I'm not sure that we can point to any one thing as the reason why the Tom Herman era in Austin ended in very little fanfare.
Believe me, it was a lot of things and you don't need me to rattle them off for you.
Yet, one thing stood out to me as I was updating my defensive back data numbers after a two-year hiatus of doing so... the 6-man 2018 DB class, which regarded in real time as one of the best in the history of the Texas program might be remembered as much for the disappointments as the hits.
Is that fair?
Let's just examine this for a moment.
* Caden Sterns was a 5-star by both Rivals and 247.
* BJ Foster was ranked as a 5-star by ESPN.
* DeMarvion Overshown was a 5-star by 247.
* Jalen Green was ranked as a 5-star by 247.
* Anthony Cook was a high 4-star by Rivals.
The lowest-rated of the bunch was D'Shawn Jamison, who was ranked No.95 in the nation by ESPN.
Every single kid in the class was regarded as a national top 100 prospect by at least one recruiting service and 4 of the 6 were regarded as 5-star prospects by at least one recruiting service.
It was an absolute spectacular class on paper. In the end... two draft picks, two transfers and two rock solid contributing players.
Ultimately, there are two things I feel like that group teaches us:
a. You have to recruit at high levels on an annual basis and it wasn't this class that hurt the Longhorns as much as going 1 for 11 (Jahdae Barron) on defensive backs from 2019-2021 did.
b. This class kind of did was the data suggested should be expected.
Take a look...
The data tell us that super blue chip defensive backs hit on being an NFL drafted player between 40-50% of the time and the Longhorns ended up going 2 for 4 on the players that were ranked by at least one service as a 5-star. Meanwhile, the other two players who didn't transfer were solid, but not spectacular (outside of special teams). Two others have to be considered busts.
Perhaps most interesting is the conversation we can have about the two players that were five-season contributors, but not top-end players... Cook and Jamison. They are poster boys for naysayers of my research who will claim that these two players were drafted but were multi-season starters in college. My naysayers will claim that my data doesn't account for players exactly like this.
Meanwhile, the spin from the other side of the argument is that neither player was so good on the field that the coaches wouldn't ultimately want and need upgrades to complete at the highest levels in the sport. Just how many pearls should be clutched in the name of making sure Cook and Jamison are historically counted as moderate successes?
Just something I was thinking about on a Friday afternoon before my mom picks the kids up for a sleepover.
Let's move on and look at the rankings history inside the state of Texas..
Five-stars
2002 - Edorian McCulloch (Texas)
2007 - Curtis Brown (Texas)
2009 - Craig Loston (LSU)
2014 - Tony Brown (Alabama)
2017 - Jeffery Okudah (Ohio State)
2018 - Caden Sterns (Texas)
2019 - Erick Young (Texas A&M)
2020 - Jaylon Jones (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 4 of 8 players (50.0%) were drafted by NFL teams. Curtis Brown (3rd round), Okudah (1st round), Sterns (5th round) and Jones (7th round)
* 6 of 8 players (75.0%) have played on Sundays in the NFL: Brown, Okudah, Loston, Brown, Sterns and Jones.
Active players: Texas A&M's Denver Harris (2022), Georgia's Julian Humphrey (2022), Oklahoma's Peyton Bowen (2023) and Texas' Xavier Filsaime (2024)
High four stars
2003 - Tarell Brown (Texas)
2003 - Tony Cade (Oklahoma)
2003 - Michael Griffin (Texas)
2004 - Andrew Kelson (Texas)
2006 - Chykie Brown (Texas)
2008 - Aaron Williams (Texas)
2008 - D.J. Monroe (Texas)
2009 - Kevin Brent (Oklahoma)
2014 - Dylan Sumner-Gardner (Boise State)
2014 - Nick Harvey (Texas A&M)
2014 - Edward Paris (LSU)
2014 - Jamal Adams (LSU)
2015 - Deionte Thompson (Alabama)
2015 - Kendall Sheffield (Alabama/Ohio State)
2018 -B.J. Foster (Texas/Sam Houston St.)
2018 - Jalen Green (Texas/Miss State)
2018 - Anthiony Cook (Texas)
2019 - Lewis Cine (Georgia)
2019 - Marcus Banks (Alabama/Miss State)
2019 - Tyler Owens (Texas/Texas Tech)
Breakdown
* 8 of 20 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Tarell Brown (5th), Griffin (1st), Chykie Brown (5th), Williams (2nd), Adams (1st round), Thompson (5th round) Sheffield (4th round) and Cine (1st round)
* There are six active players still in college football: Texas' Terrance Brooks (2022), Texas' Malik Muhammad (2023), Ohio State's Calvin Simpson-Hunt (2023), LSU's Javien Toviano (2023), Texas' Kobe Black (2024) and Oregon's Aaron Flowers (2024)
Mid Four Stars
2006 - Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State)
2007 - Christian Scott (Texas)
2007 - Ben Wells (Texas)
2008 - Joseph Ibeloye (Oklahoma)
2009 - Marcus Davis (Texas)
2010 - Ahmad Dixon (Baylor)
2011 - Quandre Diggs (Texas)
2012 - laDarrell McNeil (Tennessee)
2012 - Devante Harris (Texas A&M)
2013 - Antwuan Davis (Texas)
2013 - Maurice Smith (Ohio State)
2013 - Kameron Miles (Texas A&M)
2014 - Edwin Freeman (Texas)
2015 - Roney Elam - (Texas A&M)
2015 - Holton Hill (Texas)
2015 - Larry Pryor (Texas A&M)
2015 - Kris Boyd (Texas)
2015 - Justin Dunning (Texas A&M)
2016 - Parrish Cobb (Oklahoma)
2016 - Brandon Jones (Texas)
2016 - Eric Monroe (LSU)
2016 - Jared Mayden (Alabama)
2016 - Deontay Anderson (Ole Miss/Houston)
2017 - Chevin Calloway (Arkansas)
2017 - Derrick Tucker (Texas A&M)
2017 - Robert Barnes (Oklahoma/Colorado)
2018 - Leon O'Neal (Texas A&M)
2018 - DeMarvion Overshown (Texas)
2019 - Demani Richardson (Texas A&M)
2019 - Brian Williams (Texas A&M)
2020 - Dwight McGlothern (2020)
Breakdown
* 6 of 31 players (19.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Cox (5th round), Dixon (7th round), Diggs (6th round), Boyd (7th round), Brandon Jones (3rd round), Overshown (3rd)
* Two others (25.8%) have played on Sundays in the NFL: Devante Harris and Holton Hill
* The active mid four-star prospects are Jahari Rodgers (2020), Xavion Alford (2020), Latrell McCutchin (2021), Deuce Harmon (2021), JD Coffey (2021), Bryce Anderson (2022), Jaylon Guilbeau (2022), Bravion Rogers (2023), Jayvon Thomas (2023), Selman Bridges (2024) and Corian Gipson (2024)
Low Four Stars
2004 - Bobby Tatum (Texas)
2005 - Ishie Oduegwu (Texas)
2006 - Jonathan Nelson (Oklahoma)
2006 - Leonard Hewitt (Texas Tech)
2006 - Robert Joseph (Texas)
2006 - Daniel Johnson (Texas Tech)
2006 - Malcolm Williams (Oklahoma)
2006 - Anthony Webb (Kansas)
2006 - Terrance Anderson (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jordan Pugh (Texas A&M)
2007 - Desmond Jackson (Oklahoma)
2007 - Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma)
2008 - Victor Johnson (Oklahoma State)
2008 - Keenan Cooper (Minnesota)
2008 - David Whitmore (Nebraska)
2008 - Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State)
2009 - Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
2009 - Eryon barnett (Texas)
2009 - Steve Williams (Oklahoma)
2009 - Jurell Thompson. (TCU)
2009 - Demontre Hurst (OKlahoma)
2009 - Prinz Kande (Kansas)
2009 - Marcus Trice (Oklahoma)
2010 - Tyler Stephenson (Baylor)
2010 - Bryant Jackson (Texas)
2010 - Eddrick Loften (Oklahoma)
2010 - Tristen Holt (Missouri)
2010 - James Haynes (OKlahoma)
2010 - Carrington Byndom (Texas)
2011 - Charles Jackson (Nebraska)
2011 - David Jenkins (LSU)
2011 - Howard Matthews (Texas A&M)
2011 - Sheroid Evans (Texas)
2011 - Tevin Mitchell (Arkansas)
2012 - Colin Blake (FSU)
2012 - Justin Thomas (Utah)
2012 - Bryson Echols (Texas)
2013 - Tavares Garner (Texas A&M)
2014 - Armani Watts (Texas A&M)
2014 - Brandon Simmons (Stanford)
2014 - Nick Watkins (Notre Dame)
2014 - Josh Butler (Michigan State)
2015 - PJ Mbanasor (Oklahoma)
2015 - DeShon Elliott (Texas)
2015 - Prentice McKInney (Oklahoma)
2015 - Kahlil Haughton (Oklahoma)
2016 - Jaylon Jones (Ole Miss)
2017 - Kary Vincent (LSU)
2017 - Josh Thompson (Texas)
2017 - Myles Jones (Texas A&M)
2018 - Atanza Vongor (TCU)
2018 - Verone McKinley (Oregon)
2018 - Starrland Baldwin (Oklahoma)
2018 - Cam Jones (Nebraska)
2018 - Byron Hanspard (Baylor)
2018 - D'Shawn Jamison (Texas)
2018 - Trent Gordon (Penn State/Arkansas)
2018 - Gemon Green (Michigan)
2019 - Jeffery Carter (Alabama)
2020 - Chis Thompson (Auburn/USC)
2020 - Ryan Watts (Ohio State/Texas)
2020 - Christian Gonzales (Colorado/Oregon)
Breakdown
* 11 of 62 players (17.7%) were drafted by NFL teams: Nelson (7th round), Pugh (6th round), Fleming (3rd round), Martin (6th round), Vaccaro (1st round), Mitchell (6th round), Armani Watts (4th round), Elliott (6th round), Vincent (7th round), Ryan Watts (6th round) and Gonzales (1st round)
* 2 others (21.0%) has played on Sundays in the NFL: Byndom and Jamison
*Active players: Jalen Catalon (2019), Jamal Morris (2019), Bryson Washington (2020), Kitan Crawford (2020), Joshua Eaton (2020), Avery Helm (2020), Jerrin Thompson (2020), Jalen Kimber (2020), Hunter Washington (2021), Andrew Mukuba (2021), Ishmael Ibraheem (2021), Austin Jordan (2022), Bobby Taylor (2022), Chace Biddle (2022), Bryan Alen Jr. (2022), Marcus Scott II (2022), Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (2022), C.J. Blocker (2023), Warren Roberson (2023), Jordan Sanford (2023), Braxton Myers (2023), Ryan Yaites (2023), Jaylon Braxton (2023), Javeon Wilcox (2023), Tyler Turner (2023), Tay'shawn Wilson (2023), Leonard Moore (2024), Myles Davis (2024), Maurice Williams (2024), Dontaew Carter (2024), Peyton Morgan (2024), Jaydan Hardy (2024), Braylon Conley (2024), Tony-Louis Nkuba (2024) and Eli Bowen (2024)
Believe me, it was a lot of things and you don't need me to rattle them off for you.
Yet, one thing stood out to me as I was updating my defensive back data numbers after a two-year hiatus of doing so... the 6-man 2018 DB class, which regarded in real time as one of the best in the history of the Texas program might be remembered as much for the disappointments as the hits.
Is that fair?
Let's just examine this for a moment.
* Caden Sterns was a 5-star by both Rivals and 247.
* BJ Foster was ranked as a 5-star by ESPN.
* DeMarvion Overshown was a 5-star by 247.
* Jalen Green was ranked as a 5-star by 247.
* Anthony Cook was a high 4-star by Rivals.
The lowest-rated of the bunch was D'Shawn Jamison, who was ranked No.95 in the nation by ESPN.
Every single kid in the class was regarded as a national top 100 prospect by at least one recruiting service and 4 of the 6 were regarded as 5-star prospects by at least one recruiting service.
It was an absolute spectacular class on paper. In the end... two draft picks, two transfers and two rock solid contributing players.
Ultimately, there are two things I feel like that group teaches us:
a. You have to recruit at high levels on an annual basis and it wasn't this class that hurt the Longhorns as much as going 1 for 11 (Jahdae Barron) on defensive backs from 2019-2021 did.
b. This class kind of did was the data suggested should be expected.
Take a look...
The data tell us that super blue chip defensive backs hit on being an NFL drafted player between 40-50% of the time and the Longhorns ended up going 2 for 4 on the players that were ranked by at least one service as a 5-star. Meanwhile, the other two players who didn't transfer were solid, but not spectacular (outside of special teams). Two others have to be considered busts.
Perhaps most interesting is the conversation we can have about the two players that were five-season contributors, but not top-end players... Cook and Jamison. They are poster boys for naysayers of my research who will claim that these two players were drafted but were multi-season starters in college. My naysayers will claim that my data doesn't account for players exactly like this.
Meanwhile, the spin from the other side of the argument is that neither player was so good on the field that the coaches wouldn't ultimately want and need upgrades to complete at the highest levels in the sport. Just how many pearls should be clutched in the name of making sure Cook and Jamison are historically counted as moderate successes?
Just something I was thinking about on a Friday afternoon before my mom picks the kids up for a sleepover.
Let's move on and look at the rankings history inside the state of Texas..
Five-stars
2002 - Edorian McCulloch (Texas)
2007 - Curtis Brown (Texas)
2009 - Craig Loston (LSU)
2014 - Tony Brown (Alabama)
2017 - Jeffery Okudah (Ohio State)
2018 - Caden Sterns (Texas)
2019 - Erick Young (Texas A&M)
2020 - Jaylon Jones (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 4 of 8 players (50.0%) were drafted by NFL teams. Curtis Brown (3rd round), Okudah (1st round), Sterns (5th round) and Jones (7th round)
* 6 of 8 players (75.0%) have played on Sundays in the NFL: Brown, Okudah, Loston, Brown, Sterns and Jones.
Active players: Texas A&M's Denver Harris (2022), Georgia's Julian Humphrey (2022), Oklahoma's Peyton Bowen (2023) and Texas' Xavier Filsaime (2024)
High four stars
2003 - Tarell Brown (Texas)
2003 - Tony Cade (Oklahoma)
2003 - Michael Griffin (Texas)
2004 - Andrew Kelson (Texas)
2006 - Chykie Brown (Texas)
2008 - Aaron Williams (Texas)
2008 - D.J. Monroe (Texas)
2009 - Kevin Brent (Oklahoma)
2014 - Dylan Sumner-Gardner (Boise State)
2014 - Nick Harvey (Texas A&M)
2014 - Edward Paris (LSU)
2014 - Jamal Adams (LSU)
2015 - Deionte Thompson (Alabama)
2015 - Kendall Sheffield (Alabama/Ohio State)
2018 -B.J. Foster (Texas/Sam Houston St.)
2018 - Jalen Green (Texas/Miss State)
2018 - Anthiony Cook (Texas)
2019 - Lewis Cine (Georgia)
2019 - Marcus Banks (Alabama/Miss State)
2019 - Tyler Owens (Texas/Texas Tech)
Breakdown
* 8 of 20 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Tarell Brown (5th), Griffin (1st), Chykie Brown (5th), Williams (2nd), Adams (1st round), Thompson (5th round) Sheffield (4th round) and Cine (1st round)
* There are six active players still in college football: Texas' Terrance Brooks (2022), Texas' Malik Muhammad (2023), Ohio State's Calvin Simpson-Hunt (2023), LSU's Javien Toviano (2023), Texas' Kobe Black (2024) and Oregon's Aaron Flowers (2024)
Mid Four Stars
2006 - Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State)
2007 - Christian Scott (Texas)
2007 - Ben Wells (Texas)
2008 - Joseph Ibeloye (Oklahoma)
2009 - Marcus Davis (Texas)
2010 - Ahmad Dixon (Baylor)
2011 - Quandre Diggs (Texas)
2012 - laDarrell McNeil (Tennessee)
2012 - Devante Harris (Texas A&M)
2013 - Antwuan Davis (Texas)
2013 - Maurice Smith (Ohio State)
2013 - Kameron Miles (Texas A&M)
2014 - Edwin Freeman (Texas)
2015 - Roney Elam - (Texas A&M)
2015 - Holton Hill (Texas)
2015 - Larry Pryor (Texas A&M)
2015 - Kris Boyd (Texas)
2015 - Justin Dunning (Texas A&M)
2016 - Parrish Cobb (Oklahoma)
2016 - Brandon Jones (Texas)
2016 - Eric Monroe (LSU)
2016 - Jared Mayden (Alabama)
2016 - Deontay Anderson (Ole Miss/Houston)
2017 - Chevin Calloway (Arkansas)
2017 - Derrick Tucker (Texas A&M)
2017 - Robert Barnes (Oklahoma/Colorado)
2018 - Leon O'Neal (Texas A&M)
2018 - DeMarvion Overshown (Texas)
2019 - Demani Richardson (Texas A&M)
2019 - Brian Williams (Texas A&M)
2020 - Dwight McGlothern (2020)
Breakdown
* 6 of 31 players (19.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Cox (5th round), Dixon (7th round), Diggs (6th round), Boyd (7th round), Brandon Jones (3rd round), Overshown (3rd)
* Two others (25.8%) have played on Sundays in the NFL: Devante Harris and Holton Hill
* The active mid four-star prospects are Jahari Rodgers (2020), Xavion Alford (2020), Latrell McCutchin (2021), Deuce Harmon (2021), JD Coffey (2021), Bryce Anderson (2022), Jaylon Guilbeau (2022), Bravion Rogers (2023), Jayvon Thomas (2023), Selman Bridges (2024) and Corian Gipson (2024)
Low Four Stars
2004 - Bobby Tatum (Texas)
2005 - Ishie Oduegwu (Texas)
2006 - Jonathan Nelson (Oklahoma)
2006 - Leonard Hewitt (Texas Tech)
2006 - Robert Joseph (Texas)
2006 - Daniel Johnson (Texas Tech)
2006 - Malcolm Williams (Oklahoma)
2006 - Anthony Webb (Kansas)
2006 - Terrance Anderson (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jordan Pugh (Texas A&M)
2007 - Desmond Jackson (Oklahoma)
2007 - Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma)
2008 - Victor Johnson (Oklahoma State)
2008 - Keenan Cooper (Minnesota)
2008 - David Whitmore (Nebraska)
2008 - Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State)
2009 - Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
2009 - Eryon barnett (Texas)
2009 - Steve Williams (Oklahoma)
2009 - Jurell Thompson. (TCU)
2009 - Demontre Hurst (OKlahoma)
2009 - Prinz Kande (Kansas)
2009 - Marcus Trice (Oklahoma)
2010 - Tyler Stephenson (Baylor)
2010 - Bryant Jackson (Texas)
2010 - Eddrick Loften (Oklahoma)
2010 - Tristen Holt (Missouri)
2010 - James Haynes (OKlahoma)
2010 - Carrington Byndom (Texas)
2011 - Charles Jackson (Nebraska)
2011 - David Jenkins (LSU)
2011 - Howard Matthews (Texas A&M)
2011 - Sheroid Evans (Texas)
2011 - Tevin Mitchell (Arkansas)
2012 - Colin Blake (FSU)
2012 - Justin Thomas (Utah)
2012 - Bryson Echols (Texas)
2013 - Tavares Garner (Texas A&M)
2014 - Armani Watts (Texas A&M)
2014 - Brandon Simmons (Stanford)
2014 - Nick Watkins (Notre Dame)
2014 - Josh Butler (Michigan State)
2015 - PJ Mbanasor (Oklahoma)
2015 - DeShon Elliott (Texas)
2015 - Prentice McKInney (Oklahoma)
2015 - Kahlil Haughton (Oklahoma)
2016 - Jaylon Jones (Ole Miss)
2017 - Kary Vincent (LSU)
2017 - Josh Thompson (Texas)
2017 - Myles Jones (Texas A&M)
2018 - Atanza Vongor (TCU)
2018 - Verone McKinley (Oregon)
2018 - Starrland Baldwin (Oklahoma)
2018 - Cam Jones (Nebraska)
2018 - Byron Hanspard (Baylor)
2018 - D'Shawn Jamison (Texas)
2018 - Trent Gordon (Penn State/Arkansas)
2018 - Gemon Green (Michigan)
2019 - Jeffery Carter (Alabama)
2020 - Chis Thompson (Auburn/USC)
2020 - Ryan Watts (Ohio State/Texas)
2020 - Christian Gonzales (Colorado/Oregon)
Breakdown
* 11 of 62 players (17.7%) were drafted by NFL teams: Nelson (7th round), Pugh (6th round), Fleming (3rd round), Martin (6th round), Vaccaro (1st round), Mitchell (6th round), Armani Watts (4th round), Elliott (6th round), Vincent (7th round), Ryan Watts (6th round) and Gonzales (1st round)
* 2 others (21.0%) has played on Sundays in the NFL: Byndom and Jamison
*Active players: Jalen Catalon (2019), Jamal Morris (2019), Bryson Washington (2020), Kitan Crawford (2020), Joshua Eaton (2020), Avery Helm (2020), Jerrin Thompson (2020), Jalen Kimber (2020), Hunter Washington (2021), Andrew Mukuba (2021), Ishmael Ibraheem (2021), Austin Jordan (2022), Bobby Taylor (2022), Chace Biddle (2022), Bryan Alen Jr. (2022), Marcus Scott II (2022), Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (2022), C.J. Blocker (2023), Warren Roberson (2023), Jordan Sanford (2023), Braxton Myers (2023), Ryan Yaites (2023), Jaylon Braxton (2023), Javeon Wilcox (2023), Tyler Turner (2023), Tay'shawn Wilson (2023), Leonard Moore (2024), Myles Davis (2024), Maurice Williams (2024), Dontaew Carter (2024), Peyton Morgan (2024), Jaydan Hardy (2024), Braylon Conley (2024), Tony-Louis Nkuba (2024) and Eli Bowen (2024)
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