Shortly after getting out of the Navy, I returned home to Dallas to start school. The first job I got was as a waiter at a sports bar in Addison. Well, technically, the first job I got was at a baseball card shop that paid surprisingly well, but after three days they told me it wasn’t going to work out and I went home. I still have no clue what I did to get fired after three days, but I ended up ok in the end and I’m not entirely sure if that card shop is still in business or not. But I digress.
I had an absolute blast working at that sports bar. My coworkers were fun to hang around. The owner was an a-hole to just about everyone but he looked out for his people. And I never had to miss a sporting event because of work.
In fact, I was waiting tables the day that James Brown rolled left and found Derek Lewis wide open to convert on fourth down and seal Texas’ victory in the first-ever Big 12 Championship game.
I cheered along with everyone else in the bar at that moment (even though I knew that meant at least one more season of John Mackovic) and then went and got them a round of drinks. That was the first of many gut punches UT would deliver to Nebraska over the years. But I digress.
Back in those days, there was no FanDuel or Bet MGM to be able to place bets online. Heck, there wasn’t an online (there was, but it was a very, very small number of people who had access to it and I wasn’t one of them).
If you wanted to bet on sports, you had to find a bookie. It turns out, a sports bar was a pretty easy place to find a bookie in those days and that was the first time I ever came across anyone like that.
I loved sports and as a waiter, I had plenty of cash on hand so it was pretty natural to start placing some bets.
However, in doing so, I learned some very important lessons that have stuck with me from that time on.
First, don’t ever bet money that isn’t truly disposable income. It’s one thing to take money from your entertainment budget to bet with. I mean, if you want to gamble on sports as opposed to going to a movie, fine. But if you need that money for gas, then you need to prioritize being able to drive home.
Second, I am never, ever, ever going to be able to make a living betting on sports. It turns out, predicting the outcome of a game is harder than it looks.
So today, I work for a living. I found a company that is willing to pay me money and provide benefits like health insurance, 401k and time off in exchange for my services.
It works for me.
And still, to this day, whenever I do dabble in sports gambling, I usually end up losing.
All of which to say … it’s time for me to make my 2024 season predictions. You can bookmark these and use them to make your own bets on the season. But don’t come whining to me if you end up losing because I just wrote 500 words explaining why you shouldn’t listen to me.
But since when have I ever let that stop me from spouting off?
Let’s get to it.
2024 TEXAS LONGHORNS PREDICTIONS:
QUINN EWERS:
We will start with the most obvious one. I wrote a column on July 18th predicting a record breaking season from Quinn Ewers.
In it, I predicted Ewers will pass for 4,250 yards, 35 touchdowns and 6 interceptions with a 75% completion percentage and a 190 QB rating.
I came to that conclusion by looking up Ewers' stats from last season:
3,161 yards, 21 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a 162.6 rating
I then looked up the QB stats the last time Sark had an experienced quarterback who was surrounded by playmakers and a good offensive line.
2020 Mac Jones:
4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a 203.1 rating.
I then kind of rounded down a little and rolled with it.
That would end up being about 300 yards per game average (over 14 games) and 2.5 TDs per game.
No, Texas probably doesn’t have the next DeVonta Smith on its roster, but I still really like what Quinn does have as far as receivers go. Isaiah Bond, Silas Bolden, Johntay Cook, Ryan Wingo, Matthew Golden and DeAndre Moore are a damn formidable bunch.
Combine those players with the offensive line that will be protecting Ewers and I maintain he will have a record-breaking season.
JAYDON BLUE:
Blue is, unquestionably, the starting running back this year following the loss of CJ Baxter to a season-ending knee injury.
Blue has been electric every time he’s been given an opportunity before. He got 56 carries last season and produced 339 yards (6.1 yards-per-carry).
But that was all in spot duty. Now, he’s going to be called on to be “the man.”
Blue said he worked all offseason to put on weight so that he can handle the workload and run up the middle. Will it pay off?
Let us assume he stays healthy all season and gets 14 games. Let us also assume the ypc comes down to 5.0 (just for argument's sake). Finally, let’s assume he averages about 20 carries per game for an average of 100 yards per game. That would mean Jaydon Blue would end the season with 1,400 yards. We’ll also give him a touchdown a game.
1,400 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns, 25 catches for another 250 yards and three more touchdowns.
WIDE RECEIVER STATS:
For Ewers to get to 4,250 yards passing, he’ll need to average about 10 yards per pass attempt with 30 attempts per game for 14 games. I think the attempts per game average may end up being a little low this year because I foresee Sark putting more of the offense on Ewers’ shoulders. However, we know Sark wants to be a run-first offense as well so let’s play it conservatively and stick with that number.
So for the wide receiver predictions, we’ll be playing with 420 pass attempts for the season. Again, that number feels low and it doesn’t also account for the pass attempts we’ll see from Arch in games this year. So let’s bump that number up another 60 attempts for total team pass attempts this year to 480.
I’m predicting a 75 percent completion percentage for Ewers but for argument's sake, we’ll go with the 70 percent he had last season. That gives us 360 completed passes to spread around. We’ll give 75 catches to the tight ends and running backs (which may be low but probably not by much). That leaves 285 catches for the wide receiver corps.
Isaiah Bond: 65 catches – 910 yards
Johntay Cook: 45 – 630 yards
Silas Bolden: 50 catches – 700 yards
DeAndre Moore: 45 catches – 540 yards
Matthew Golden: 25 catches – 250 yards
Ryan Wingo: 55 catches – 825 yards
Isaiah Bond is going to be the leader this year. The 65 catches is a pretty good boost from what he did last year (44 catches at Alabama). If we stick with the same 14 yards per catch then he’ll get 910 yards. If Bond can get up to 15 yards per catch then he’ll be pushing that 1,000-yard mark.
Johntay Cook averaged 17 yards per catch last year, mostly in garbage time. Let’s pare him back to 14 yards just due to the increased competition he’ll be facing and that puts him at 630 yards.
Silas Bolden is another 14 yards per catch kind of guy so we’ll put him at 630 yards as well.
I think we’ll see Moore in the slot this year so let’s go with the same 12 yards per catch that Whittington had in that position last year … 540 yards receiving.
I really don’t know what to think of Matthew Golden so this is a total crap shoot … 25 catches at 10 yards per for 250 yards.
Finally, as you can see, I have Ryan Wingo eventually taking over as either the #1 receiving option down the stretch or a solid number two option all season long. His size and skill combination means he’ll play a lot, make a lot of catches and will average about 15 yards per catch. 55 catches for 825 yards. I am a big, big fan of this guy and I think I may be underselling him. I would have him projected much higher if there weren’t so many other mouths to feed.
All told that has the wide receiver corps catching 285 passes for 3,855 yards (13.5 yards per catch).
RUN GAME DEFENSE:
The Texas defense was number three in the country last year giving up 82 yards per game on the ground. Much of that success was due to T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy forming a freaking brick wall in the middle through which none shall pass.
We’ve been hearing a lot of praise about what Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton are doing in practice but there’s just no way we could expect them to come close to what Sweat and Murphy did. A dropoff is in order.
Pete Kwiatkowski will continue to focus on stopping the run first so while I don’t think Texas will rank in the top five, I’m not sure we’ll see much of a drop. I think we could see Texas drop into the 15th through 20th range – which last year would have meant Texas giving up about 110 yards per game on the ground. That seems about right to me.
SACKS:
The Longhorns haven’t had a double-digit sack artist since Jackson Jeffcoat had 13 sacks in 2013. I’ve repeated that stat multiple times throughout the offseason because I find it so shocking.
That all comes to an end this year.
This is an area where the addition of Johnny Nansen will likely pay off. I think we’ll see more aggression in the pass rush in an attempt to get to the QB more.
The Longhorns produced 32 sacks last year for an average of 2.29 per game. I think we’ll see that number go up quite a bit this year.
Texas: 46 sacks
Trey Moore had 14 sacks last year and by all accounts, he is wrecking shop in practices this summer. If he can make hay against the Texas offensive line, he should be able to put moves on many of the right tackles he’ll face this year.
Moore: 15 sacks
I also focused quite a bit on Barryn Sorrell last week saying Sorrell is prepared to have a breakout year.
I mentioned in the comments that I didn’t know if Sorrell would get to double-digit sacks but I thought he would come close. I’m going to go ahead and pull the trigger and say …
Sorrell: 10 sacks
PASS DEFENSE:
Seeing the sack totals shoot up will go a long, long way toward making last year’s notoriously bad pass defense much better this year. The Horns were 116th in the country last year giving up 254.4 yards per game.
In talking with @Ketchum , he was surprised that I was so low on the pass defense getting better this year. I think Ketch may be right.
As I have listened to the players who come up during the press availabilities, they seem extremely confident in this year’s pass defense. Manny Muhammad, Gavin Holmes, Jahdae Barron, Andrew Mukuba and of course Michael Taaffe have all been singled out for their play.
Now I know you can’t take the word of players during the availabilities as gospel, but we’ve also heard reports of multiple interceptions in practice (and I’ve already laid out my expectations in the passing game).
Add it all up and I’ve begun to shift my opinion on the pass defense as the fall camp has gone on. I will head into the season with a much rosier projection.
Texas pass defense: 200 yards per game (which would have been about 30th in the country last year.
RED ZONE OFFENSE
Texas was 90th in the country last year scoring 80 percent of the time they were inside the opponent's 20. It has been a problem that has followed Sark everywhere he has gone in either college football or the NFL.
The Horns under Sark have been very up and down in this category.
2023: 90th in the red zone scoring 80 percent of the time
2022: 19th 89.62%
2021: 4th 93.62%
2020: 43rd 85.71%
I’ve been pretty optimistic about the Longhorns in my previous predictions but this one is much trickier. It seems like the Horns are either great in the red zone or they suck.
Unfortunately, I am going to stick with them sucking. I think we’ll see a slight improvement to scoring about 85% of the time which would put them 65th in the country in the category.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Texas was elite on special teams in almost every category last season. The one area that was a little low was on kickoff returns where the Horns ranked 53rd in the country averaging 20.52 per return. This is where the addition of Matthew Golden will really shine. Golden was a damn good returner for Houston last year. Combine his skills with the increased talent on the punt return team and I think we’ll see that number get up into the 25 to 30 yards per return range which would be a top 10 unit in the country.
SEASON RECORD:
I have Texas finishing the season 11-1 and playing in the SEC Championship game against Ole Miss … with UT winning the league in its first year.
I don’t know exactly WHICH game Texas will lose (go back to what I wrote earlier). But I don’t think the loss will be to one of the big four games (Michigan, OU, Georgia and A&M). I think Texas will get up for those games and take care of business. However, they will pick up one unexpected loss from the likes of Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas or Kentucky.
Arkansas may be one of the toughest games of the year. We all know that place will be incredibly keyed up to have the Horns come back to town. A win over UT would make their season, no matter what happens the rest of the way. Taylen Green, the Piggies transfer quarterback from Boise State, may be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC. And Arkansas’ defense, led by Landon Jackson, is very tough and they play tough. Sark should have learned his lesson in his first season and won’t take them lightly – but that doesn’t make it any easier.
Kentucky, in particular, is the trappiest of all trap games. It follows the trip to Arkansas and comes right before the game against A&M. If the Texas players are caught looking ahead to Thanksgiving weekend then they could be in for a real surprise. The Wildcats have a talented roster with the likes of Deone Walker (one of the best defensive tackles in the country) and Barion Brown, one of the fastest wide receivers in the country. They also have former five-star quarterback Brock Vandagriff, who transferred in from Georgia. This won’t be an easy game and late November is a bad time for a slip up.
Florida and Mississippi State are two teams Texas SHOULDN’T lose to (especially at home). And, if I’m being honest, there is no way I will be predicting a loss in either. But Texas has had those clunker games pop up in the past and these are the types of teams where that can happen again.
PROJECTING THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF:
SEEDS:
1) Texas Longhorns: The SEC Champ with only one loss will be the number one seed in the country.
2) Oregon Ducks: This is either going to be Ohio State or Oregon. They play each other in Eugene this year so I’m going to go with the Ducks as the Big Ten champ and the number two seed.
3) Miami Hurricanes: Have you seen Miami’s schedule? They open the season at Florida and then they host Florida State in October. The rest is all ACC scrubs. I’m a big believer in Cam Ward. I’m an even bigger believer in Damien Martinez who is probably the best running back in the country. Mario Christobal may not know how to manage a clock but he knows how to build offensive lines. I’m not sure Miami will lose a regular season game (maybe one) and they will be the ACC champs.
4) Utah Utes: Picking the winner of the Big 12 is like trying to pick which baby will cross the line first at a minor league baseball baby race game. I’m putting my trust in 18th-year senior quarter Cam Rising (who has been gone from Texas long enough that we don’t need to keep referencing the one semester he spent in Austin) and the Utes defense.
5) Ohio State: Whichever Big Ten team doesn’t win the conference will be the number five seed … which may actually be the best position to have in the new playoff format. Yes, the five seed has to play an extra game, but it is against the 12 seed at home and then they get to take on the four seed in the next round.
6) Georgia: I know picking the Bulldogs to not make the SEC Championship game is crazy to many of you but this is a very tough schedule for UGA this year. I’ve already predicted Texas to beat UGA in Austin. Even if that doesn’t end up being true, they also have to travel to Alabama and to Ole Miss. They will also have Clemson, Auburn and Tennessee on the schedule. It is going to be a tough year for the Bulldogs.
7) Notre Dame: Much like Miami above them, Notre Dame’s schedule is very manageable. The Texas A&M game in week one is an early challenge and after that the only other big challenge will be when Florida State goes to South Bend. USC at the end of the year MAY be a hard one, but we’ll just have to see how their season goes.
8) Ole Miss: Hotty Toddy is built to play like the big boys of college football. They have big, talented players on the line on both sides of the ball. Jaxson Dart is experienced and talented at quarterback with an elite play caller as his head coach. And once again, talking about schedules, the Rebels get Georgia and OU at home in The Grove. Their toughest road games are at LSU, Arkansas and South Carolina.
9) Penn State: This pick isn’t done with a lot of conviction. I’ve never been really impressed with James Franklin but I am a big fan of his new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki. Kotelnicki spent a long time with Lance Leipold before leaving Kansas for Happy Valley. It will be up to him to unlock the full potential of quarterback Drew Allar. The Nittany Lions schedule isn’t exactly daunting either.
10) Alabama: The fourth SEC team to make the playoffs is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Jalen Milroe is going to be one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football this year and new head coach Kalen DeBoer is an elite coaching talent.
11) Kansas State: The Big 12 gets a second team in the playoffs thanks to Chris Kleiman and his new quarterback, Avery Johnson. Johnson was promising enough as a quarterback that Kleiman was willing to let his senior QB, Will Howard transfer to Ohio State.
12) UTSA: The Road Runners don’t have QB Frank Harris under center anymore (not that any team has any quarterback under center anymore), but they are still a talented team. Owen McCown (son of Josh McCown) is the new signal caller in San Antonio. Coach Jeff Traylor will also pack a strong run game to pair with a stout defense returning seven starters.
AWARDS:
- Quinn Ewers will be a Heisman finalist but he will not win it. That award will go to Jalen Milroe. Milroe has the most accurate deep ball in college football and new head coach Kalen DeBoer calls more deep passes than any other coach. Milroe will rack up a ton of passing yards and a ton of rushing yards and will get that bronzen stiff-arm statue in December.
- Texas will win the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country. The unit is incredibly talented and it is stacked.
- Jaydon Blue will be a finalist for the Doak Walker award but will not win it.
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