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This poll was taken after the primaries, and it has some interesting things to me.
First, in head-to-head, Trump leads Biden by 11, 55-44. That's more than the 9 points he won by in 2020, and it's pretty similar to the rest of the polls around the country we keep seeing. Trump is doing 3 to 5 points better across the board than in 2020. This is a PROBLEM for the Dems. It's consistent, and shows no signs of changing. Right now, I would give Trump about an 80% chance of winning the election.
The Dems are STUPID. They've known for months and months that Biden is very unpopular, and yet no one stepped up to say we need to do something different. It's like lemmings marching off the cliff one by one. They keep hoping things will improve or Trump will have something happen. Hope is NOT a strategy.
Where Biden keeps killing the Dems is among minority voters. Biden leads by 30 among blacks and 5 among Hispanics. That is not nearly what he did in 2020. Dems have known this for a long time also, and keep pretending it will go away. It's really really aggravating to me as a Dem. It's like if you are an NFL team and your QB is 46 years old, and you hope the rest of the team can carry him. Nope.
The other thing is that RFK when added to the poll takes 12%, more from Biden. That is really going to hurt him in swing states (this isn't one).
But now to the Senate race. Cruz leads Alred by 6, 52-46. This is better news for the Dems, and worse for the Pubs. Alred is mostly unknown outside DFW. Cruz has massive name recognition. And yet he barely tops 50%. This race could get interesting. And get ready...Texas might very well be the state that determines the Senate. Lots and lots and lots of money is likely to get dumped into the state. Do I think Alred will win? No. But it's going to be a pretty close race.
