Just a Bit Outside: Playing Devil's Advocate about SEC Scheduling

Travis Galey

@travisgaley
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Aug 12, 2012
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Who wants to play A&M and Arkansas every year anyway?



The SEC Spring Meetings are underway in Destin, Florida and the hot topic remains whether they will move from an eight-game conference schedule to a nine-game schedule in football.

The advantages for a nine-game schedule are many and obvious. The chance to have three permanent rivals while rotating six other conference games each year guarantees marquee matchups in college football’s best conference.

Texas vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)
Texas vs. A&M (home & away)
Texas vs. Arkansas (home & away)

And yet, even though the nine-game format allows for some big-time battles guaranteed to bring in big-time television ratings, the prevailing sentiment appears to be that the schools will stay at eight conference games for at least the 2024 season and then reassess.

So I’ll play devil’s advocate and argue for the reasons why an eight-game conference schedule makes more sense than a nine-game schedule.

First and foremost, it’s all about the money.

The smaller SEC schools appear to be behind the push for the eight-game schedule. They loathe to give up an extra home game against a weaker opponent.

Let’s use the University of Missouri, which has the least amount of revenue of all of the public SEC schools (it’s easier to get figures for SEC schools), as an example of why an eight-game schedule is worth more money than a nine game schedule.

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Mizzou generated $141 million in athletic department revenue in 2022. Nearly $14 million, or roughly 10 percent, was generated through ticket sales in all sports, but football is the largest driver of that number.

The Tigers averaged 54,525 fans for their home games in 2022 (capacity is 62,621). At an average ticket price of $90 (the average price for last season as estimated by Seat Geek), then you’re looking at $4,907,250 per game.

Missouri played four non-conference games in 2022:
Louisiana Tech (home)
Kansas State (away)
Abilene Christian (home)
New Mexico State (home)

Taking away the extra non-conference game means Mizzou would either need to not schedule another power-5 team like K-State in the future or it would take a multi-million dollar hit. Now, I will concede that it’s not a full game per season lost with the expanded conference schedule because some years the extra conference game would be a home game while other years it would be a road game. Still, at an average of $5 million per home game, you’re still looking at $2.5 million less per year (on average).

In the 2022 scenario, the New Mexico State game played in November would likely be the one that would become a conference game. There were 45,231 fans in attendance for that 45-14 Mizzou win. Again, taking an average ticket price of $90 a pop, that comes out to $4,070,790.

What if, instead of New Mexico State, that game was against Texas A&M. What kind of increase would you see in attendance? Let’s say you add 10,000 more fans (bringing it to the season average of 55,000). That would generate an extra $900,000, far short of the $2.5 million lost from the extra home game every year.

Sticking with Missouri in 2022, the loss of the New Mexico State could have an even greater impact on Missouri’s ability to play in a bowl game.

Mizzou finished 6-7 last year with a 3-5 conference record. So if the fourth non-conference game was an SEC game instead, it’s fair to assume that the Tigers would be on the losing end of that battle more times than not. In other words, they needed that win over NMSU to qualify for a bowl game.

Qualifying for a bowl game brings in more money for the school and the conference.

Again, financially, it’s easy to see why the SEC may stick with an eight-game conference schedule because it makes more sense for the individual schools to do so.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR TEXAS IN 2024?

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We had a good debate about this on this week’s Modcast about whether an eight-game conference schedule actually benefits Texas during its first year in the SEC.

First off, how Texas performs this year will color what we think of the team moving into the SEC. If Texas comes out and wins nine, 10 or 11 games and the Big 12 title, then the Horns move into the SEC with momentum on the field and in recruiting as well.

However, if Texas wins eight games or less this season and doesn’t win the title (or even play in the Big 12 Championship game), then the Horns will be limping into the SEC and Steve Sarkisian’s seat will be very hot.

In either scenario, an eight-game conference schedule could really benefit UT.

@Anwar Richardson has rightly pointed out time and time again that Texas hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2012. It’s a good stat because it’s all about momentum and confidence. Starting out 3-0 gives players the belief that they are a good team capable of winning a lot of games. Starting out 2-1 or 1-2 pretty much tells them that this is going to be a tough season and they need to buckle down and get going.

Anwar’s point has always been that UT doesn’t do what so many other schools do in scheduling a bunch of cupcakes to allow the team to ease into the season. Instead, Texas has invariably scheduled at least one tough opponent. Of course, even when they thought they had a cupcake on the schedule, they ended up finding it to be a harder game than anticipated (*COUGH* MARYLAND *COUGH*).

But if you take a look at the non-conference games that Texas has already signed up for in the future, you’ll see that the philosophy of putting a big-name opponent in the non-conference slate isn’t going away anytime soon.

UPCOMING SCHEDULES:

2023
09/02 - Rice
09/09 - at Alabama
09/16 - Wyoming

2024
08/31 - Colorado State
09/07 - at Michigan
09/14 - UTSA

2025
08/30 - at Ohio State
09/06 - San Jose State
09/13 - UTEP

2026
09/05 - Texas State
09/12 - Ohio State
09/19 - UTSA

2027
09/11 - Michigan
09/18 - UTEP

Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State all feature quite heavily in the next five seasons.

If Texas limps in, it’s going to need some help with a friendly non-conference schedule to ensure its first season is at least a winning season.

If Texas wins big this season, then it very likely could be breaking in a new quarterback during their first SEC season and having the extra non-conference game could give either Maalik Murphy or Arch Manning more time to get settled into the role.

The drawback to a schedule full of cupcakes is that it is hardly the best lineup for ticket sales.

With an eight-game conference schedule in 2024, you would have OU (in Dallas) and seven more conference games, three or four of which would be on the road. So, creating an example home schedule, you could end up with something that looks like this:

HOME SCHEDULE EXAMPLE:
Colorado State
UTSA
Mississippi State
Tennessee
Missouri

Texas will still sell a lot of tickets because there will be a lot of fan enthusiasm moving into the new conference, but that isn’t exactly the sexiest lineup of home games.

WHAT DOES ESPN WANT?

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I’ve already pointed out how teams will make more money with an eight-game schedule than nine. The one way to offset that is by making more money from a broadcast partner.

ESPN owns the rights to all SEC home games beginning in 2024. That deal was struck with the understanding that the conference plays eight conference games. Adding a ninth conference game would add a lot of value for ESPN. It would showcase more rivalry games and get better ratings than, say, an Ole Miss game where they’re taking on Middle Tennessee State. The SEC understands just how valuable that ninth game is and is therefore, rightly, going to want more money in exchange for the extra games.

However, ESPN is not exactly flush with cash right now. The sports network has already had one round of layoffs and there are more to come.

That’s why the compromise appears to be taking shape that would allow the SEC to have an eight-game schedule in 2024 and then see where things stand in 2025 if ESPN can afford to pony up for the extra game.

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SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey downplayed the talk of money during the start of the spring meetings in Destin, Florida.

“I actually carry around a decision-making card that says, ‘money follows, it doesn’t lead,’” Sankey said. “If all we’re doing is chasing money, we’re not going to make very good decisions, and we’re not going to do that.”

It’s a commendable philosophy, but I’m not sure the university presidents he serves think the same way. They’re actually under pressure to operate within a budget. For many universities, a large part of that budget revenue centers around the athletic department. If those schools aren’t generating money from football (and to a smaller extent, basketball), then they’re going to go into the red.

Which all leads me back to the first point I made on this topic: “First and foremost, it’s all about the money.”

SPEAKING OF SCHEDULES …

The kickoff times for three more football games have been announced. Texas will face Rice at 2:30 (CT) on Fox. The Horns will also play Wyoming at home with a 7:00 pm (CT) kickoff on the Longhorn Network. The final kickoff time is the Black Friday kickoff against Texas Tech which will air on ABC at 6:30 pm (CT).

2023 Texas Football Schedule
(Home games in bold caps; neutral-site contests in italics)
Sept. 2 – RICE (2:30 p.m. CT, FOX)
Sept. 9 – at Alabama (6 p.m. CT, ESPN)
Sept. 16 – WYOMING (7 p.m. CT, Longhorn Network)
Sept. 23 – at Baylor*
Sept. 30 – KANSAS*
Oct. 7 – vs. Oklahoma* (Time TBD, ABC)
Oct. 21 – at Houston*
Oct. 28 – BYU*
Nov. 4 – KANSAS STATE*

Nov. 11 – at TCU*
Nov. 18 – at Iowa State*
Nov. 24 – TEXAS TECH* (6:30 p.m. CT, ABC)
--
Dec. 2 – Big 12 Championship Game (11 a.m. CT, FOX – AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas)

*Big 12 Conference game

TEXAS BASEBALL NCAA REGIONAL

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There is no denying that Miami is THE place to be right now. The city (or region) is hosting the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Finals and the University of Miami is hosting one of the NCAA regionals. Not a bad destination for the University of Texas baseball team.

Think they’ll stay at the same hotel as the Denver Nuggets?

This could end up being a tough regional for Texas, but it’s a challenge the Horns believe they’re up for.

"It's just an opportunity for us to get out there and compete against three good teams," said senior outfielder Eric Kennedy. "I know we're all looking forward to it."

The truth is, Texas could easily ride the arms of Lucas Gordon and LeBarron Johnson, Jr. to a win in Miami, moving them on to the Super Regionals next week. But they could also lay a complete egg and go 0-2 like they did in the Big 12 conference tournament last week.

"We kind of just have that bad feeling still in our mouth," outfielder Dylan Campbell said. "We're gonna go take that anger that we had after losing (at the Big 12 Tournament) and just take that into regionals, be able to let that fuel us going into the next week."

Head coach David Pierce says what happened in Arlington, doesn’t impact what will happen in Miami.

“No bearing whatsoever,” Pierce said. “So many times we went 0-2, come home rest and kind of regroup, play tremendously in the region and advance to Omaha.”

The first test comes against the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns.

@ZachattheDisch will tell anyone that listens that Louisiana will not be an easy out. But you don’t have to take his word for it, head coach David Pierce will tell you as well.

“Very aggressive offense,” Pierce said in describing head coach Matt Deggs’ team. “They can hit for power, a really good running team. They take advantage of what you give them. They’re not afraid to lay down a drag bunt. They’re very consistent about how they label their offense.”

Then if Texas does win, it’ll likely face the number one seed Miami Hurricanes. The Canes say they feel very good about how they’re playing right now.

“Exciting time of the year,’’ Miami coach Gino DiMare said after being announced as a regional host. “Proud of our guys the way we played down the stretch. We’re going into the regional with probably a little bit different mindset, feeling, than going into this regional last year, [when] we kind of limped into it. We’re playing some of our best baseball right now. ... Our goal is to get to Omaha and win a national championship.’’

It was a sentiment that the Canes’ All-American closer, Andrew Walters, echoed.

“Obviously, last season, we kind of had like a down slip going into the regional and we used that as motivation to flip the script,” said Walters. “This season, we’re on the way up and we’re playing some of our best baseball going into this regional.”

The starting rotation is set with Gordon, Johnson and Tanner Witt (in that order). But Coach Pierce says he and pitching coach Woody Williams are working out a game plan for when they need to go to the bullpen.

“I think that’s also the key for the rest of the week,” said Pierce. “Really identifying how we’re going to use the bullpen that matches with the starters so they can prepare similar to the starters.”

Texas has been frustratingly inconsistent this season. But Pierce prefers to point to the West Virginia series that Texas swept at the end of the regular season as an example of how this team can play moving forward.

“Our team is much better when we have a little edge about us, when they have something to prove. Sometimes I feel like they’re very good at that and then they drop their guard a bit.

“The message to the team is, you’ve done that,” Pierce said. “So if we can continue to put all three phases together, you’ve got a shot.”

The Horns have their shot – now what they do with it is anyone’s guess.

TWEETS OF INTEREST:

I’ve already talked about Texas potentially needing to break in a new starting quarterback in 2024 … and this tweet with freshman offensive line Payton

Kirkland talking about the QB play is straight Kool-Aid for those of us who are on the Maalik Muprhy bandwagon.



The football team has begun nine straight weeks of summer time workouts before they take a five day break and then get into the fall camp. I’m telling you, football is here.



No matter what happens with the baseball team in Miami, this year’s team just wasn’t good enough (for Texas’ standards). Coach Pierce is going to need to upgrade his roster – and there are some talented players already entering the portal.





It’s mind boggling that anyone is able to hit a big league fastball.



There is a lot of smoke building about Colorado to the Big 12. Kudos to Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark if he can pull off bringing CU back into the fold.

By the way, the most interesting nugget in this discussion is that CU administrators aren’t going to make any conference realignment move without first clearing it with head football coach Deion Sanders.

Coach Prime is going to be a real problem for Texas in recruiting moving forward … especially if Colorado is back in the Big 12 and playing regularly in Texas. Deion knows the DFW area very, very well and he will utilize his connections to go all in on every stud that comes out of the Metroplex.



Deion may know the DFW – but Bo knows football.



Just because The Wire is awesome.



Just because dogs are more awesome.



Finally, I really do appreciate that the World Series of Poker is paying tribute to a true Texas legend. Doyle Brunson is probably the best poker player of all time. He was still sharp and playing high-level poker right up until his death.

I’ll be in Las Vegas during the WSOP Main Event this year and I’m looking forward to seeing what they do to commemorate the Texas Dolly during the event that he won two times before. I may even have to play a 10-2 just in his honor.

 

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