It's likely to be some time before we know for sure, especially seeing as close this is, but we can start to get some decent ideas pretty early.
Polls close at 6 PM Central in Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky, and they close at 6:30 in North Carolina.
The exit polls for each state are typically released after the polls close in those states. These polls don't have top lines, but they break down the vote by various groups, and if you add up each group you get to the topline. So we ought to know how the exit polls came out in VA, NC, and GA by 7:30 or 8.
How accurate are these? Here is how they were in 2020
Pennsylvania exit poll D 50.0%, R 48.5% (D+1.5)....actual D 50.0, R 48.8 (D+1.2)
Michigan: Exit Poll D 50.9, R 47.2 (D+3.7).....actual D 50.6, R 47.6 (D+2.8)
Wisconsin: Exit poill D 50.0%, R 48.7% (D+1.3)....actual D 49.5, R48.7 (D+0.7)
Georgia Exit poll D 49.8, R 49.4 (D+0.4)....actual D 49.5, R 49.2 (D+0.3)
Texas Exit poll D 45.6, R 52,8 (R+7.2)...actual D 46.5, R 52.1 (R+5.6)
Florida exit poll D 48.1, R 50.6 (R+2.5)...actual D 47.9, R 51.2 (R+3.3)
None of these was more than 1.6 points off the final margin, and there was not an real bias in either direction.
For grins, Wisconsin from 2016
Exit poll D 46.6, R 48.4 (R+1.7) actual D 46.6, R 47.2 (R+0.6)
PA 2016
Exit poll D 48.0, R 49.1 (R+1.1)...actual D 47.5, R 48.2 (R+0.7)
We won't know for sure by any means, but if you look, not one of these exit polls missed the final margin by more than 1.6 points. If we see any exit polls with a margin of more than 2, that's a big hint of how it's going to come out.
Polls close at 6 PM Central in Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky, and they close at 6:30 in North Carolina.
The exit polls for each state are typically released after the polls close in those states. These polls don't have top lines, but they break down the vote by various groups, and if you add up each group you get to the topline. So we ought to know how the exit polls came out in VA, NC, and GA by 7:30 or 8.
How accurate are these? Here is how they were in 2020
Pennsylvania exit poll D 50.0%, R 48.5% (D+1.5)....actual D 50.0, R 48.8 (D+1.2)
Michigan: Exit Poll D 50.9, R 47.2 (D+3.7).....actual D 50.6, R 47.6 (D+2.8)
Wisconsin: Exit poill D 50.0%, R 48.7% (D+1.3)....actual D 49.5, R48.7 (D+0.7)
Georgia Exit poll D 49.8, R 49.4 (D+0.4)....actual D 49.5, R 49.2 (D+0.3)
Texas Exit poll D 45.6, R 52,8 (R+7.2)...actual D 46.5, R 52.1 (R+5.6)
Florida exit poll D 48.1, R 50.6 (R+2.5)...actual D 47.9, R 51.2 (R+3.3)
None of these was more than 1.6 points off the final margin, and there was not an real bias in either direction.
For grins, Wisconsin from 2016
Exit poll D 46.6, R 48.4 (R+1.7) actual D 46.6, R 47.2 (R+0.6)
PA 2016
Exit poll D 48.0, R 49.1 (R+1.1)...actual D 47.5, R 48.2 (R+0.7)
We won't know for sure by any means, but if you look, not one of these exit polls missed the final margin by more than 1.6 points. If we see any exit polls with a margin of more than 2, that's a big hint of how it's going to come out.
