We are pretty clearly not going to have a full idea of the outcome of the election early on Election Day. But we can get a good idea of how it will go from the exit polling, which is FAR more accurate that the pre-election polls.
The exit polls never release actual candidate v candidate totals. They won't say in NC, Trump 50.0, Harris 49.5 or whatever. But you can use the data within them to get that. Here's how. I'll use the 2016 PA poll. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/pennsylvania/president
And don't gripe about it being CNN. All of the media (including Fox) pool together to get one set of exit polling. It's the same people, and the data is the same on all networks.
In that poll, party ID went D 42, R 39, I 20. Hillary took 87% of Dems, 9% of Rs, and 41% of Is. Add those percentages up.
.42 x .87 plus .39 x .09 plus .20 x .41 = 48.25%
Trump was .42 x .11 plus .39 x .89 plus .20 x .48 = 48.93%
Per the exit poll, Trump won by 0.68 points.
Actual was R 48.18, D 47.46%. Actual margin: R+0.72 points.
For reference, exit polls from 2020
NC Exit poll R+1.9, actual R+1.3
PA Exit poll D+1.5, actual D+1.2
MI Exit poll D+3.6, actual D+2.8
WI Exit poll D+0.9, actual D+0.7
TX Exit poll R+7.1, actual R+5.6
It's not exact, for sure, but very close. My question is how they get this so close. Must be something with the sample sizes. Anyway, they release these polls in each state after the polls close. So we can use them election night to make a decent guess. In 2016, I knew Trump had won before 10 PM, because of these polls. Same in 2020, for Biden.
The exit polls never release actual candidate v candidate totals. They won't say in NC, Trump 50.0, Harris 49.5 or whatever. But you can use the data within them to get that. Here's how. I'll use the 2016 PA poll. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/pennsylvania/president
And don't gripe about it being CNN. All of the media (including Fox) pool together to get one set of exit polling. It's the same people, and the data is the same on all networks.
In that poll, party ID went D 42, R 39, I 20. Hillary took 87% of Dems, 9% of Rs, and 41% of Is. Add those percentages up.
.42 x .87 plus .39 x .09 plus .20 x .41 = 48.25%
Trump was .42 x .11 plus .39 x .89 plus .20 x .48 = 48.93%
Per the exit poll, Trump won by 0.68 points.
Actual was R 48.18, D 47.46%. Actual margin: R+0.72 points.
For reference, exit polls from 2020
NC Exit poll R+1.9, actual R+1.3
PA Exit poll D+1.5, actual D+1.2
MI Exit poll D+3.6, actual D+2.8
WI Exit poll D+0.9, actual D+0.7
TX Exit poll R+7.1, actual R+5.6
It's not exact, for sure, but very close. My question is how they get this so close. Must be something with the sample sizes. Anyway, they release these polls in each state after the polls close. So we can use them election night to make a decent guess. In 2016, I knew Trump had won before 10 PM, because of these polls. Same in 2020, for Biden.
