Ok you money market people. My retirement date just got pushed out a couple years.
Talk me off the ledge.
Thank orange man?
Talk me off the ledge.
Thank orange man?
Market survivors?
- Thread starter Oldmanastro
- Start date
Temporarily yes, but how long this will linger....hopefully not too long.
My portfolio lost 3.96% collectively and I'm buying as much as I can afford this next 2 weeks.
Correction: The last 30mins of the day brought my loss to 4.94%
This is painful and has the potential to be devastating but really was necessary to give our younger generations a chance to have a strong country in the future. There really isn't any other way to prevent bankrupting or us fighting wars to erase our national debt.
Fingers crossed leaders come to the table and negotiates fair trade sooner than later.
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We were warned that there would be some pain early on.
I moved into equity indexed funds in November. Market goes up, I go up. Market takes a sh!t, I lose nothing.
My cash is sitting in Barclays at 4.3 and a bank in Panama (don't laugh) at 4.4.
When I see some bounce, I'll pounce. ETFs mostly.
I moved into equity indexed funds in November. Market goes up, I go up. Market takes a sh!t, I lose nothing.
My cash is sitting in Barclays at 4.3 and a bank in Panama (don't laugh) at 4.4.
When I see some bounce, I'll pounce. ETFs mostly.
I've been out of markets for some time. Granted, I have missed some of the tail upside but I am not participating in the losses.
The world is bifurcating, meaning that the US is no longer the policman for the world and that countries are on their own, except for Israel of course. This reordering of deck chairs will cause pain in stock markets for sometime til the future winners and lossers can be sorted out. Trump is trying to move the US to a mercantilist nation, reversing from one of financialization. (is that a word)? I expect a short term bottom here and a bounce but would exit stocks asap on any future bounce. The real bear markets are coming in medium to long term bonds. Stay out of bonds longer than 2 years in duration. Short term bonds are great right now because of their high rates, this won't last long so be ready to pivot.
I put most of my cash into my kids/ house/ business, etc.... I do have some cash is an algorithm that I created. I have shown some if it before. It has made 11% year to date. It's all currency trades. Anyway, friends and family want me to put it out for subs via mirroring... It does grind along. I do worry about counter party risk with brokerages and don't like giving away the blood, sweat, and tears that have gone into this.
Below, I have attached the trade summary page of my system/algo... the drawdowns are small and the win/loss frequency is close to 50/50. I have attached a live trade screen shot from this week so that you know it's real. I have added the % loss/gain for the year to the sheet. I don't typically track results in % win/loss but in risk, meaning amount risked per trade. My R or wins in risk per trade (1% risk per trade) is 14.46 ytd.
The world is bifurcating, meaning that the US is no longer the policman for the world and that countries are on their own, except for Israel of course. This reordering of deck chairs will cause pain in stock markets for sometime til the future winners and lossers can be sorted out. Trump is trying to move the US to a mercantilist nation, reversing from one of financialization. (is that a word)? I expect a short term bottom here and a bounce but would exit stocks asap on any future bounce. The real bear markets are coming in medium to long term bonds. Stay out of bonds longer than 2 years in duration. Short term bonds are great right now because of their high rates, this won't last long so be ready to pivot.
I put most of my cash into my kids/ house/ business, etc.... I do have some cash is an algorithm that I created. I have shown some if it before. It has made 11% year to date. It's all currency trades. Anyway, friends and family want me to put it out for subs via mirroring... It does grind along. I do worry about counter party risk with brokerages and don't like giving away the blood, sweat, and tears that have gone into this.
Below, I have attached the trade summary page of my system/algo... the drawdowns are small and the win/loss frequency is close to 50/50. I have attached a live trade screen shot from this week so that you know it's real. I have added the % loss/gain for the year to the sheet. I don't typically track results in % win/loss but in risk, meaning amount risked per trade. My R or wins in risk per trade (1% risk per trade) is 14.46 ytd.
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Nice work here. I have my kids at Treasury Direct (treasurydirect.gov) in 4 week notes which earn 4.3 or 4.4 whatever.
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young-uns.......since the dawn of the industrial age the market has risen and fallen.....always when most do not expect it. Smart guys like Warren Buffett just smile and do what they always do......make more money. Percentage wise we(meaning me) lost more money( on paper) several years ago. We never sell and it always comes back better than before. You just sell when it rises higher and higher and buy when it is dogshit ( simple sounding, but harder than hell to do)
Crash of 87 was a bad one.Late 90s Dot Com crash.....really bad in the later 90's.....2004....gut wrenching.....Covid years....Oh My!
The "little guy" is the key.When He finally throws in the towel and sells( losing big) you start to buy. When he gets the courage to buy back in it is time to sell.
Crash of 87 was a bad one.Late 90s Dot Com crash.....really bad in the later 90's.....2004....gut wrenching.....Covid years....Oh My!
The "little guy" is the key.When He finally throws in the towel and sells( losing big) you start to buy. When he gets the courage to buy back in it is time to sell.
Dot com bubble was the worst. You would think there would be bad news, and the market would make a giant correction in a couple of days and it would be over. But in 2000 - drip drip drip -- every.. single... day.
Very true and hard to stay the path. Buffett has always said to buy when everyone else is scared and sell when everyone else gets greedy. Seems to have worked out ok for that guy.
Currencies scare the hell outta me because the ease of manipulation. I do have a partial bitcoin though.....that kinda countsI've been out of markets for some time. Granted, I have missed some of the tail upside but I am not participating in the losses.
The world is bifurcating, meaning that the US is no longer the policman for the world and that countries are on their own, except for Israel of course. This reordering of deck chairs will cause pain in stock markets for sometime til the future winners and lossers can be sorted out. Trump is trying to move the US to a mercantilist nation, reversing from one of financialization. (is that a word)? I expect a short term bottom here and a bounce but would exit stocks asap on any future bounce. The real bear markets are coming in medium to long term bonds. Stay out of bonds longer than 2 years in duration. Short term bonds are great right now because of their high rates, this won't last long so be ready to pivot.
I put most of my cash into my kids/ house/ business, etc.... I do have some cash is an algorithm that I created. I have shown some if it before. It has made 11% year to date. It's all currency trades. Anyway, friends and family want me to put it out for subs via mirroring... It does grind along. I do worry about counter party risk with brokerages and don't like giving away the blood, sweat, and tears that have gone into this.
Below, I have attached the trade summary page of my system/algo... the drawdowns are small and the win/loss frequency is close to 50/50. I have attached a live trade screen shot from this week so that you know it's real. I have added the % loss/gain for the year to the sheet. I don't typically track results in % win/loss but in risk, meaning amount risked per trade. My R or wins in risk per trade (1% risk per trade) is 14.46 ytd.
That's what I did today and yesterday, load up on focused ETFs. As of today, the market sits almost exactly where it was 1 yr ago. I bought heavily (for me) the workhorses SCHDividends and SCHGrowth. Dividends to possibly offset some volatility and Growth because....well..some industries will come roaring back before others but I have no clue in which order.
we may still be in the "falling knife" stage of this correction.. but sooner or later the smart guys will decide that the over reaction and panic is about over and the market will come back......some!. It might take a few years to recover from this but thats ok by me. I always keep some "dry powder" but for the most part I fear inflation more than market corrections.
Yep. Nine out of the last five recessions have been predicted by the stock market. Old Wall Street saying. After watching the stock market open, I turned my attention to the bond market and saw the 10-year yield trading below 4% for most of the day. However, at the end of the day, it rallied to close right at 4%. Obviously, the bond market doesn’t think we are headed for a recession, so we are probably not. And then in conjunction with the jobs numbers, I’m confident that today’s stock market action was just one of its many head fakes. Stock market is notorious for its head fakes. If I was still a player, I would be putting money to work in the stock market right here.
Yes, possibly correct. This is why I said to stay out of long and medium term bonds above. There are 2 possible routes..... default and high inflation. Central banks always choose the later. Short term rates will go to zero or negative and medium long rates to the moon. Get the bonds out of your portfolio. The short term for a brief period will be good but negative rates are theft. The stock market may or may not crash, but if this scenario is true, commodities are your huckleberry. If we get a crash and deflation, cash in the mattress is your best friend. If Trump gets better trade deals, this market will sky rocket, epecially China and Europe.
They will be going down for a while, so if needed, now through the summer would be the time to act. After summer, up up and away.
I base this on a couple things.
1. The 2 year bond leads the Fed's overnight rate.... that's the rate everyone gets their panties in a wad over. There is no lead time because the Fed does what it wants to do. Though, they are not completley free of the market. Eventually the market gets what it wants.
2. Gold leads the 30 year by 20.5 weeks. Ya, check it out. It's going to get ugly for housing and for every loan above 2 years.
The government bond yeild curve has been inverted for some time. It's when it un-inverts (bull steepening) that the market goes down. I suspect this market has a while to run to the down side because of the length of the yield inversion.
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Could you break this down a little for me please. I ended up using equity from my property for a new construction build recently. The rate is locked.
Sure sorry, I'm not always clear. The part of the yield curve greater than 2 years in duration all the way up to 30 years, if gold is to be believed, is going higher in yield. Meaning that interest rates for home loans are going a lot higher in the near future (mid summer to end of summer). The 30 year will drag everything in the 2 year to 20 year higher in yield or down in price, bond puke lingo. Stock crash will push everything less than 2 years in duration lower in yield or up in price. This will acheive a normalized government bond yield curve and a return to a healthier economy in 16 to 20 months. This is the textbook look of a recession. Insert tariffs and world war, well it can get nasty.
Yield Curve Explained
Current Bond Yield Curve
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He's not talking about you. He's talking about the issuer of the loan.
At least that was my takeaway.
Fresh, as long as you are locked at current rates, you are good. The cost of money is going up long term. The main reason, baby boomers are retiring and taking cash out of the market and spending it on main street, thus begins another 30 year march of higher rates.
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This is a little bit off topic. Is someone willing to explain the pros and cons of corporate buy back stocks? I know it's when shareholders sell their share.
Company makes a huge profit or gets a big tax break-
They turn around and buy their own stock, thus driving up the price of the stock and making the C suite shareholders MORE rich.
The company seems more stable to the outside investor that sees stock prices climbing so they too jump on board and buy more- thus driving the price up more.
The company can then sell of shares any time they need a cash injection at a higher price than they bought the shares for.
I just wasn't thinking logically when I read your initial post about long term rates but it completely makes sense. If I remember correctly, in the early to mid 80s any rates below 10% were considered outstanding. Then again, you could buy a really nice house on 30ac under $80k as well.
Because when they buy it, there's a greater demand for it. Greater demand = higher price.
My view is - if the executives leave the excess money with the company, they’ll see a big balance and inevitably waste it on higher salaries, shaky acquisitions, etc. if they pay a dividend, shareholder has to pay a tax. Share buy backs are a tax free way to return value to the shareholder - we the owners.
My favorite Buffetism is: “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”.
Whoever said to do opposite of Cramer is a genius and probably batting 1000. 😂
Fwiw: I am surprised there is no crypto talk on this thread.
There's no way to accurately plot it. People will say "oh I've an algorithm that predicts the likely outcomes of blah blah blah...." that's bullshit.
I know super geeks with math degrees in analytics, abstract algebra-- I even know a dude that is literally a savant at Ergodic theory mathematics (it's like the hardest statistical probabilities math there is) and even he will tell you- it's impossible to accurately predict what crypto currencies will do from day to day.
Crypto is straight up Vegas, hairs on the back of your neck, dreams about the future, crystal ball style analysis. The people that do get lucky, did just that. They'd like you to believe they hit it big because they're smart- and developed a logical mathematical trend that lead them to this fortune.
But that's 99% bullsh!t.
Sorry, not sorry. I've been in the world of finance for almost 30 years now. I've met with billionaires, hedge fund managers, private equity groups, some of the heads of some of the largest banks in Europe, and even guys that work for the IMF and World Bank Group. There's no way to crack the code of "which crypto will go up and which will go down" with any certainty.
Most will go to zero because they have no utility. There are a select few that have real world use. You have to remember, everything will be tokenized from real estate to stocks and digital assets along with the blockchain are at the heart of it.
One of my best friends worked computer crimes for 20+ years. One of the original cyber-investigators and now he travels and teaches all around the world. He tells me there are only like ten people in the whole world who truly understand crypto-currency and eight of them are controlled by the Chicoms. I certainly don't know, but he's got a lot more experience in that arena than I do.
And that means the rank and file, the employees, are left out in the cold. Target, Home Depot, and especially Walmart are bandits.
Most of my money is professionally managed. For my 'play' account i hold onto a few stocks. I either go wildly spectulative (PLTR) or very conservative (WM). When i have some cash and feel the itch to buy something but all of my targets are overpriced, I buy a few shares of VXX because it is way down. When days like Thursday -Friday happen I sell the VXX and buy the most beatup name on my target list.
I strongly disagree. Capitalism my friend. If you don’t like your salary, change fields, change jobs, get more experience/education and move up. The company belongs to the shareholders. Compensation will follow the person that adds value.
I spent a good portion of my life avoiding VX.
Wait wut, not the same? Never mind. 😆
You brought up "speculative" plays. I like to find those and sometimes it works out.
So I would appreciate any thoughts on the following speculative pick RIVN.
First, I am no fan of EVs; they just don't fit my needs with range limitations and sometimes limited recharging options.
BUT, I think there might be a play for an EV alternative to Tesla. I have noticed more Rivians lately mostly because they tend to stand out with their featured LED accents. I do know that many Tesla owners have left-leaning tendencies and have become tired of Elon (and his fiscal fight to save America). My neighbor told me that he has canceled his energy management contract with Tesla (determines which power and when to move from/to in garage battery bank/grid based on real time market pricing) and is looking for a "I bought this before Elon went insane" bumper sticker for his Tesla since the resale market has fallen. He said next year he would like to sell his Tesla and would certainly consider a Rivian. My deer hunting buddy laughed when I told him my thoughts and said his Beto-loving friend from church had just sold his Tesla and bought a Rivian.
All that being said, do any of you think RIVN might be a good speculative play given the fact that there are a huge number of well-heeled Elon hating Libtards looking to make a virtue-signalling statement?
ETA: might be an opportunity to print up a bunch of "I bought this before Elon got sane" bumper stickers fo Amazon. Could look nice on my ICE Tahoe.
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No. Sincere all due respect, talk to non-liberal loons. Focus on what companies will benefit from the tariffs. There is your play (other than some select crypto assets).
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