The 4th of July was a working holiday for many university administrators trying to figure out the new college football landscape after USC and UCLA shocked the world last week and announced the schools were leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. Oh sure, they may have had some BBQ with family, taken a dip in the pool or watched a fireworks show that night, but make no mistake, many of them were also making phone calls and hopping on Zoom meetings.
The latest news comes from CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodds, who has reported that the Big XII is in deep negotiations to add up to six Pac-12 schools. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are the leading candidates to join the Big XII, according to Dodds. He is also reporting that Oregon and Washington could also be in the mix, although both have also expressed interest in joining the B1G. Stanford may also be in consideration as a partner for Notre Dame, if the Irish finally joins the conference.
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 is also negotiating with the ACC on a "loose partnership" (meaning some kind of soft merger) that could include a championship game in Las Vegas. The move would be intended to renegotiate deals with ESPN.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN FOR UT & OU?
Texas and OU secured their seats at the adults table when they made the decision last summer to join the SEC. UT is already seeing the recruiting rewards of being in the SEC. Multiple commitments have already stated how important it is to them that Texas in the SEC. And he may not have said it himself, but I have zero doubt in my mind that Arch Manning is not picking UT if the Horns weren’t headed to the Southeast.
But both schools insist, at least publicly, that the move to the SEC won’t happen until the Big XII’s current grant of rights expires in 2025. Many fans are hopeful the current upheaval will pave the way for the Red River rivals to make the move earlier, and it just may, but that path remains murky for now.
The best case scenario for UT and OU has always been that the remaining eight Big XII schools would find new homes, thereby dissolving the conference and its grant of rights altogether. But the Pac-12 was always probably the best hope for that to happen and the Pac-12 administrators decided last summer that they were better off standing pat and not scooping up the best of the remaining Big XII leftovers. Boy were they wrong!
Now, the tables have turned and the Big XII is the one looking at the possibility of scooping up the leftovers to form a stronger conference. You can bet they won’t make the same mistake the Pac-12 administrators made, but they better act fast before the Pac-12 goes further east and joins up with the ACC.
If the Big XII scoops up four to six Pac-12 schools then they’ll be in a much stronger position and will have no need to concede any revenue from UT and OU’s grant of rights.
That means that Texas and OU administrators hoping to make the move to the SEC early without a penalty need to hope the negotiations between the Big XII schools and the Pac-12 schools results in some sort of merger or an entirely new conference.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE TV DOLLARS
Make no mistake, conference realignment is being driven by Fox Sports and ESPN. The two college football television giants are pulling the strings in order to maximize ratings, especially in the biggest television markets.
USC and UCLA bring the Los Angeles market to Fox Sports (which controls most of the Big Ten’s television rights). That’s obviously important for the Fox Sports executives from a ratings/advertising revenue perspective. Of course you can’t discount the fact that Fox Sports is also headquartered in LA so it is the home market for those execs.
TV rights negotiations are going on right now with the Big Ten. When the contracts are all signed, member schools can expect to receive more than $100 million dollars annually. That will only further the economic divide between the haves and the have nots.
The Pac-12 board responded Tuesday by voting to begin negotiating a new TV rights deal, which is set to expire in the summer of 2024. The hope from conference board members is that they can secure a deal big enough to satisfy skittish members worried about the growing revenue disparity.
The Pac-12 was looking at making $500 million per year (roughly $40 million per school) when the new tv deal was signed. But that was before USC and UCLA bailed. Now, a former Fox Sports executive told John Canzano, a prominent college football writer in Portland, that a deal without them would drop to about $300 million per year (roughly $30 million per school).
That's why the Pac-12 also agreed to look into expansion. The problem is, what school could they realistically hope to add which would bring in enough value to broadcasting partners to justify paying more money? San Diego State has been frequently talked about as a replacement for USC and UCLA in order to retain the Southern California TV markets. But how many people are tuning in for Aztec games? (Spoiler, it’s a lot fewer than the number of people tuning in to watch UCLA … which was already not a lot.)
The Big XII is in the same boat. Its television rights expire the year after the Pac-12 (2025) and without UT and OU, the conference has no anchor school capable of bringing in viewers week in and week out. Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, etc. only draw big ratings when they are playing UT or OU. Even then the Horns and Sooners have to be having a good season or the games get shunted off to Fox Sports 1, ESPNU or the Longhorn Network and the ratings drop significantly.
The problem with the calculus of the Big XII simply adding more schools is that the ratings aren’t likely to justify a significant jump in revenue. There will be even more mouths to feed if the two conferences merge creating a mega-conference of mediocrity.
THE SOLUTION THAT MAKES THE MOST $EN$E
If University presidents in the leftover Big XII and Pac-12 schools want to narrow the revenue chasm that is growing between them and the SEC and B1G conferences, then they need to create an entirely new conference. Even better, the best of the Big XII, Pac-12 and ACC should all form a third new super conference.
The hope would be that an entirely new conference made up of the strongest remaining football schools can create a bidding war for their media rights. To do that, they’ll need interest from outlets beyond just ESPN and Fox Sports.
CBS has lost its deal with the SEC (which reaped the network a lot of money over the years). NBC could be on the verge of losing its deal with Notre Dame (especially if the Fighting Irish eventually concede and join the Big Ten). Both are said to be still in the market for college football rights.
The same dynamics that make college football attractive to ESPN and Fox Sports also apply to CBS and NBC as well. They are live sporting events broadcast to a captive audience.
Add in the non-traditional broadcasters such as Amazon Prime and you have the potential to close the revenue gap between this new entity and the SEC and B1G. (You can’t erase the gap but narrowing the chasm is the goal.)
What’s more, creating a new conference will allow the new conference to cut some of its dead weight. It’s time for the presidents of some of the schools in the Big XII to pull a Cobra Kai and show no mercy. Sorry Oregon State, Kansas State et. al., you simply don’t bring enough to the table to warrant a seat in the new conference.
College Football is moving to a new, leaner top tier of teams and this new conference needs to be focused entirely on the best football it can deliver, in the best media markets.
College presidents from Clemson to Lubbock to Eugene all need to be on the phones this week discussing what their new conference will look like, and how quickly they can get new media rights deals in place. Anything less than that will leave some big universities on without a chair to sit in when the realignment music stops.
The latest news comes from CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodds, who has reported that the Big XII is in deep negotiations to add up to six Pac-12 schools. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are the leading candidates to join the Big XII, according to Dodds. He is also reporting that Oregon and Washington could also be in the mix, although both have also expressed interest in joining the B1G. Stanford may also be in consideration as a partner for Notre Dame, if the Irish finally joins the conference.
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 is also negotiating with the ACC on a "loose partnership" (meaning some kind of soft merger) that could include a championship game in Las Vegas. The move would be intended to renegotiate deals with ESPN.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN FOR UT & OU?
Texas and OU secured their seats at the adults table when they made the decision last summer to join the SEC. UT is already seeing the recruiting rewards of being in the SEC. Multiple commitments have already stated how important it is to them that Texas in the SEC. And he may not have said it himself, but I have zero doubt in my mind that Arch Manning is not picking UT if the Horns weren’t headed to the Southeast.
But both schools insist, at least publicly, that the move to the SEC won’t happen until the Big XII’s current grant of rights expires in 2025. Many fans are hopeful the current upheaval will pave the way for the Red River rivals to make the move earlier, and it just may, but that path remains murky for now.
The best case scenario for UT and OU has always been that the remaining eight Big XII schools would find new homes, thereby dissolving the conference and its grant of rights altogether. But the Pac-12 was always probably the best hope for that to happen and the Pac-12 administrators decided last summer that they were better off standing pat and not scooping up the best of the remaining Big XII leftovers. Boy were they wrong!
Now, the tables have turned and the Big XII is the one looking at the possibility of scooping up the leftovers to form a stronger conference. You can bet they won’t make the same mistake the Pac-12 administrators made, but they better act fast before the Pac-12 goes further east and joins up with the ACC.
If the Big XII scoops up four to six Pac-12 schools then they’ll be in a much stronger position and will have no need to concede any revenue from UT and OU’s grant of rights.
That means that Texas and OU administrators hoping to make the move to the SEC early without a penalty need to hope the negotiations between the Big XII schools and the Pac-12 schools results in some sort of merger or an entirely new conference.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE TV DOLLARS
Make no mistake, conference realignment is being driven by Fox Sports and ESPN. The two college football television giants are pulling the strings in order to maximize ratings, especially in the biggest television markets.
USC and UCLA bring the Los Angeles market to Fox Sports (which controls most of the Big Ten’s television rights). That’s obviously important for the Fox Sports executives from a ratings/advertising revenue perspective. Of course you can’t discount the fact that Fox Sports is also headquartered in LA so it is the home market for those execs.
TV rights negotiations are going on right now with the Big Ten. When the contracts are all signed, member schools can expect to receive more than $100 million dollars annually. That will only further the economic divide between the haves and the have nots.
The Pac-12 board responded Tuesday by voting to begin negotiating a new TV rights deal, which is set to expire in the summer of 2024. The hope from conference board members is that they can secure a deal big enough to satisfy skittish members worried about the growing revenue disparity.
The Pac-12 was looking at making $500 million per year (roughly $40 million per school) when the new tv deal was signed. But that was before USC and UCLA bailed. Now, a former Fox Sports executive told John Canzano, a prominent college football writer in Portland, that a deal without them would drop to about $300 million per year (roughly $30 million per school).
That's why the Pac-12 also agreed to look into expansion. The problem is, what school could they realistically hope to add which would bring in enough value to broadcasting partners to justify paying more money? San Diego State has been frequently talked about as a replacement for USC and UCLA in order to retain the Southern California TV markets. But how many people are tuning in for Aztec games? (Spoiler, it’s a lot fewer than the number of people tuning in to watch UCLA … which was already not a lot.)
The Big XII is in the same boat. Its television rights expire the year after the Pac-12 (2025) and without UT and OU, the conference has no anchor school capable of bringing in viewers week in and week out. Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, etc. only draw big ratings when they are playing UT or OU. Even then the Horns and Sooners have to be having a good season or the games get shunted off to Fox Sports 1, ESPNU or the Longhorn Network and the ratings drop significantly.
The problem with the calculus of the Big XII simply adding more schools is that the ratings aren’t likely to justify a significant jump in revenue. There will be even more mouths to feed if the two conferences merge creating a mega-conference of mediocrity.
THE SOLUTION THAT MAKES THE MOST $EN$E
If University presidents in the leftover Big XII and Pac-12 schools want to narrow the revenue chasm that is growing between them and the SEC and B1G conferences, then they need to create an entirely new conference. Even better, the best of the Big XII, Pac-12 and ACC should all form a third new super conference.
The hope would be that an entirely new conference made up of the strongest remaining football schools can create a bidding war for their media rights. To do that, they’ll need interest from outlets beyond just ESPN and Fox Sports.
CBS has lost its deal with the SEC (which reaped the network a lot of money over the years). NBC could be on the verge of losing its deal with Notre Dame (especially if the Fighting Irish eventually concede and join the Big Ten). Both are said to be still in the market for college football rights.
The same dynamics that make college football attractive to ESPN and Fox Sports also apply to CBS and NBC as well. They are live sporting events broadcast to a captive audience.
Add in the non-traditional broadcasters such as Amazon Prime and you have the potential to close the revenue gap between this new entity and the SEC and B1G. (You can’t erase the gap but narrowing the chasm is the goal.)
What’s more, creating a new conference will allow the new conference to cut some of its dead weight. It’s time for the presidents of some of the schools in the Big XII to pull a Cobra Kai and show no mercy. Sorry Oregon State, Kansas State et. al., you simply don’t bring enough to the table to warrant a seat in the new conference.
College Football is moving to a new, leaner top tier of teams and this new conference needs to be focused entirely on the best football it can deliver, in the best media markets.
College presidents from Clemson to Lubbock to Eugene all need to be on the phones this week discussing what their new conference will look like, and how quickly they can get new media rights deals in place. Anything less than that will leave some big universities on without a chair to sit in when the realignment music stops.
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