I expect this to be a tough series. While the Astros grabbed just their second series win of the young 2023 season at home against these same Blue Jays back in mid-April (4/17-4/19), the truth remains that Toronto comes in red hot (more on that below), and they took both series against the Astros last year, home and away. With Toronto playing at home, riding in on a hot streak, and dealing with a much easier travel schedule yesterday in leaving New York, rather than Houston, I expect this series to be a challenge.
One more thing about Toronto, the Blue Jays have been dealing with a highly contagious virus sweeping through the team that caused George Springer to drop 15 lbs. when his body was fighting off the viral infection. (Considering the ill-fortune the Astros have had this year keeping players healthy, I am less than thrilled about sending the club into this viral hot zone for four days, but it can't be helped.) Look for Dusty to be masked up. I wish the Blue Jays would, too, but I'd be shocked if they did. Considering how their team has been winning despite the illness, their own writers are starting to joke about passing the virus on to other teams, calling it part of their "home advantage." Lovely.
As for the Astros, they boast the third best road record in the Majors behind Atlanta and Baltimore who are tied at the top. Having already played at Minnesota (loss), Pittsburgh (win), Atlanta (win), Tampa Bay (win), Seattle (loss), Anaheim (win), Southside Chicago (win), Milwaukee (loss), and Oakland (win), the Astros possess a road record of 17-10 that wasn't just fashioned on the backs of lesser teams like Oakland. The Astros swept Atlanta at Truitt Park and took two of three against Tampa Bay at Tropicana. With the way Toronto has been playing lately, another road series win here would be a third feather in the cap of that ilk. Time to pluck a few Blue Jay tail feathers.
Here endeth the lesson.
A Look Back
Toronto comes in hot, having just swept the NY Mets on the road and boasting a 7-2 record over their last nine, toppling the Mets, Brewers, and Twins (in reverse order). On top of that, Toronto feels pretty great about four of their five starters—the exception being Manoah, who we're expected to face first. In addition, some recently cold bats have started coming around, including George Springer; Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.; Brandon Belt; and Dalton Varsho. Even Cavan Biggio, who went "0-for" yesterday, was making strong contact on the ball, showing signs of things coming around for him. Meanwhile, the Jays' bullpen which has been shaky at times (including when the Astros played them in April) has been solid lately, ranking 5th in the league in WHIP, K/9 and H/9; that should make for some interesting strength-on-strength match-ups in late innings, considering the Astros penchant for late-inning runs.One more thing about Toronto, the Blue Jays have been dealing with a highly contagious virus sweeping through the team that caused George Springer to drop 15 lbs. when his body was fighting off the viral infection. (Considering the ill-fortune the Astros have had this year keeping players healthy, I am less than thrilled about sending the club into this viral hot zone for four days, but it can't be helped.) Look for Dusty to be masked up. I wish the Blue Jays would, too, but I'd be shocked if they did. Considering how their team has been winning despite the illness, their own writers are starting to joke about passing the virus on to other teams, calling it part of their "home advantage." Lovely.
As for the Astros, they boast the third best road record in the Majors behind Atlanta and Baltimore who are tied at the top. Having already played at Minnesota (loss), Pittsburgh (win), Atlanta (win), Tampa Bay (win), Seattle (loss), Anaheim (win), Southside Chicago (win), Milwaukee (loss), and Oakland (win), the Astros possess a road record of 17-10 that wasn't just fashioned on the backs of lesser teams like Oakland. The Astros swept Atlanta at Truitt Park and took two of three against Tampa Bay at Tropicana. With the way Toronto has been playing lately, another road series win here would be a third feather in the cap of that ilk. Time to pluck a few Blue Jay tail feathers.
Match Ups
Game 1: Bielak v. Manoah, 6:07 CST
Despite the Astros running its sixth starter out on the mound—I mean, hey, Bielak may pitch fifth in the six-man rotation, but does anyone really see Hunter Brown as the sixth man anymore?—if Astros fans were hoping for good luck at the start of the series, facing Alek Manoah should be it. Manoah comes in with a 1-6 record and a 5.46 ERA, and he's especially vulnerable at home, where that ERA balloons almost to seven runs a game (6.83). Ironically, Manaoh has only faced the Astros once in his career and bested them last season at Minute Maid Park. It's time for some payback.Game 2: Brown v. Gausman, 6:07 CST
Gausman lost his match-up with Javier earlier this season, 9-2, but Gausman has been much more imposing at home this season, where his 2.76 ERA overall sits at 1.72 at home (versus 3.76 on the road). While Hunter Brown is inversely stronger on the road than at home (which is a plus in this match up), he is also much better in day games than night games so far, which is unfortunate. However, the same is true of Gausman, but even more so. Gausman boasts a miniscule 0.39 ERA in day games this year, but a whopping 6.67 ERA in night games. Hurray for the evening start time. (Remember, Toronto is also an hour ahead.)Game 3: Blanco v. Bassitt, 6:07 CST
This match up could change, which would be nice. Bassitt's wife gave birth to their child, a son, over the weekend while Bassitt was beating up the Mets. (In fact, he straight mowed them down, allowing three hits in eight quick innings before rushing straight to the airport to fly back to Toronto to be with his wife.) There’s a chance Bassitt will skip this series for paternity leave, which would be a boon for the Astros who failed to score any runs against him over 6.1 innings in a loss earlier this season. Bassitt (3.41 ERA) has been good everywhere this season, but better at home (2.16 ERA) and at night (1.17 ERA). Meanwhile, Blanco would be making just his second start in the Major Leagues, so advantage Toronto... big time. That is, if Bassitt pitches; he might not. (Also of note, Blanco has one outing against Toronto last year in relief. He pitched two-thirds of an inning, not allowing either batter—Alejando Kirk or George Springer—to reach base.)Game 4: Valdez v. Berrios, 6:07 CST
Framber Day. Advantage Astros. With a perfect 4-0 record on the road, and a 2.25 ERA away, Framber enters this match up a winner of his last five starts, having most recently tossed seven full innings against the Angels without allowing a run and garnering more strikeouts (7) than he allowed hits (5). Meanwhile, Framber is a little stronger at home than on the road and a little stronger in day games than night games, but it's basically a wash. Talk about a model of consistency so far this season. Everyone here knows: La Grasa is a stud. As for Berrios, his overall numbers are no match for Valdez, but his home numbers are. At home, Berrios is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. Toronto has won all three of his most recent starts and four of his last five. In addition, he tossed seven full innings against Houston earlier this year, allowing two runs on three hits in a losing effort. I like Houston in this one, but expect it to be a battle.In Summation
This series looks like a tight match-up on paper. I like our chances best at the beginning and end, despite the disadvantages of the travel day after the game yesterday and having to play a team with homefield advantage that has been playing strong baseball lately. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to find myself passing along thread-starting duties to someone else in a few days. We'll see. For my part, I most want our players to get out of town without catching whatever illness has been plauging the Blue Jays. I mean, sure, they're playing good baseball now despite the illnesses, but this non-COVID illness has been circulating in their clubhouse since Spring Training, and they've only recently started to play their best baseball, in part because of the way it set them back. So, no thank you! We don't want any! (Baseball Gods, we pray to you for mercy, benevolence, and health.) If we can get out of town healthy (and stay healthy in the days afterward), that's all to the better. If we can take the series while we're at it, that will be glorious. Let's be glorious this week.From the Book of Framber
"The weapons we fight with are not the weapons of the world. On the contrary, the Baseball Gods have bestowed upon the Astros superhuman arms and bats that have glorious power to demolish strongholds." (Framber, Chapter 6, Verse 5)Here endeth the lesson.
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