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Contact Austin to book your trip today!
(985) 264-5003
saltysouthfishingcharters@gmail.com
===========================================================================
I’ve been around Orangebloods long enough to know that the “sky is falling” crowd on the message board is scrong to quite scrong. And while I tend to prefer moderation (in just about all aspects of life), I will say, they are not always wrong.
“The sky is falling crowd” was not wrong about Mack Brown over the last couple of years of his regime. They were not wrong about Charlie Strong (really, from the get-go). They were not wrong when they kept pointing out that Tom Herman’s antics (the Missouri bowl game) would wear thin. And they may not be wrong now when they say Texas is moving too slowly in the portal.
Certainly, last year saw UT late to the party on a number of athletes in the portal and the Longhorns lost out on a quite a few guys they maybe could have landed had they been quicker with the offers.
This year, we’ve seen one public offer so far … out of the thousand or so athletes who have jumped into the portal.
However, this is where I will revert back to the mean and call for patience.
Max Olson with The Athletic took a look at the Power 5 players in the portal as of noon (ET) on Tuesday. They break down like this:
38 QUARTERBACKS
34 RUNNING BACKS
67 WIDE RECEIVERS
18 TIGHT ENDS
42 OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
58 DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
52 LINEBACKERS
87 DEFFENSIVE BACKS
14 SPECIALISTS
That’s a lot of players to sort through and evaluate to see if they can actually help this team. And those are just the P5 players, that doesn’t include the Group of 5 or FCS players.
@Ketchum stuck to his M-O and showed us all the numbers of what the Texas staff is working with. There just aren’t many slots available to make offers on. Fortunately for the Horns, the largest number of players available are at positions where the need is the greatest. That means that if they do miss out on one guy, fans shouldn’t panic because there is likely someone who may be just as capable also available.
Of course, there is one position of need that has very few players available … and that’s why if I was Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, my number one portal player would be this guy (tip of the cap to @sodiumacetate for posting these tweets in the Portal Kombat thread):
Punting is an incredibly underrated (by nearly every fan – and most coaches) aspect of the game. But those hidden yards that good punters get quickly add up.
Consider this. In Michael Dickson’s 2017 season (his last on the 40 Acres), he punted 84 times for 3,984 yards (47.4 average).
Compare that to Daniel Trejo this season. Trejo punted 42 times for 1,745 yards (41.5 average).
Now I realize that it’s probably unfair to compare what is arguably the best punter in Longhorn history (Dickson gets the statistical edge over Russell Erxleben) versus a kid who transferred in from Texas Wesleyan for his senior season, but the numbers are still significant.
Dickson’s 47.4 yards-per-punt average is a full 5.9 yards more than Trejo. That’s more than a penalty worth of yardage that the opposing team has to make up. When you combine a good punter with a good defense, it becomes very tough for offenses to consistently overcome that disadvantage. That’s the very definition of complementary football.
Now, that is in no way meant to be disrespectful to Trejo. He came into UT at the last minute this season and did a pretty good job. But this is Texas, and pretty good is not the standard that the coaches set or the fans expect.
Sarkisian and special teams coordinator Jeff Banks should give Eddie Czaplicki the full-court press to get him to Austin. He is, arguably, the one player in the portal who can make the biggest impact on next season’s team.
BROCKERMEYER DEBATE …
The white whale of Longhorn recruiting is once again available. Tommy Brockermeyer is in the portal … the guy who Longhorn fans coveted, but were ultimately jilted when the Longhorn legacy chose not to follow his father, mother and brother’s footsteps and instead signed with Alabama.
Now the debate rages – should Texas go after the ultra-talented tackle prospect who has yet to make a mark on college football? Or should the Horns let him go willingly this time and stick with the ultra-talented linemen who did sign with Texas?
Frankly, I can see both sides. On the one hand, it’s true that Brockermeyer has yet to be able to crack the two-deep at Alabama. But that doesn’t bother me so much. The fact is, @Alex Dunlap is right that he did not stop being a talented offensive lineman with a ton of talent. The question is not whether he is a take. He is definitely a take.
Certainly Brockermeyer would provide strong competition for Cam Williams at right tackle. If he was to beat out Williams for a starting gig, then so be it. Even if he didn’t beat out Williams, that’s still solid depth and insurance in case of injuries. That makes the team stronger.
But the real question is whether he is a take given the few numbers of roster slots available for transfer portal players.
Do you take Brockermeyer (or any other offensive lineman) over a position with a bigger need (edge rusher, LB, CB, Safety, WR)?
This is where I think it’s just kind of up to Sarkisian and Kyle Flood to decide the roster management. If they decide to try to bring in Brockermeyer, then I’m all for it. If they decide to pass, I completely understand. Either way, I’m going to do the un-Orangebloods thing and simply not panic.
BOWL PRACTICES BEGIN
Bowl practices kick off this week. Many people tend to blow off bowl practices as not a big deal but they really are key to developing young players. That’s 15 extra practices – the same number of practices that happen in the spring.
This year’s Alamo Bowl practices will be key for a few players in particular.
DJ Campbell stepped in for an injured Cole Hutson during the Baylor game and performed very well. In fact, the running game really picked up after he came in. Campbell has the size and athletic ability to be able to move defenders and open up holes.
Sarkisian says he expects Hutson to be back for the bowl game, but we’ll see. And even if he does come back for the bowl game, I would guess that Campbell will get quite a bit of reps with the first team throughout the bowl practices. That kind of familiarity with the guys he’ll be playing next to against Washington can only be helpful.
Jonathan Brooks has already shown some real flashes this season, including rushing for more than a hundred yards in the rout of Kansas. Now is his chance to shine. We don’t yet know whether Bijan Robinson or Roschon Johnson will play in the Alamo Bowl, but I would be shocked to see Robinson and mildly surprised to see Johnson. Although, certainly Roschon being the featured running back for once may actually be more beneficial for his NFL stock than if he were to take that time off and go prepare for the draft. But either way, we can expect to see a lot more carries from Brooks in San Antonio.
Brooks has a chance to stamp his claim on the RBI role during these 15 practices and in the bowl game itself. While he is clearly the top of the group for now, it is impossible to ignore the fact that Jaydon Blue is also here and was singled out by Sark as a player who has grown a lot during the season. It is also a fact that perhaps the number one RB recruit in the nation will be on campus in January. Cedric Baxter showed out this year in Florida and if Texas can hold on to his commitment, then he will be given every chance to win a share of carries during the spring practices and fall camp.
Speaking of players that Sark singled out as showing real growth this year – none other than unsung QB Maalik Murphy. Hudson Card’s departure is Maalik Murphy’s gain. Murphy has yet to take a snap in a college football but he has been working behind the scenes to get better – and get noticed. While I expect Sark to use these practices to really get Ewers back on track, Card’s departure means more snaps should be available for Murphy (and presumably Charles Wright as well).
Every wide receiver on the roster not named Xavier Worthy or Jordan Whittington. I’m not sure if Worthy or Whittington will be back next year (or both), but I do know that reinforcements are coming in the form of the transfer portal as well as some talented young wideouts in this year’s recruiting class. This is a position where it feels like some guys are about to be passed up – never to be heard from again. I’m not writing them all off, I still have high hopes for Brenen Thompson, for example. And I was impressed with some of what Savion Red was able to do this season. But there are only so many balls to go around and if those guys want to show that they are deserving of more targets, then they need to use this time now – before the new faces show up on campus – to stake a claim that they should be in the mix for playing time.
WASHINGTON PREVIEW …
The Washington Huskies will present a real challenge for this Texas Longhorns defense. They come into the game as the number one passing offense in the country. A lot of that is due to the talent of quarterback Michael Penix (you’re going to get sick of hearing about him). But I also think this Texas defense is capable of limiting the Huskies and winning the game.
“Well, it's a heck of a challenge,” said Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. “These guys can light up the scoreboard quickly. Michael Penix, I've had a chance to watch them a few different times, and he throws it all over the place; they have great receivers and a really good offensive line. They run the ball effectively, but it's a very dynamic passing game, and they have a very disruptive front defensively - they get after the quarterback.”
I tried to find the team that most closely resembles Texas and see how they performed against UW, and I think I found them … Oregon State.
Yes, I know people like to look down their noses at the Beavers, but the resemblance to Texas is pretty striking. They are a team that makes their bones with strong defense and a strong run game.
TALE OF THE TAPE:
Take a look at some of the number comparing Texas, Oregon State and Washington.
SCORING OFFENSE
Obviously Washington can score and score in bunches. But if you look at the scoring offense stats, you’ll see the number three team in the country is actually Alabama and the number five team in the country is TCU. So Texas has some experience at going up against teams with high octane offenses … and those were some of UT’s best games defensively.
Will it be a challenge? Absolutely. But Gary Patterson and Pete Kwiatkowski have a month to come up with a plan to slow UW down.
SCORING DEFENSE
TOTAL TEAM DEFENSE:
Oregon State has the best total defense, but it is very much on par with Texas when it comes to the most important stat for a defense … points allowed.
RUSHING DEFENSE
RUSHING OFFENSE
When it comes to the run game, both offensively and defensively, Texas and Oregon State are very much in lock step. They run the ball well and they stop the run well. That’s the key to a good football team (even in this day and age of high profile passing games). The most surprising thing here is that Washington is actually pretty good at stopping the run too. That being said, they did give up 175 yards to Oregon State when the two teams played earlier this season (4.4 ypc).
PASSING OFFENSE
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED
This is obviously the biggest differentiator between the three way comparison. Washington is very good at passing the ball while Texas has been only “okay” and Oregon State flat out sucks. And, sadly for Texas fans, the passing game is where Washington is most susceptible on defense.
OREGON STATE VS. WASHINGTON
Having established that Oregon State plays a style of football very similar to UT, I went back and watched the OSU vs. UW game from November 5th.
Washington won the game 24-21 with a last second field goal.
Oregon State actually was moving the ball pretty well on the ground and likely should have won. But it stalled out in the red zone a couple of times, including a failed fourth-down conversion on the two yard line.
On defense, the Beavers frustrated Penix all night long with consistent pressure and he had his worst game of the season. Penix hit on 30 of 52 attempts for 298 yards (5.7 average) one touchdown and one interception.
Now, it has to be said, the wind was howling in Seattle that night with 40 mph gusts … but there weren’t many throws that I noticed where the ball was obviously affected by the wind. Still, it was a factor that night and it won’t be a factor in the Alamo Dome.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Texas needs to play to its strengths. It needs to run the ball consistently to chew up the clock and keep Penix off the field. The defense needs to bring pressure (and the DBs need to stay tight on the WRs in order to give the blitz time to get home).
If Texas can pull that off, there is no reason why the Horns shouldn’t be able to head into the off-season with a little momentum.
Contact Austin to book your trip today!
(985) 264-5003
saltysouthfishingcharters@gmail.com
===========================================================================
I’ve been around Orangebloods long enough to know that the “sky is falling” crowd on the message board is scrong to quite scrong. And while I tend to prefer moderation (in just about all aspects of life), I will say, they are not always wrong.
“The sky is falling crowd” was not wrong about Mack Brown over the last couple of years of his regime. They were not wrong about Charlie Strong (really, from the get-go). They were not wrong when they kept pointing out that Tom Herman’s antics (the Missouri bowl game) would wear thin. And they may not be wrong now when they say Texas is moving too slowly in the portal.
Certainly, last year saw UT late to the party on a number of athletes in the portal and the Longhorns lost out on a quite a few guys they maybe could have landed had they been quicker with the offers.
This year, we’ve seen one public offer so far … out of the thousand or so athletes who have jumped into the portal.
However, this is where I will revert back to the mean and call for patience.
Max Olson with The Athletic took a look at the Power 5 players in the portal as of noon (ET) on Tuesday. They break down like this:
38 QUARTERBACKS
34 RUNNING BACKS
67 WIDE RECEIVERS
18 TIGHT ENDS
42 OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
58 DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
52 LINEBACKERS
87 DEFFENSIVE BACKS
14 SPECIALISTS
That’s a lot of players to sort through and evaluate to see if they can actually help this team. And those are just the P5 players, that doesn’t include the Group of 5 or FCS players.
@Ketchum stuck to his M-O and showed us all the numbers of what the Texas staff is working with. There just aren’t many slots available to make offers on. Fortunately for the Horns, the largest number of players available are at positions where the need is the greatest. That means that if they do miss out on one guy, fans shouldn’t panic because there is likely someone who may be just as capable also available.
Of course, there is one position of need that has very few players available … and that’s why if I was Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, my number one portal player would be this guy (tip of the cap to @sodiumacetate for posting these tweets in the Portal Kombat thread):
Punting is an incredibly underrated (by nearly every fan – and most coaches) aspect of the game. But those hidden yards that good punters get quickly add up.
Consider this. In Michael Dickson’s 2017 season (his last on the 40 Acres), he punted 84 times for 3,984 yards (47.4 average).
Compare that to Daniel Trejo this season. Trejo punted 42 times for 1,745 yards (41.5 average).
Now I realize that it’s probably unfair to compare what is arguably the best punter in Longhorn history (Dickson gets the statistical edge over Russell Erxleben) versus a kid who transferred in from Texas Wesleyan for his senior season, but the numbers are still significant.
Dickson’s 47.4 yards-per-punt average is a full 5.9 yards more than Trejo. That’s more than a penalty worth of yardage that the opposing team has to make up. When you combine a good punter with a good defense, it becomes very tough for offenses to consistently overcome that disadvantage. That’s the very definition of complementary football.
Now, that is in no way meant to be disrespectful to Trejo. He came into UT at the last minute this season and did a pretty good job. But this is Texas, and pretty good is not the standard that the coaches set or the fans expect.
Sarkisian and special teams coordinator Jeff Banks should give Eddie Czaplicki the full-court press to get him to Austin. He is, arguably, the one player in the portal who can make the biggest impact on next season’s team.
BROCKERMEYER DEBATE …
The white whale of Longhorn recruiting is once again available. Tommy Brockermeyer is in the portal … the guy who Longhorn fans coveted, but were ultimately jilted when the Longhorn legacy chose not to follow his father, mother and brother’s footsteps and instead signed with Alabama.
Now the debate rages – should Texas go after the ultra-talented tackle prospect who has yet to make a mark on college football? Or should the Horns let him go willingly this time and stick with the ultra-talented linemen who did sign with Texas?
Frankly, I can see both sides. On the one hand, it’s true that Brockermeyer has yet to be able to crack the two-deep at Alabama. But that doesn’t bother me so much. The fact is, @Alex Dunlap is right that he did not stop being a talented offensive lineman with a ton of talent. The question is not whether he is a take. He is definitely a take.
Certainly Brockermeyer would provide strong competition for Cam Williams at right tackle. If he was to beat out Williams for a starting gig, then so be it. Even if he didn’t beat out Williams, that’s still solid depth and insurance in case of injuries. That makes the team stronger.
But the real question is whether he is a take given the few numbers of roster slots available for transfer portal players.
Do you take Brockermeyer (or any other offensive lineman) over a position with a bigger need (edge rusher, LB, CB, Safety, WR)?
This is where I think it’s just kind of up to Sarkisian and Kyle Flood to decide the roster management. If they decide to try to bring in Brockermeyer, then I’m all for it. If they decide to pass, I completely understand. Either way, I’m going to do the un-Orangebloods thing and simply not panic.
BOWL PRACTICES BEGIN
Bowl practices kick off this week. Many people tend to blow off bowl practices as not a big deal but they really are key to developing young players. That’s 15 extra practices – the same number of practices that happen in the spring.
This year’s Alamo Bowl practices will be key for a few players in particular.
DJ Campbell stepped in for an injured Cole Hutson during the Baylor game and performed very well. In fact, the running game really picked up after he came in. Campbell has the size and athletic ability to be able to move defenders and open up holes.
Sarkisian says he expects Hutson to be back for the bowl game, but we’ll see. And even if he does come back for the bowl game, I would guess that Campbell will get quite a bit of reps with the first team throughout the bowl practices. That kind of familiarity with the guys he’ll be playing next to against Washington can only be helpful.
Jonathan Brooks has already shown some real flashes this season, including rushing for more than a hundred yards in the rout of Kansas. Now is his chance to shine. We don’t yet know whether Bijan Robinson or Roschon Johnson will play in the Alamo Bowl, but I would be shocked to see Robinson and mildly surprised to see Johnson. Although, certainly Roschon being the featured running back for once may actually be more beneficial for his NFL stock than if he were to take that time off and go prepare for the draft. But either way, we can expect to see a lot more carries from Brooks in San Antonio.
Brooks has a chance to stamp his claim on the RBI role during these 15 practices and in the bowl game itself. While he is clearly the top of the group for now, it is impossible to ignore the fact that Jaydon Blue is also here and was singled out by Sark as a player who has grown a lot during the season. It is also a fact that perhaps the number one RB recruit in the nation will be on campus in January. Cedric Baxter showed out this year in Florida and if Texas can hold on to his commitment, then he will be given every chance to win a share of carries during the spring practices and fall camp.
Speaking of players that Sark singled out as showing real growth this year – none other than unsung QB Maalik Murphy. Hudson Card’s departure is Maalik Murphy’s gain. Murphy has yet to take a snap in a college football but he has been working behind the scenes to get better – and get noticed. While I expect Sark to use these practices to really get Ewers back on track, Card’s departure means more snaps should be available for Murphy (and presumably Charles Wright as well).
Every wide receiver on the roster not named Xavier Worthy or Jordan Whittington. I’m not sure if Worthy or Whittington will be back next year (or both), but I do know that reinforcements are coming in the form of the transfer portal as well as some talented young wideouts in this year’s recruiting class. This is a position where it feels like some guys are about to be passed up – never to be heard from again. I’m not writing them all off, I still have high hopes for Brenen Thompson, for example. And I was impressed with some of what Savion Red was able to do this season. But there are only so many balls to go around and if those guys want to show that they are deserving of more targets, then they need to use this time now – before the new faces show up on campus – to stake a claim that they should be in the mix for playing time.
WASHINGTON PREVIEW …
The Washington Huskies will present a real challenge for this Texas Longhorns defense. They come into the game as the number one passing offense in the country. A lot of that is due to the talent of quarterback Michael Penix (you’re going to get sick of hearing about him). But I also think this Texas defense is capable of limiting the Huskies and winning the game.
“Well, it's a heck of a challenge,” said Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. “These guys can light up the scoreboard quickly. Michael Penix, I've had a chance to watch them a few different times, and he throws it all over the place; they have great receivers and a really good offensive line. They run the ball effectively, but it's a very dynamic passing game, and they have a very disruptive front defensively - they get after the quarterback.”
I tried to find the team that most closely resembles Texas and see how they performed against UW, and I think I found them … Oregon State.
Yes, I know people like to look down their noses at the Beavers, but the resemblance to Texas is pretty striking. They are a team that makes their bones with strong defense and a strong run game.
TALE OF THE TAPE:
Take a look at some of the number comparing Texas, Oregon State and Washington.
SCORING OFFENSE
| 4 | WASHINGTON | 40.8 points per game |
| 20 | TEXAS | 35.7 ppg |
| 37 | OREGON STATE | 32.4 ppg |
Obviously Washington can score and score in bunches. But if you look at the scoring offense stats, you’ll see the number three team in the country is actually Alabama and the number five team in the country is TCU. So Texas has some experience at going up against teams with high octane offenses … and those were some of UT’s best games defensively.
Will it be a challenge? Absolutely. But Gary Patterson and Pete Kwiatkowski have a month to come up with a plan to slow UW down.
SCORING DEFENSE
| 30 | TEXAS | 21.17 points per game |
| 31 | OREGON STATE | 21.42 ppg |
| 62 | WASHINGTON | 26.33 ppg |
TOTAL TEAM DEFENSE:
| 31 | OREGON STATE | |
| 49 | TEXAS | |
| 57 | WASHINGTON |
Oregon State has the best total defense, but it is very much on par with Texas when it comes to the most important stat for a defense … points allowed.
RUSHING DEFENSE
| 20 | OREGON STATE | 114 yards per game |
| 29 | TEXAS | 123 ypg |
| 33 | WASHINGTON | 127 ypg |
RUSHING OFFENSE
| 26 | TEXAS | 199.6 ypg |
| 27 | OREGON STATE | 199.7 ypg |
| 71 | WASHINGTON | 145 ypg |
When it comes to the run game, both offensively and defensively, Texas and Oregon State are very much in lock step. They run the ball well and they stop the run well. That’s the key to a good football team (even in this day and age of high profile passing games). The most surprising thing here is that Washington is actually pretty good at stopping the run too. That being said, they did give up 175 yards to Oregon State when the two teams played earlier this season (4.4 ypc).
PASSING OFFENSE
| 1 | WASHINGTON | 367.7 yards per game |
| 63 | TEXAS | 230.8 ypg |
| 103 | OREGON STATE | 200.4 ypg |
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED
| 74 | OREGON STATE | 228 ypg |
| 88 | TEXAS | 239 ypg |
| 90 | WASHINGTON | 241 ypg |
This is obviously the biggest differentiator between the three way comparison. Washington is very good at passing the ball while Texas has been only “okay” and Oregon State flat out sucks. And, sadly for Texas fans, the passing game is where Washington is most susceptible on defense.
OREGON STATE VS. WASHINGTON
Having established that Oregon State plays a style of football very similar to UT, I went back and watched the OSU vs. UW game from November 5th.
Washington won the game 24-21 with a last second field goal.
Oregon State actually was moving the ball pretty well on the ground and likely should have won. But it stalled out in the red zone a couple of times, including a failed fourth-down conversion on the two yard line.
On defense, the Beavers frustrated Penix all night long with consistent pressure and he had his worst game of the season. Penix hit on 30 of 52 attempts for 298 yards (5.7 average) one touchdown and one interception.
Now, it has to be said, the wind was howling in Seattle that night with 40 mph gusts … but there weren’t many throws that I noticed where the ball was obviously affected by the wind. Still, it was a factor that night and it won’t be a factor in the Alamo Dome.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Texas needs to play to its strengths. It needs to run the ball consistently to chew up the clock and keep Penix off the field. The defense needs to bring pressure (and the DBs need to stay tight on the WRs in order to give the blitz time to get home).
If Texas can pull that off, there is no reason why the Horns shouldn’t be able to head into the off-season with a little momentum.
