TaxProf Blog: Organ: Comparing Congressional Election Results With Presidential Election Results In Key Swing States
In trying to understand how statistics might inform one’s understanding of claims of electoral fraud and inform our understanding of how President Trump lost the election in key swing states, I have looked at the comparisons of voting within Congressional districts. Congressional districts...
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Organ: Comparing Congressional Election Results With Presidential Election Results In Key Swing States
By Jerry Organ
In trying to understand how statistics might inform one’s understanding of claims of electoral fraud and inform our understanding of how President Trump lost the election in key swing states, I have looked at the comparisons of voting within Congressional districts. Congressional districts provide an interesting framework because each Congressional district conceptually represents a comparable population of people, although both voter registration and voter turnout will vary across Congressional districts.
The Congressional results are from the CNN webpage.
The Presidential results are from the Daily KOS webpage.
This analysis proceeds in two parts. First, it looks at the overall distribution of votes across Congressional districts in key swing states to see if there are aberrational patterns worth noting. None were found. Second, it looks at results on a state-by-state basis to see what the state results can tell us about why President Trump lost and President-Elect Biden won in these states. There appears to be one key lesson from these state-by-state analyses. To the extent that there is a common theme across states, the theme appears to be that President Trump lost because he did not perform as well as Republican Congressional candidates in districts in which Republican Congressional candidates won in these states. Phrased differently, people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates failed to vote for President Trump in the same numbers as they voted for Republican Congressional candidates – resulting in President Trump’s loss to President-Elect Biden in at least three of these swing states.
Please note that because this blog post includes detailed analysis of the comparison of Congressional and Presidential results in five of the swing states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin -- it is a fairly long post.
- Looking at Overall Voting Patterns in Congressional Districts in Swing States
The numbers do not reflect any “aberrations” in terms of number of ballots cast across Congressional districts in the five swing states for which information is available (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin).
Across these five states there were 49 Congressional districts contested in the November 2020 election. The average number of votes cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional races in these 49 districts was 367,207, while the average number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates -- President Trump and President-Elect Biden --- across these 49 Congressional districts was 374,238. Among these five swing states, Nevada was at the low end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 324,838 for Congressional races and 343,344 for the Presidential race. (Notably, Nevada had the largest “spread” of 18,506.) Wisconsin was at the high end of the range for the average number of votes cast in each Congressional district, with averages of 403,509 for Congressional races and 405,131 for the Presidential race. (Notably, Wisconsin had the smallest “spread” of 1,622.)
In 24 Congressional districts, roughly half, the total number of votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates was within 30,000 of this average – between 344,000 and 404,000. Fourteen districts had between 406,000 and 460,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with 11 of these “higher-turnout” districts favoring President Trump. Eleven districts had between 221,000 and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates. Of those 11, six had between 312,000 votes and 336,000 votes cast for the two primary presidential candidates, with five of those six favoring President Trump. Five of the 11 featured between 221,000 and 288,000 votes casts for the two primary presidential candidates, with all five of these “lower-turnout” districts favoring President-Elect Biden.
Thus, when looking at the data broadly, there is nothing unusual in the data to suggest electoral fraud of any sort. There is a relatively broad distribution with a modest concentration in the middle of the range, as one would expect. There is no Congressional district in which an “aberrational” number of votes were cast that would be consistent with a claim that there were “tens of thousands” or “hundreds of thousands” of ballots that suddenly appeared. Indeed, in two of the Congressional districts in which the President’s campaign has challenged vote counts – one covering parts of Wayne County in Michigan (288,000) and one coverings parts of Milwaukee County in Wisconsin (314,000) – there were a relatively small number of votes compared to the average across Congressional districts.
- State-by-State Analysis
These data are complicated by the fact that more people voted in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections. In Wisconsin, there were 12,980 more votes for the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates across all Congressional districts. In Georgia, there were 43,024 more votes in the Presidential race. In Arizona there were 66,995 more votes in the Presidential race. In Nevada, there were 74,024 more votes in the Presidential race. Finally, in Michigan, there were 147,484 more votes in the Presidential race.
These “extra” Presidential voters – voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in a Congressional election -- make the analysis of Presidential voting difficult because there are some “unknowns” related to these “extra” Presidential voters.
First, we don’t really know the number of “extra” Presidential voters. The number of “extra” Presidential voters noted above within each state is the minimum number of “extra” Presidential voters. This number is derived based on the assumption that all people who voted in the Congressional election in a given district also voted in the Presidential election. That may not be true. For example, some people who voted in the Congressional election may have decided not to vote in the Presidential election. Thus, the number of “extra” Presidential voters could be somewhat larger in each state.
Second, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate is larger than the number of people voting for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we can’t really identify whether that is because of “extra” Presidential voters or because of voters who switched sides – voters who voted for one party’s Congressional candidate and then voted for the other party’s Presidential candidate.
Third, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, that difference reflects the minimum number of people who voted in the Congressional election but chose not to vote for the Presidential candidate of the same party. Given the existence of “extra” voters, there could be an even larger number of people who voted for a given party’s Congressional candidate but did not vote for that party’s Presidential candidate.
Fourth, when the number of people voting for a Presidential candidate in a Congressional district is less than the number of people who voted for that party’s Congressional candidate in that district, we cannot know for sure whether those not voting for the Presidential candidate of the same party chose not to vote or chose to vote for the candidate of the other party.
Fifth, we cannot know for sure what the “split” was in terms of “extra” Presidential voters – i.e., the number who voted for President Trump as compared with the number who voted for President-Elect Biden.
Thus, when one looks at the data on a state-by-state basis, one simply has to try to look at net gains (losses) for Presidential candidates relative to their party’s Congressional candidates. One cannot always explain the reasons for the difference – or may only be able to explain partially the reasons for the difference.
- ARIZONA
The Presidential election in Arizona garnered greater participation, with a total of 3,333,829 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden. President Trump received 1,661,686 (24,170 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,672,143 (42,825 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates). In total, there were 66,995 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.
Table 1 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional districts – AZ4, AZ5, and AZ8 -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won. In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.
In AZ5, President Trump gained 396 additional votes compared to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 12,099 additional votes compared to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 11,703.
In AZ8, Trump had 190 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 10,875 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 11,065.
Finally, in AZ4, Trump gained 2,120 votes, while Biden gained 5,540, a net gain of 3420 for Biden.
In just these three “Republican” Congressional districts Biden had a net gain of 26,188 in total. The relative gain for Biden in these three districts almost certainly reflects that some number of people who voted for the Republican Congressional candidate did not vote for President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential race or voted instead for President-Elect Biden. (The net gain (or loss) for Biden (Column I) is calculated by taking the number of votes for Biden (Column E) less the number of Democratic Congressional votes (Column B) (tabulated in Column H) and then subtracting the difference between the number of votes for Trump (Column D) less the number of Republic Congressional votes (Column A) (tabulated in Column G).)
In three other Congressional districts, Biden also saw more modest gains.
In AZ9, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 2,514 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden saw a gain of 7,098 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain for Biden of 4,584.
In AZ2, another Democratic Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 828, while Biden saw a gain of 3,423, for a net gain for Biden of 2,635.
Finally, in AZ6, another Republican Congressional district, Trump saw a gain of 4,383, while Biden saw a gain of 4,721, a net gain for Biden of 338. Across these three Congressional districts, Biden had a net gain of 7,557 in total.
Interestingly, however, in the remaining three “Democratic” districts – AZ1, AZ3, and AZ7 -- districts in which the Democratic candidate for Congress and President-Elect Biden won, Biden experienced a net loss. That is, the margin for Biden was less than the margin for the Democratic Congressional candidate.
In AZ7, Trump gained 5,210 relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden lost 323 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 5,533.
In AZ1, Trump gained 3,964 votes, while Biden lost 1,287 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 5,251.
Finally, in AZ3, Trump gained 4,945, while Biden gained 639 votes, for a net loss for Biden of 4,306 votes.
In these three Democratic Congressional districts, Biden experienced a net loss of 15,090 in total.
TABLE 1 – Arizona Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons
| District | A. Rep. | B. Dem. | C. Total | D. Trump | E. Biden | F. Total | G. Trump Excess (Def.) | H. Biden Excess (Def.) | I. Biden Net Gain (Loss) |
| AZ1 | 176709 | 188469 | 365178 | 180673 | 187182 | 367855 | 3964 | (1287) | (5251) |
| AZ2 | 170975 | 209945 | 380920 | 171803 | 213408 | 385211 | 828 | 3463 | 2635 |
| AZ3 | 94594 | 174243 | 268837 | 99539 | 174882 | 274421 | 4945 | 639 | (4306) |
| AZ4 | 278002 | 120484 | 398486 | 280122 | 126024 | 406146 | 2120 | 5540 | 4584 |
| AZ5 | 262414 | 183171 | 445585 | 262810 | 195270 | 458080 | 396 | 12099 | 11703 |
| AZ6 | 217783 | 199644 | 417427 | 222166 | 204365 | 426531 | 4383 | 4721 | 338 |
| AZ7 | 50226 | 165452 | 215678 | 55436 | 165129 | 220565 | 5210 | (323) | (5533) |
| AZ8 | 251633 | 170816 | 422449 | 251443 | 181691 | 433134 | (190) | 10875 | 11065 |
| AZ9 | 135180 | 217094 | 352274 | 137694 | 224192 | 361886 | 2514 | 7098 | 4584 |
| Total | 1637516 | 1629318 | 3266834 | 1661686 | 1672143 | 3333829 | 24170 | 42825 | 18655 |
| Deficit | -8,198 | Increase | 24170 | 42825 | 66995 | Margin | 10467 |
With net gains for Biden in six Congressional districts (four of which were Republican districts), totaling 33,745, and net gains for Trump (net losses for Biden) in three Democratic Congressional districts, totaling 15,090, Biden gained statewide a net of 18,655, enough to take a Democratic deficit of 8,198 in the Congressional races and turn it into a surplus of 10,457 in the Presidential race.
Biden’s win in Arizona was cobbled together across six of the nine Congressional districts, but it was primarily Biden’s ability to gain ground in two Republican districts – AZ5 and AZ8 – with a net improvement of 22,768 votes over the Democratic Congressional candidates in those two districts—that was largely outcome determinative.
Notably, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud. Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in all four Republican Congressional districts along with two other Democratic Congressional districts, with two of the Republican Congressional districts -- AZ5 and AZ8 -- being the most notable.
- GEORGIA
The Presidential election in Georgia garnered slightly greater participation overall, with 4,935,500 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden. Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,461,855 votes (37,532 FEWER votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia). By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,473,645 (80,556 MORE votes than Democratic Congressional candidates). Simply put, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia, he would have won Georgia. The reason President Trump lost Georgia is because at least 37,532 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Georgia did not vote for President Trump, and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden instead.
In Georgia, President Trump started with a 106,298 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump. But that is not what happened. Instead, at least 37,532 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump. If we assume that all the Republican Congressional voters who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 75,064 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden. In addition, as in Arizona, there were at least 43,024 additional voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections.
Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 118,088, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 106,298 votes.
There were 10 Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, seven of which were Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won). In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. In six of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 10,000 votes.
In GA11, Trump lost 10,329 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 11,030 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 22,359.
In GA3, Trump lost 5,528, while Biden gained 10,433, a net gain of 15,961.
In GA10, Trump lost 5,021, while Biden gained 9,020, a net gain of 14,041.
In GA1, Trump lost 4,613, while Biden gained 8,327, a net gain of 12,940.
In GA12, Trump lost 3,896, while Biden gained 7,577, a net gain of 11,473.
In GA8, Trump lost 2,831, while Biden gained 7,652, a net gain of 10,483.
In the seventh Republican district, GA9, Trump lost 758, while Biden gained 5,684, a net gain of 6,442.
Just across those seven Republican districts, Biden’s net gain totaled 93,699.
The three Democratic Congressional districts in which a shift in favor of Biden occurred were GA5, GA6, and GA7. These were districts in which Biden beat Trump by more than the Democratic Congressional candidate beat the Republican Congressional candidate.
In GA5, Trump lost 6,725 votes, while Biden gained 11,201 votes, a net gain of 17,926.
In GA6, Trump lost 14,210 votes, while Biden gained 2,847, a net gain of 17,057.
In GA7, Trump lost 5,354, while Biden gained 8,244, a net gain of 13,598.
Across these three districts, Biden gained 47,951.
The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump, three of which were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes).
In GA2, President Trump gained 9,099 votes while President-Elect Biden lost 6,417 votes, a net loss for Biden of 15,516.
In GA13, Trump gained 4,454 votes, while Biden lost 1,046 votes, a net loss for Biden of 5,500.
In GA4, Trump gained 2,999, while Biden gained 2,829, a net loss for Biden of 170 votes.
Finally, in GA14, a Republican Congressional district, Trump gained 5,181 votes, while Biden gained 3,175, for a net loss for Biden of 2,006 votes.
In total, across these four Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 23,192 votes.
TABLE 2 – Georgia Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons
| District | A. Rep. | B. Dem. | C. Total | D. Trump | E. Biden | F. Total | G. Trump Excess (Def.) | H. Biden Excess (Def.) | I. Biden Net Gain (Loss) |
| G1 | 189457 | 135238 | 324695 | 184844 | 143565 | 328409 | (4613) | 8327 | 12940 |
| G2 | 111620 | 161397 | 273017 | 120719 | 154980 | 275699 | 9099 | (6417) | (15516) |
| G3 | 241526 | 129792 | 371318 | 235998 | 140225 | 376223 | (5528) | 10433 | 15961 |
| G4 | 69393 | 278906 | 348299 | 72392 | 281735 | 354127 | 2999 | 2829 | (170) |
| G5 | 52646 | 301857 | 354503 | 45921 | 313058 | 358979 | (6725) | 11201 | 17926 |
| G6 | 189320 | 216775 | 406095 | 175110 | 219622 | 394732 | (14210) | 2847 | 17057 |
| G7 | 180564 | 190900 | 371464 | 175210 | 199144 | 374354 | (5354) | 8244 | 13598 |
| G8 | 198701 | 109264 | 307965 | 195870 | 116916 | 312786 | (2831) | 7652 | 10483 |
| G9 | 292750 | 79797 | 372547 | 291992 | 85481 | 377473 | (758) | 5684 | 6442 |
| G10 | 235810 | 142636 | 378446 | 230789 | 151656 | 382445 | (5021) | 9020 | 14041 |
| G11 | 245259 | 160623 | 405882 | 234930 | 171653 | 406583 | (10329) | 11030 | 21359 |
| G12 | 181038 | 129061 | 310099 | 177142 | 136638 | 313780 | (3896) | 7577 | 11473 |
| G13 | 81476 | 279045 | 360521 | 85930 | 277999 | 363929 | 4454 | (1046) | (5500) |
| G14 | 229827 | 77798 | 307625 | 235008 | 80973 | 315981 | 5181 | 3175 | (2006) |
| Total | 2499387 | 2393089 | 4892476 | 2461855 | 2473645 | 4935500 | (37532) | 80556 | 118088 |
| Deficit | -106298 | Change | -37532 | 80556 | 43024 | Margin | 11790 |
With net gains of 93,699 in seven Republican Congressional districts, net gains of 47,951 in three Democratic Congressional districts, and a net loss of 23,192 in the other four Congressional districts, Biden had an overall net gain of 118,088 – more than enough to overcome the 106,298 vote advantage that Republican Congressional candidates had over Democratic Congressional candidates and turn it into a 11,790 vote margin of victory.
Biden’s win in Georgia resulted from widespread modest gains in 10 of the 14 Congressional districts, including seven Republican Congressional districts. As noted above, President Trump lost Georgia because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned him and appear to have voted for President-Elect Biden instead. The problem for President Trump in Georgia was not a function of electoral fraud. Nothing was stolen. Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Georgia) to President-Elect Biden.
- MICHIGAN
As with Arizona and Georgia, there were a large number of voters who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections. As a result, the Presidential election in Michigan generated 5,453,854 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, an increase of 147,484 voters. Significantly, however, President Trump received only 2,649,852 votes (31,971 more votes than Republican Congressional candidates in Michigan). By contrast, President-Elect Biden received 2,804,040 (115,513 more votes than Democratic Congressional candidates).
Given how the Congressional vote unfolded in Michigan, President Trump was unlikely to carry the day, but the Presidential vote swung even more in favor of President-Elect Biden, expanding the margin of victory to over 150,000.
There were ten Congressional districts in which shifts in favor of Biden occurred, including all seven Republican Congressional districts (districts in which the Republican Congressional candidate and President Trump both won). In each of those seven Republican Congressional districts, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate. In four of those seven districts, the net gain for Biden was at least 30,000 votes. These four Republican Congressional districts marked the vast majority of Biden’s gains.
In MI6, Trump lost 13,988 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate while Biden gained 28,057 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 42,045.
In MI2, Trump lost 13,303 votes, while Biden gained 22,922 a net gain of 36,225.
In MI1, Trump lost 12,126, while Biden gained 18,074, a net gain of 30,200.
In MI4, Trump lost 8,182, while Biden gained 21,829, a net gain of 30,011.
Across these four Republican Congressional districts President-Elect Biden gained 138,481 votes
In the other three Republican Congressional districts (MI3, MI7, MI10), and in three Democratic Congressional districts (MI11, MI13, MI14), President-Elect Biden experienced more modest gains. Taking the three Republican Congressional districts first:
In MI3, Trump lost 5,887, while Biden gained 4,806, a net gain of 10,693.
In MI7, Trump lost 2,941, while Biden gained. 5,198, for a net gain of 8,139.
In MI10, Trump actually gained 2,264 votes, but Biden gained 8,708, a net gain of 6,444.
In the three Democratic Congressional districts, President Trump gained votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, but President-Elect Biden gained more votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate.
In M11, Trump gained 1,394 votes, but Biden gained 11,568 votes, a net gain of 10,174.
In MI13, Trump gained 4,851 votes, while Biden gained 6,330, a net gain of 1,479.
In MI14, Trump gained 5,367, while Biden gained 5,477, a net gain of 110.
Across this combination of three Republican Congressional districts and three Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden gained a total of 37,039 votes. Thus, these six districts were helpful to Biden, but were far less helpful than the first four Republican Congressional districts described above.
The other four Congressional districts swung in favor of President Trump by between 18,000 and 29,000 votes. Three of these were Democratic Congressional districts (districts in which both the Democratic Congressional candidate and President-Elect Biden received the most votes). One was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race.
In MI5, President Trump gained 22,440 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden lost 7372 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss of 29,812 for Biden.
In MI9, Trump gained 21,785, while Biden lost 1,060, a net loss of 22,845 for Biden.
In MI12, Trump gained 17,173, while Biden lost 3,187, a net loss of 20,360.
Finally, in the “mixed” district, MI8, Trump gained 13,124, while Biden lost 5,837, a net loss of 18,961.
In these four districts, President-Elect Biden experienced a net loss of 91,978 votes.
Table 3 – Michigan Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons
| District | A. Rep. | B. Dem. | C. Total | D. Trump | E. Biden | F. Total | G. Trump Excess (Def.) | H. Biden Excess (Def.) | I. Biden Net Gain (Loss) |
| MI1 | 256581 | 153328 | 409909 | 244455 | 171402 | 415857 | (12126) | 18074 | 30200 |
| MI2 | 238711 | 154122 | 392833 | 225408 | 177044 | 402452 | (13303) | 22922 | 36225 |
| MI3 | 213649 | 189769 | 403418 | 207762 | 194575 | 402337 | (5887) | 4806 | 10693 |
| MI4 | 242621 | 120802 | 363423 | 234439 | 142631 | 377070 | (8182) | 21829 | 30011 |
| MI5 | 150772 | 196599 | 347371 | 173212 | 189227 | 362439 | 22440 | (7372) | (29812) |
| MI6 | 211496 | 152085 | 363581 | 197508 | 180142 | 377650 | (13988) | 28057 | 42045 |
| MI7 | 227524 | 159743 | 387267 | 224583 | 164941 | 389524 | (2941) | 5198 | 8139 |
| MI8 | 202525 | 217922 | 420447 | 215649 | 212085 | 427734 | 13124 | 5837 | (18961) |
| MI9 | 153296 | 230318 | 383614 | 175081 | 229258 | 404339 | 21785 | (1060) | (22845) |
| MI10 | 271607 | 138179 | 409786 | 273871 | 146887 | 420758 | 2264 | 8708 | 6444 |
| MI11 | 215405 | 226128 | 441533 | 216799 | 237696 | 454495 | 1394 | 11568 | 10174 |
| MI12 | 117719 | 254957 | 372676 | 134892 | 251770 | 386662 | 17173 | (3187) | (20360) |
| MI13 | 53311 | 223205 | 276516 | 58162 | 229535 | 287697 | 4851 | 6330 | 1479 |
| MI14 | 62664 | 271370 | 334034 | 68031 | 276847 | 344878 | 5367 | 5477 | 110 |
| Total | 2617881 | 2688527 | 5306408 | 2649852 | 2804040 | 5453892 | 31971 | 115513 | 83542 |
| Surplus | 70646 | Change | 31971 | 115513 | 147484 | Margin | 154188 |
With net gains of 138,481 votes in four Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 37,039 in six other Congressional districts (three Republican and three Democratic), and a net loss of 91,978 votes in the other four Congressional districts (three of which were Democratic districts and one of which President Trump won even though a Democrat won the Congressional race), President-Elect Biden had an overall net gain of 83,542 votes to supplement the 70,646 vote margin that Democratic Congressional candidates had over Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 154,188 vote margin of victory.
Biden’s win in Michigan resulted from significant gains in four Republican Congressional districts supplemented by widespread modest gains in six other Congressional districts, counterbalanced by losses in four Democratic Congressional districts. President Trump was likely to lose Michigan, given that there were more votes for Democratic Congressional candidates than for Republican Congressional candidates, but the margin expanded primarily because large numbers of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned President Trump and either did not vote in the Presidential election or voted for President-Elect Biden. The problem for President Trump in Michigan was not a function of electoral fraud. The election in Michigan was not stolen. Trump lost in Michigan largely because of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who voted for Biden instead of Trump and thereby assured President-Elect Biden the victory in Michigan.
- NEVADA
The Presidential election in Nevada garnered greater participation, with a total of 1,373,377 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden, 74,024 votes more than were cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates in the Congressional elections. President Trump received 669,891 (36,064 more votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 703,486 (37,960 more votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates). In total, there were 74,024 more votes cast for one of the two primary presidential candidates than for all of the Republican and Democratic Congressional candidates.
Table 4 demonstrates that there was a shift in favor of Biden in the one Republican Congressional district, and that there was a shift in favor of Trump in the three Democratic Congressional districts.
In NV2, the one Republican Congressional district, Trump lost 5,823 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden gained 15,244 votes relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, for a net gain of 21,067 votes for Biden.
In NV1, NV3, and NV4, the three Democratic Congressional districts, however, it was a different story.
In NV3, Trump gained 22,327 votes relative to the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden gained 10,760 relative to the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net loss for Biden of 11,567.
In NV1, Trump gained 10,486, while Biden gained 5,556, a net loss for Biden of 4,930.
In NV4, Trump gained 9,074, while Biden gained 6,400, a net loss for Biden of 2,674.
Across these three Congressional districts, Biden saw a net loss of 19,171. Thus, across all four Congressional districts in Nevada, Biden saw a net gain of 1,896, slightly increasing the margin of victory in the state beyond the margin Democratic Congressional candidates held over Republican Congressional candidates.
Table 4 – Nevada Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons
| District | A. Rep. | B. Dem. | C. Total | D. Trump | E. Biden | F. Total | G. Trump Excess (Def.) | H. Biden Excess (Def.) | I. Biden Net Gain (Loss) |
| N1 | 74490 | 137868 | 212358 | 84976 | 143424 | 228400 | 10486 | 5556 | (4930) |
| N2 | 216078 | 155780 | 371858 | 210255 | 171024 | 381279 | (5823) | 15244 | 21067 |
| N3 | 190975 | 203421 | 394396 | 213302 | 214181 | 427483 | 22327 | 10760 | (11567) |
| N4 | 152284 | 168457 | 320741 | 161358 | 174857 | 336215 | 9074 | 6400 | (2674) |
| Total | 633827 | 665526 | 1299353 | 669891 | 703486 | 1373377 | 36064 | 37960 | 1896 |
| Surplus | 31699 | Change | 36064 | 37960 | 74024 | Margin | 33595 |
President-Elect Biden’s win in Nevada started with a slightly stronger showing by Democratic Congressional candidates than by Republican Congressional candidates. As in Arizona, there were tens of thousands of voters who voted in the Presidential race but not in the Congressional races. Interestingly, Biden gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district while Trump gained ground in all three Democratic Congressional districts, with the overall change being marginal.
Once again, this pattern of gains and losses across Congressional districts hardly presents evidence of a coordinated plan to commit election fraud. Biden lost ground in three Democratic Congressional districts and gained ground in the one Republican Congressional district. The Nevada story is a story of more people voting in the Presidential election than in the Congressional elections, with slightly more of those people seemingly voting for Biden than for Trump.
- WISCONSIN
The Presidential election in Wisconsin garnered slightly greater participation, with a total of 3,241,050 votes cast for President Trump or President-Elect Biden. President Trump received 1,610,184 (51,215 FEWER votes than the total cast for Republican Congressional candidates), but President-Elect Biden received 1,630,866 (64,195 MORE votes than the total cast for Democratic Congressional candidates). Simply put, as with Georgia, if President Trump had received as many votes as the Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin, he would have won Wisconsin. The reason President Trump lost Wisconsin is because at least 51,215 people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates in Wisconsin did not vote for President Trump.
In Wisconsin, President Trump started with a 94,728 advantage if all people voting for Republican Congressional candidates had voted for President Trump and all people voting for Democratic Congressional candidates had voted for President-Elect Biden. But that is not what happened. Instead, at least 51,215 voters who voted for Republican Congressional candidates did not vote for President Trump and either did not vote or may have voted for President-Elect Biden. If we assume that all voters in Republican Congressional districts who did not vote for President Trump voted for President-Elect Biden, that would have resulted in a “swing” of 102,430 votes in favor of President-Elect Biden. That would have been enough, by itself, to swing Wisconsin to Biden.
In addition, there were at least 12,980 people who voted in the Presidential election but not in the Congressional elections. Through the combination of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but did not vote President Trump and may have voted for President-Elect Biden instead, along with some number of additional Presidential voters, President-Elect Biden had a net gain of 115,410, more than enough to overcome the initial deficit of 94,728 votes.
Table 5 demonstrates that the biggest shifts in favor of Biden occurred in three Republican Congressional Districts – WI1, WI5, and WI8 – all in the eastern part of the state -- in which the Republican candidate for Congress and President Trump won. In each of those districts, however, the margin for Trump was less than the margin for the Republican Congressional candidate.
In WI8, President Trump had 27,033 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while President-Elect Biden had 24,578 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 51,611 for Biden.
In WI1, Trump has 17,603 fewer votes, while Biden had 19,772 more votes, a net gain of 37,375 for Biden.
In WI5, Trump had 9,631 fewer votes, while Biden had 11,949 more motes, a net gain of 21,580.
Across just these three Congressional districts – all Republican districts – Biden had a net gain of 110,566. These three Republican Congressional districts, on their own, essentially cost Trump the state of Wisconsin.
Two other Republican Congressional districts and two Democratic Congressional districts also favored Biden, although by much more modest amounts. The two Republican Congressional districts were WI6 and WI7; the Democratic Congressional districts were W2 and W4.
In WI6, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 6054 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 6,217 more votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 12,272 for Biden.
In WI4, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,064 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 9,595 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 8,531 for Biden.
In WI2, a Democratic Congressional district, Trump had 1,867 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 5,284 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 7,151 for Biden.
Finally, in WI7, a Republican Congressional district, Trump had 3,226 fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 2,363 votes more than the Democratic Congressional candidate, a net gain of 5,589 for Biden.
Across these four Congressional districts, Biden had a total net gain of 33,543 votes.
The final Congressional district, W3, was a “mixed” district – a district in which the Democratic Congressional candidate won in the Congressional race, but in which President Trump won in the Presidential race. In W3, Trump garnered 13,135 more votes than the Republican Congressional candidate, while Biden had 15,564 fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate, resulting in a net loss for Biden of 28,699 votes.
Table 5 – Wisconsin Congressional and Presidential Voting Comparisons
| District | A. Rep. | B. Dem. | C. Total | D. Trump | E. Biden | F. Total | G. Trump Excess (Def.) | H. Biden Excess (Def.) | I. Biden Net Gain (Loss) |
| W1 | 238271 | 163170 | 401441 | 220668 | 182942 | 403610 | (17603) | 19772 | 37375 |
| W2 | 138306 | 318523 | 456829 | 136439 | 323807 | 460246 | (1867) | 5284 | 7151 |
| W3 | 189524 | 199870 | 389394 | 202659 | 184306 | 386965 | 13135 | (15564) | (28699) |
| W4 | 70769 | 232668 | 303437 | 71833 | 242263 | 314096 | 1064 | 9595 | 8531 |
| W5 | 265434 | 175902 | 441336 | 255803 | 187851 | 443654 | (9631) | 11949 | 21580 |
| W6 | 238874 | 164239 | 403113 | 232820 | 170457 | 403277 | (6054) | 6218 | 12272 |
| W7 | 252048 | 162741 | 414789 | 248822 | 165104 | 413926 | (3226) | 2363 | 5589 |
| W8 | 268173 | 149558 | 417731 | 241140 | 174136 | 415276 | (27033) | 24578 | 51611 |
| 1661399 | 1566671 | 3228070 | 1610184 | 1630866 | 3241050 | (51215) | 64195 | 115410 | |
| Deficit | 94728 | Change | (51215) | 64195 | 12980 | Margin | 20628 |
With net gains of 110,566 votes in three Republican Congressional districts, and net gains of 33,543 in four other Congressional districts (two Republican and two Democratic), and a net loss of 28,699 in one “mixed” Congressional district, Biden had an overall net gain of 115,410 votes to overcome the 94,728 vote deficit that Democratic Congressional candidates had relative to Republican Congressional candidates, to yield the 20,628 vote margin of victory in Wisconsin.
Biden’s win in Wisconsin resulted almost entirely from significant gains in three Republican Congressional districts in the eastern portion of the state (gains generated significantly by people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates, did not vote for President Trump, and may have voted for President-Elect Biden). The gains for Biden across the other four districts were largely counterbalanced by the net loss for Biden in W3. As noted above, President Trump lost Wisconsin because a number of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates abandoned Trump and either did not vote or voted for President-Elect Biden. The problem for President Trump in Wisconsin was not a function of electoral fraud. Nothing was stolen. Rather, it was a function of dissatisfaction among a large enough group of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates but who chose not to vote for President Trump and gave their votes (and a victory in Wisconsin) to President-Elect Biden.
- Concluding Thoughts
Of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net gains in 24 of those districts. Most significantly, in 20 of those districts, President Trump garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidate in those districts – so in 20 of those districts Trump lost votes that had gone to Republican Congressional candidates.
Of the 24 Democratic Congressional districts, President-Elect Biden had net losses in 13 of those districts. More significantly, in only eight of those districts, did President-Elect Biden garner fewer votes than the Democratic Congressional candidate in those districts.
One intriguing aspect of these data involves the inverse relationship between the Congressional results in a given district and the results in the Presidential race. In 37 of the 49 Congressional districts (24 Republican and 13 Democratic), the Presidential candidate from the party opposite of the party that won the Congressional election had a net gain in the district relative to the corresponding Congressional candidate. In 28 of the 49 Congressional districts (20 Republican and 8 Democratic), the Presidential candidate for the party that won the Congressional election actually tallied fewer votes than the Congressional candidate of the same party. The problem for President Trump is that this happened in 80% of the Republican Congressional districts, while it only happened in only 33% of the Democratic Congressional districts. This suggests people who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates were more likely to be loyal to their presidential flag bearer than were people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates.
As one reflects on the unfounded allegations of electoral fraud that have been rejected by state and federal courts in each of these states, I think one needs to consider what these data suggest. Particularly in jurisdictions like Georgia and Wisconsin, where Republicans garnered more votes than Democrats in the Congressional races, but President Trump managed to lose, these data show that President Trump lost in these jurisdictions because in multiple counties in multiple Republican Congressional districts, dozens or hundreds or thousands of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates opted not to vote for President Trump and may have opted to vote for President-Elect Biden.
Nothing was stolen. Nothing was taken from President Trump. President Trump lost in these five swing states because he failed to maintain the margin of victory of Republican Congressional candidates in 24 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, and in fact, garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidates in 20 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts.
Jerry Organ, Legal Education, News, Political News | Permalink
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Conclusion:
"Jerry Organ decided to do a deep dive into the numbers, just to make sure. And we do mean deep—7,517 words' worth. His conclusion, at the end of all that analysis: "Nothing was stolen. Nothing was taken from President Trump."
Organ's specific approach is to compare the two presidential candidates' performances, vote-wise, to the performance of the House candidates in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. The general idea is that looking at things through that lens will give us a rough sense of whether the presidential candidate held on to the voters from his party, or if he bled some of them. As you might guess, Trump did worse at holding onto Republicans than Joe Biden did at holding onto Democrats.
The numbers are parsed in a number of different ways, but the most instructive is probably this: Republican candidates won 25 of the 49 congressional districts in those five states, and Trump lagged the GOP nominee in 20 of the 25 (80%), while Democratic candidates won 24 of the 49, and Biden lagged the Democratic nominee in just 8 of the 24 (33%). If the President had equaled the vote tally of his party's congressional candidates, he would have won reelection. But he didn't, and so he didn't. It's as simple as that."
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