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Of Course Sam Ehlinger is Becoming a Legit NFL QB Prospect

Alex Dunlap

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Skill Player Snap Counts and Game-by-Game Percentages of Offensive Snaps (Post-WVU)

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2018 OL Grades By Week

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Deep Dig Grading Scale (each snap by each player is graded as its own independent event)

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2018 Cumulative Snaps Per Disruption Allowed and/or Penalty Caused (referred to as s/dis)

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Versus West Virginia:

LT Calvin Anderson - 73 snaps
2 pressures allowed
1 false start penalty
3 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.19
27.7 snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused (2018 season)

LG Patrick Vahe - 73 snaps
4 run-stuffs, 2 pressures allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 73.81
17.3 snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused (2018 season)

C Zach Shackelford - 73 snaps
2 pressures, 1 sack, 1 TFL allowed
2 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75
28.2 snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused (2018 season)

RG Elijah Rodriguez - 73 snaps
2 pressures, 1 sack allowed
1 holding penalty
2 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.13
27.6 snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused (2018 season)

RT Samuel Cosmi - 73 snaps
2 TFL allowed
3 knockdowns, 1 pin
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.73
42.5 snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused (2018 season)

We write about the OL every week. But following the loss to WVU, we felt it was important, through the disappointment some fans may be feeling, to shift gears with this edition of the Deep Dig and address what is probably (maybe?) a kinda important position on the football field: the quarterback.

People continue to ask, "is Sam Ehlinger becoming a legit NFL prospect?"

The answer is, "of course!"

Have you seen the guy recently? He's a sophomore leading what, by advanced metrics, is a Top 25 offense in all of the land. All of the sudden, Texas fans have gone from calling for OC Tim Beck's head to wondering aloud why formerly worshipped DC Todd Orlando's defense can't hold up its end of the bargain while the offense does its thing.

Ehlinger is a big young man with excellent ability to run the football, and if he continues with his development as it looks like he will, he will draw lazy comparisons to Tim Tebow because both are brick houses that are built more like linebackers than QBs. They can both hurt you with their feet and are good in the option game. Ehlinger even flashes a Tebow-esque jump-pass from time to time.

But where Ehlinger has improved the most in 2018 is as a passer. He's not a "running back playing QB" or whatever TCU HC Gary Patterson said of him prior to Texas' defeat of the Horned Frogs, he's becoming a legitimate pocket passer as well. Hell, not just a pocket passer, as he is also beginning to show skill, power and touch throwing the football on the move as well. Over the course of the most of this season, Ehlinger has flashed with absolute dimes on deep balls and touch passes alike.

Most importantly, he isn't turning the football over. He has attempted already 10 more passes than he did all of last season and has only thrown 2 interceptions. Compared to the 7 he threw on less volume last year, those splits are giants when considering how important the turnover battle is in the game of football. He's harnessing that gunslinger attitude he'll likely always have (and one you don't necessarily want to get rid of. Brett Favre - who has been Sam's idol growing up and even new-school stars like Pat Mahomes fancy themselves as the gunslinging type) but he's doing it without putting the ball in dangerous spots and making seat-of-his-pants decisions like in 2017.

So, here you have a big, strong kid with a really big arm that is beginning to show signs of excellent timing and touch while also being able to run the football with physicality and effectiveness when needed. That sounds a lot like Carson Wentz if we're being wildly optimistic with future development, and maybe Josh Allen if we're being more realistic. Where the Allen comparison doesn't hold much weight is in the arm-strength category as the aforementioned Mahomes and Allen have the two strongest arms in the NFL from a pure throwing distance and velocity standpoint. With that said -- even going back to HIGH SCHOOL -- Josh Allen has never finished a season with a 60-plus percent completion percentage and here in his sophomore year, Ehlinger is looking like he will eclipse that number in Year 2 after being at 57.5% as a true freshman. This season, with three games remaining, Ehlinger is at a 64.5% completion rate while he's thrown for 16 TDs and tacked on 9 more on via the ground. Considering he's only had 2 turnovers, he's having a better statistical year at the University of Texas as a sophomore than Josh Allen ever had at the University of Wyoming -- both from a projected overall final stats standpoint, and by FAR from an efficiency standpoint. At a better level of competition, no less.

And while the Josh Allen comparisons are ultimately arbitrary, the point is that Allen -- who was selected with the 7th overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft by the Buffalo Bills -- really only does one thing better than Ehlinger currently does as a sophomore: throwing the ball harder and farther. It's not always catchable but it goes far. To us, it just cements the idea that Ehlinger is most certainly on the path to becoming a legitimate NFL prospect and player who should be considered, if his sophomore-season breakout continues, as an early watch-list guy for all of the big national awards in 2019.

Sometimes you hit on QBs, sometimes you miss -- and badly. Texas has been on the wrong end of the misses in recent years. However, it shouldn't sour anyone's perception of what is currently happening in front of their own eyeballs in regard to the development of Sam Ehlinger at Texas. He's blossoming into a legit bad man at the QB position.

You bet your ass he's trending toward becoming not only a legit NFL prospect, but possibly a high-end one -- if his development continues. And speaking of his development, it's probably time to give a little bit of credit to one guy who's received very little around here during his entire tenure at Texas.

Just think, this column will get nowhere near the reads of the defensive breakdown we posted earlier in the week, as everyone is now so concerned with Orlando's scheme on that side of the football. The offense is playing well, so it's out of sight, out of mind.

All the while Tim Beck is sitting at a desk somewhere thinking to himself, "didn't they know that this was the plan all along?"
 
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