In my never-ending quest to turn the Pseudoscience of college football recruiting into something a little more scientific, today we're going to look at the value of elite quarterback prospects from the Lone Star State.
Specifically, we're going to look at the five-star prospects, high four stars (6.0) and mid-four stars from the state of Texas in the 2002-2015 classes that have completed their eligibility.
A few data points to know ...
1. On the average, a five-star ranked player has somewhere between a 50-70 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A five-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a four-star prospect and between 2-3 times more likely to be drafted at all than four stars.
2. On the average, a high four-star ranked player has somewhere between a 35-60 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A high four-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a three-star prospect and twice as likely to be drafted at all over a mid four-star prospect.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Breakdown
* Five of the six players (83.3%) were drafted by NFL teams
* The only player that didn't get drafted (Shepard) actually played wide receiver in college and played seven seasons in the NFL.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2008 - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2009 - Tyrik Rollison (Auburn)
Breakdown
* Two of the 5 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: McGee (4th round) and Luck (1st round).
* The Longhorns signed only three in-state players in the top two tiers over a 15-year window of recruiting.
Mid Four Stars
2010 - Connor Wood (Texas)
2011 - J.W. Walsh (Oklahoma State)
2013 - J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
2013 - Cody Thomas (Oklahoma)
2013 - Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Jarrett Stidham (Baylor)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 8 players (25.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Stidham (4th round) and Murray (1st round)
* There are occasional exceptions to the rule when it comes to using NFL Draft data as a means of measuring the value of college players and Barrett obviously falls into that category after a sensational college career at Ohio State wasn't rewarded by NFL teams.
Measured Against Other Positions
Here are how the quarterbacks from the state of Texas compare against their in-state peers at other positions.
83.3% of five-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
44.4% of five-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of five-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of high four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of high four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
16.7% of mid four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
9.1% of mid four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
6.7% of mid four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
100% of five-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
66.7% of five-star running backs played in the NFL
50.0% of five-star linebackers played in the NFL
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen played in the NFL
60.0% of high four-star running backs played in the NFL.
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL.
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
0.0% of high four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL.
16.7% of mid four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
16.7% of mid four-star running backs played in the NFL.
13.3% of mid four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
Overall Breakdown
It kind of reflects what you'd expect a state that has put a lot quarterbacks into the NFL with regularity in the last decade or so to reflect.
It might not quite amount to a guarantee on a box, but a five-star quarterback in the state of Texas is about the closest thing you're going to find. Even the guys that don't quite pan out still play in the NFL for half a decade.
I'm not sure we'll see any of the other positions I evaluate in the coming days perform quite as well among the top-end players.
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