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The NCAA Tournament Committee granted Texas a 2-seed in a move that may have drawn the ire of many Texas fans as to why they were not included in the top four seeds in the country.If you're a math brain like I am, you know that the number two is actually pretty close to the number one. In fact, it's the closest number. So if a 1-seed is the best, but Texas has a 2-seed...that means that their seed is good, also.
I think this Texas team has drawn about as favorable a path to the Final Four as is possible in an extremely difficult tournament, and while a rematch with under-seeded rival Texas A&M sits squarely on the horizon in round two should both teams take care of business, the overall draw is not particularly bad.
If you'll remember last year, Virginia Tech, the 11-seed, was talked about as "the most under-seeded team in the tournament." Well, Texas is playing that team again in the second round in the Aggies (again, if both teams pass the first round, which is never guaranteed).
Let's take a look at the whole region overall, and my prediction for it.
(1) Houston Cougars vs. (16) Northern Kentucky Norse
There generally isn't a whole lot to preview for 1 vs 16 games, considering the talent gap is so large that it's almost an inevitable result. Of course, Virginia knows what it feels like to take an opponent lightly, but no one else ever has.The story for the Cougars right now is the injury to All-American guard Marcus Sasser (17.1 points/game), who had a non-contact injury in their game against Cincinnati in the AAC semifinals, and did not play against Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. Without him, Memphis was able to win behind an explosion of offense from Kendric Davis. Memphis will be a tough out in the tournament.
Houston has been tight lipped about the situation with Sasser, and I don't want to assume anything about his timeline on coming back to the team because I don't have any facts that haven't already been reported. I'm just hoping he's good to go for it because he's played so well this year that he deserves to have an impact in this tournament, especially after last year's injury disappointment.
NKU has a bit of scoring star power as well with starting guard Marques Warrick (19.1 points/game). He's a sniper who hits 39.1% of his threes on 6.5 takes per game, and has the ability to go wild, as he did in a few conference games for the Norse this year.
Unfortunately, he will not score that much against this Houston defense. Even without Sasser, their mindset on that end of the floor won't change. They should have no problems taking out NKU in this first-round matchup, as it will likely go the way we all think it will.
PICK: HOUSTON
(8) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (9) Auburn Tigers
Remember Keegan Murray? He played for Iowa and was drafted fifth overall in the latest NBA Draft, picked up by the Sacramento Kings. He's having a very successful year at the next level. But luckily for Iowa, they have his twin brother, who plays the same way.Kris Murray is a 6'8, 215-lb power forward who is putting up a whopping 20.4 points per game, as well as 7.9 rebounds. He's one of the elite players in the Big 10, specifically at the power forward and center positions. Murray was voted a Third-Team All-American by AP yesterday.
Seriously, how stacked is that conference with bigs? They have Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana), Zach Edey (Purdue), Hunter Dickinson (Michigan), and Kris Murray, also known as the top four scorers in the conference.
Kris Murray is a 6'10 guy with a decent shot from three (34%); he's not a sniper, but he's also not a guy you can leave alone on the perimeter, because he will make you pay with open shots. This ability of his could help neutralize some of the rim protection Auburn has because bigs will have to slide out of position to guard Murray away from the rim.
The Tigers get after opponents with a balanced scoring attack, boasting four players averaging double digits. 6'10 forward Johni Broome leads the team with 14 points per game as well as an impressive 8.4 boards per game, and guard Wendell Greene puts up 13.8 points while dishing 4.2 assists per game on top of that.
Auburn's weakness is that they can't shoot the three at all, just 31.7% all season, which has them 322nd in the nation in that category. They hit just 6.5 deep shots on 20.7 attempts, both of which rank in the 200s.
Auburn is more of a defensive-minded team, whereas Iowa likes to run in transition (top 90 in the country in pace) and spread it out, shooting far more threes than Auburn does and hitting at a much better clip.
Overall, I just think Iowa's offense is going to be too much for Auburn to handle. Auburn does have a Murray-stopper in Johni Broome (that is a misnomer – I don't mean he will clamp Kris Murray necessarily, but instead mean he's physically able to handle some one that size). But if he can't hold on, I think Murray will have a day.
PICK: IOWA
(5) Miami Hurricanes vs (12) Drake Bulldogs
This will be one of the most interesting early-round matchups in the tournament, pitting two great shooting teams against each other. Both teams boast really good guard play; the coach's son for Drake, Tucker DeVries, is a great deep shooter who also stands at 6'7 and averages 19 points per game.The major story for the Hurricanes here is whether or not forward Norchad Omier will play, who was injured in the ACC Championship against Duke. As their starting power forward, Omier is averaging 13.6 points and 9.7 boards per game. If they have to play this game without him, the upset odds become even more favorable for the Drake Bulldogs.
Drake as a team shoots the ball well in general – in fact, both teams do. The Bulldogs shoot 37.3% from deep, which is good for 30th in the country in that category. Miami shoots 36.8% from deep, good for 55th, and has several stars; four of the Hurricanes starters average 13+ points per game: Isaiah Wong scores 16.2/game, Jordan Miller scores 15.3/game, the aforementioned Norchad Omier puts up 13.6, and former Kansas State guard Nijel Pack scores 13.2.
Drake's stars are the previously talked about Tucker DeVries (19 points/game) as well as Roman Penn (12.6 points/game). While Miami has more firepower, the loss of Omier is massive as he leads the team in rebounding as well as being third in scoring.
This won't be an easy matchup for Miami, despite the amount of points they score, and without an inside presence, I could see Drake pulling this one off.
Really, Drake started from the bottom, now they're here.
PICK: DRAKE
(6) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (11) Mississippi State Bulldogs/Pittsburgh Panthers
Texas fans know all about Iowa State, from whom they took their starting point guard, Tyrese Hunter. The Cyclones weren't happy about it, obviously, and split the season series with Texas, winning on their home floor, 78-67, and losing on the road, 70-54.Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, as we've seen over the course of the year. Nationally, they are ranked 22nd overall in points given up per game at 62.8, and according to KenPom, they are the eighth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency (Texas is 11th). Six Big XII teams are in the top 20 in this category.
ISU's stars are St. Bonaventure transfer guard Jaren Holmes (13.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists), guard Gabe Kalscheur (12.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists), and freshman Tamin Lipsey (7.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists). Their offense isn't high powered, and they're also lacking sharpshooter Caleb Grill, who was kicked off the team a few weeks ago for personal reasons.
I'm picking Mississippi State to win this game, so I'm going to take a calculated risk and just write about them, because I can write about 16 teams, but not 17. I happen to think MSU's coach Chris Jans is excellent (SirJabari Rice's former coach at New Mexico State), and that their elite, top-10 defense will stifle the Pitt Panthers' offense.
The Bulldogs' star is Tolu Smith, who puts up 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and shoots 58% from the field. His weakness is his FT shooting, where he hits just 58.5% on roughly seven attempts per game. A bit of a hack-a-Shaq candidate, Smith is a great inside player with no range outside of a few feet from the basket. Iowa State will have to play some denial defense and keep him out of the paint in position, because if they don't, they it could hurt them badly.
To try to stop Smith is ISU big Osun Osunniyi, who averages 8.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. They have other bigs, but Osunniyi is easily the best rotation center that they have. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, Osunniyi only plays about 20 minutes per game, while Smith plays about 28 – they'll have to find some one to guard him during those extra minutes.
Despite how sneaky good Mississippi State is, Iowa State is basically a version of them that can shoot better. The O/U in this one is going to be preposterous to the point I might even bet the over. As ugly as this game will be, I'm picking Iowa State to emerge.
PICK: IOWA STATE
(3) Xavier Musketeers vs. (14) Kennesaw State Owls
The Xavier Musketeers boast three spectacular guards, including a bonafide first-round draft pick in Colby Jones (15.2 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 4.3 Ast), who shoots 38% from deep on 3.3 attempts per game. They also star guard Souley Boum (16.5 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 4.4 Ast), forward Jack Nunge (14.1 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 2.1 Ast), and guard Adam Kunkel (10.5 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 3.0 Ast). Xavier lost second-leading scorer and senior forward Zach Freemantle earlier this season, who was putting up 15.3 per game.I will be perfectly honest with you and tell you I've watched exactly one Kennesaw State game this season, their conference championship against Liberty, where they won, 67-66. The Owls were the 1-seed in their conference tournament, and Liberty was the 2-seed, so Kennesaw State really made the NCAA Tournament the hard way, winning all of the games they needed to en route. .
Two upperclassman guards run the show for the Owls: junior Chris Youngblood (14.7 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 1.9 Ast) and senior Terrell Burden (13.5 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 4.2 Ast). Forward Demond Robinson (11.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast) is also a big contributor on the offensive end. Winning both conference crowns this season, this iteration of the Owls team is the best they've ever had in Kennesaw, Georgia – they will have support behind them.
While I probably would have liked Kennesaw State in some sort of upset early on against another team, I just think that Xavier has too much firepower. Their top four scorers are combined averaging 55.8 points per game. If they can go off like that, I just don't see the Owls hanging with them.
PICK: XAVIER
(7) Texas A&M Aggies vs. (10) Penn State Nittany Lions
Texas A&M really got hosed by the NCAA Selection Committee, being marked a 7-seed when in reality they were probably closer to a 5-seed. This happens every tournament, every year, but the A&M fanbase likes to talk about how they're the only team that has ever been screwed in the history of the sport.Remember last year when Virginia Tech was the most under-seeded team, and Texas had to take them on round one? They didn't have any issues there. Obviously one is an 11-seed and one is a 7-seed, so the comparison isn't perfect, but you see what I'm getting at? Texas may have to play an underrated A&M team, but that doesn't mean they're going to lose just because Texas teams in the past have.
Anyway, sorry to get tangential. The leader of the Aggie basketball team is All-American Honorable Mention Wade Taylor IV (16.5 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 4.0 Ast), who has been absolutely dynamic in the last few months. Yes, Alabama worked them in the SECCG, but A&M got there, and finished second in the SEC in both titles to Alabama, arguably the best team in the nation.
The Aggies were 15-3 in the SEC, which isn't exactly a great basketball conference this year with the struggles of some of its blue- and new-bloods. Still, A&M was able to put together a pretty impressive season that the Selection Committee clearly didn't care that much about by slighting them with the seed they received.
Remember – this team did beat Alabama on March 4th. They have something to them.
The leader for the Nittany Lions is Second-Team All-American guard Jalen Pickett (17.9 Pts, 7.3 Reb, 6.7 Ast), who is one of the best players in the nation with pretty absurd averages, as you can see. He's 6'4 and is his team's leading rebounder, which just goes to show the level at which he plays; he's also their leading assist-man. Their second-in-command is senior forward Seth Lundy (14.4 Pts, 6.3 Reb).
Penn State shoots the three really well – 38.5%, which is good for 13th in the country. Pickett himself shoots 38% on 3.3/game, while Lundy, an even bigger threat from deep, shoots 40.6% on 6.4/game. The Aggies don't shoot the ball well from deep, just 32.1%, so the Nittany Lions are going to have an advantage here.
Despite this, I just don't see A&M's falling here. Other than Pickett and Lundy, the Nittany Lions have only two scorers above eight points per game. If the Ags can get a handle on Pickett, I like their chances.
Also, beyond basketball, I think a second-round match between Texas and their friends in College Station is inevitable.
PICK: TEXAS A&M
(2) Texas Longhorns vs. (15) Colgate Raiders
Your Texas basketball Longhorns are a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and face off with the best three-point shooting team in the nation. Literally, the best team by percentage – 40.8%. Here's a small excerpt because from my earlier piece about Colgate:Oliver Lynch-Daniels shoots a blistering 50.3% (4.9 attempts) from three, while Ryan Moffat shoots 45.6% on 4.3 attempts. They also have Chandler Baker (43.4% on 2.2 attempts), Nicolas Louis-Jacque (42.1% on 1.2 takes per game), and Braeden Smith, who shoots 36.8% on 2.8 takes.
They averaged in the upper-70s in points per game at 76.5, and the engine to this offense is guard Tucker Richardson, who is the leading scorer (13.9 points/game) and leading assist man (5.8 dimes/game). He's also like the one guy on this roster that isn't an absolute sniper from deep. He used to be, averaging almost 37% last season, to this year's 31.9%.
So even though his numbers aren't great from deep, Texas will still have to fight over screens instead of playing drop because he could get hot. Texas will have to rely on its perimeter defense in this one to make sure they're not upset bait in their first game as a 2-seed. It's happened before, but I don't think this team lets it happen to them.
This game breaks down to athleticism, I think. Colgate can shoot, but like I said, they haven't faced an athletic perimeter defense like Texas. They're not facing Big XII teams every week, so if Texas goes in and plays like they would play in a conference game, Colgate will not shoot 40%+ from deep.
How Colgate does win is by hitting guys on the weak side of the defense with skip passes to get open shots. That is a bit of a weakness for the way the Texas defense sets up.
Still, I just don't see Colgate beating Texas. This is not the final Shaka Smart squad that lost to ACU. Different coach, (mostly) different players, and a new mindset. I think Texas wins this one, maybe not by 20+, but they will win nonetheless.
PICK: TEXAS
