OT: Nueces- US and World Markets

[westx]

@2300 Nueces , what is your general sense on where we are and where we are going? Is this a short term hiccup due to supply chain disruption (covid) and other factors or the beginning of something longer? Main Street is still strong that I know of.

 

[clob94]

Media hype. You're way more likely to die of actual flu than this. Over reaction. We don't live in an objective world anymore. We live in a world of "feelz".

 

[DHHorn]

Media hype. You're way more likely to die of actual flu than this. Over reaction. We don't live in an objective world anymore. We live in a world of "feelz".

I get it, but it's not the media that is banning travel and quarantining cities. If it starts to spread here it will disrupt things, not good for the economy if everyone locks themselves in their houses.

 

[2300 Nueces]

@2300 Nueces , what is your general sense on where we are and where we are going? Is this a short term hiccup due to supply chain disruption (covid) and other factors or the beginning of something longer? Main Street is still strong that I know of.

Hold at this point. Time to sell will be in 2024ish. I'll let you know if I see a reason to sell. We likely have to make a bottom at this point. This is a good time to buy long term if you have extra savings. The bottom is not in yet though.

 

[2300 Nueces]

Hold at this point. Time to sell will be in 2024ish. I'll let you know if I see a reason to sell. We likely have to make a bottom at this point. This is a good time to buy long term if you have extra savings. The bottom is not in yet though.

The virus will spread but there isn't much we can do outside not picking our noses.

 

[diadevic]

Whoever said dollar cost average on the way down is nuts - I bought XOM at 75, and have been buying on every $4 drop. About to buy myself into bankruptcy. This hurts!!! But, hey, my yield is now over 7%!

 

[KChorn11]

I’m not sure it’s all panic and hype. I mean this is going to have real impact on companies bottom lines. With limited flights in and out of China that’s going to impact airlines profits for the 1st qrt. Companies like apple’s production will probably be down due to the severity of the outbreak in China, and we don’t really know the real impact it will have here yet.

So I don’t think the markets are reacting necessarily to panic and hype, but rather tangible things that are or likely will be impacted by this. With that said things will rebound and be ok. We were probably due for a down turn anyway although not all in 3-4 days

 

[2300 Nueces]

These are probably the cause of the correction.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learni...ed_pulling_back_from_repos_at_the_wrong_time/

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm17CE_0.jpg?itok=EOKVxaXu

The fed pulling back from repos and decreased earning expectations. The virus was the catalyst. Typical retail massacre. The central bankers are globalists and hate nationalistic movements, so it is clear why they are trying to pull the punch bowl away. They have one problem. If there was one guy that they hate more than Trump, it's Sanders.

 

[KChorn11]

These are probably the cause of the correction.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learni...ed_pulling_back_from_repos_at_the_wrong_time/

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm17CE_0.jpg?itok=EOKVxaXu

The fed pulling back from repos and decreased earning expectations. The virus was the catalyst. Typical retail massacre. The central bankers are globalists and hate nationalistic movements, so it is clear why they are trying to pull the punch bowl away. They have one problem. If there was one guy that they hate more than Trump, it's Sanders.

Yeah although Trump and republicans wouldn’t want to admit this Sanders and Trump are similar in a lot of ways. They go about it much differently but their messages are similar in many ways.

 

[2300 Nueces]

I would place a stop at the 2018 low or close my position if we get a close below that. I'm pretty sure the FED is going to come out with guns blazing next week. Matter of fact, all central banks are going to be cutting loose next week. The virus is going to spread. If we can keep people alive, this will calm down.

 

[KChorn11]

I would place a stop at the 2018 low or close my position if we get a close below that. I'm pretty sure the FED is going to come out with guns blazing next week. Matter of fact, all central banks are going to be cutting loose next week. The virus is going to spread. If we can keep people alive, this will calm down.

Problem is hard to keep people alive when there is no vaccine/treatment. You are kind of at the mercy of luck. We may luck out because we have better doctors and healthcare staff than some of these other places.

 

[StrangerHorn]

Fools and their money! All you backyard stockbrokers!...LOL!

 

[Son of Wasatch]

Fools and their money! All you backyard stockbrokers!...LOL!

 

[Belldozer1]

 

[2300 Nueces]

.5% cut. Boom.

 

[diadevic]

.5% cut. Boom.

So the market is now down 500+. Were the experts expecting more? Is this a sign of panic by the fed? Market rises 1000+ yesterday, in part, because of expectation of fed intervention. We get what we want and it still goes down? To quote this board - I has confused.

 

[2300 Nueces]

Markets are not rational. Ya, the fed is admitting the econ is weakening. They had a boatload of bonds to sell from the 09 downturn so they are trying to offload... they are being forced to ease. They don't want to. Hopefully the market builds a bottom. It's a game of skinning the people who rush to one side of the boat.

Short term trading is a long term loser. Short term back tested systems work but they have drawdowns as well. They also require triggers for when to trade and turn off.

 

[LonghornMM]

I'm standing pat on my mutual fund investments rather than sell in panic mode and get into bonds. The market was due for a correction, and from what I've read this corona virus scare is more pandemonium than a real crisis here in the U.S.

 

[speedstrength]

Markets don't like uncertainty. I believe it is a sign of panic by the fed or at least that's how it is being received. Mixed messaging coming out of various entities isn't helping. We know in the short term there will be supply disruptions due to the quarantine in Asia. I have read Mid March to Mid April before factories reach full production again. Lots of people canceling travel plans and large events. Its going to sting China because of the hit to the manufacturing and its going to sting the US due to decreases in consumer spending.

Once the CDC gets their testing program up and running you are going to see a surge of cases in the US which will lead to more volatility in the markets because there is still a lot about the virus we don't know. What is fairly certain is that it will affect the US economy in the short term. If its like the flu then hundreds of thousands of people are going to get the virus. It will affect our productivity and spending habits. Since there won't be a vaccine ready for 12-18 months expect to see clusters of infections.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is an outbreak in San Antonio. I was at North Star Mall with the wife (birthday shopping and dinner at Cheesecake factory) around the time the Corona Virus patient was there. The place was packed. We didn't go to any of the stores that person went to but I imagine there were plenty of opportunities for transmission of the virus. San Antonio is good about freaking out. We created a gas shortage after Harvey because people thought there was going to be a shortage. We had dumb assess filling up trash cans with gas. There were tons of people who ended up with gas in containers with no way of despising said gas into a vehicle. Then there was the Swine Flu in 2009. It wasn't anymore deadly than the normal Flu but people freaked out. We shut down schools, the state track meet was pushed back a week or 2. People made a run on grocery stores. Its going to happen again. People are going to get sick, people are going to get hospitalized, a small amount of people are going to die. Its going to be like everything else. An over reaction followed by and under reaction.

 

[Son of Wasatch]

There are other investment strategies outside the market that can give you good to excellent returns. Once you are over 50 you need to diversify and start moving assets into safer strategies. I personally advocate using Annuities as you can get them in a variety of terms that fit your situation. Yes, they have their drawbacks as with any investment, but as a investment tool they can be a good strategy against a falling market. Real Estate is always a good place to put money, no matter what, everyone needs a place to live. If you fear losing your shirt, there are even many mutual funds that are heavily leveraged in REITs and will do very well in a falling market.

I'm just one guy, but I don't see this as being nothing more than a hickup and we will be back in cheese and wine. The real fall is still yet to come.

 

[Belldozer1]

There are other investment strategies outside the market that can give you good to excellent returns. Once you are over 50 you need to diversify and start moving assets into safer strategies. I personally advocate using Annuities as you can get them in a variety of terms that fit your situation. Yes, they have their drawbacks as with any investment, but as a investment tool they can be a good strategy against a falling market. Real Estate is always a good place to put money, no matter what, everyone needs a place to live. If you fear losing your shirt, there are even many mutual funds that are heavily leveraged in REITs and will do very well in a falling market.

I'm just one guy, but I don't see this as being nothing more than a hickup and we will be back in cheese and wine. The real fall is still yet to come.

Damn right about real estate. Property out by my trailer just went for $300,000 for 6 acres.

 

[clob94]

Remember when the Africanized killer bees were going to kill us all?

 

[2300 Nueces]

Damn right about real estate. Property out by my trailer just went for $300,000 for 6 acres.

Did it have a meth lab with a warranty?

 

[hillcountryhorn63697005]

Fools and their money! All you backyard stockbrokers!...LOL!

I was at Wally World today. My checker outter lady told me how she is nervous about people using their reusable bags and some are really nasty (dried blood, smelly). On top of that, customers coming up coughing. sneezing, etc. I felt sorry for this 70+ little lady....

 

[Son of Wasatch]

Remember when the Africanized killer bees were going to kill us all?

The more I've learned about this virus, the more I've come to realize that it's not the virus it's the over reaction of everyone that is going to cause all our issues.

 

[DHHorn]

The more I've learned about this virus, the more I've come to realize that it's not the virus it's the over reaction of everyone that is going to cause all our issues.

Sure there is some overreaction but some of it is warranted. When was the last time the flu wiped out a nursing home? I hate to say it, but this thing is worse than the flu. Hopefully it doesn't get as widespread due to the awareness that everyone is giving it. I know the number of times I wash my hands a day has increased and I'm doing my best not to touch my face. That's about all you can do for now.

 

[speedstrength]

Sure there is some overreaction but some of it is warranted. When was the last time the flu wiped out a nursing home? I hate to say it, but this thing is worse than the flu. Hopefully it doesn't get as widespread due to the awareness that everyone is giving it. I know the number of times I wash my hands a day has increased and I'm doing my best not to touch my face. That's about all you can do for now.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1587976
An outbreak of influenza A (H3N2) in a well immunized nursing home population.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5596516/
Influenza in long‐term care facilities

 

[UTGrad87]

A year from now absolutely no one will remember what the hell COVID19 was. This is all a bunch of fear mongering to push an agenda.

 

[DHHorn]

A year from now absolutely no one will remember what the hell COVID19 was. This is all a bunch of fear mongering to push an agenda.

Sure there is in the US, but what agenda does China, SK , Italy , etc.. have? Are you saying there is a global conspiracy to prevent Trump from getting elected? Maybe there is, but I personally would have chose a route that doesn't tank the world economy. I get that it is being overblown but governments around the world also believe that it is pretty serious given their actions.

You will know that there is a real threat when politicians from across the isle start working together for a solution. Until that happens and they keep doing their normal blame games I think all is well. If they all of a sudden get quiet and give the same message, then you know they think it is a large threat.

 

[speedstrength]

This is absolutely not fear mongering. There is no vaccine so lots of people are going to get sick. Even if there was a vaccine lots of people would get sick. In some cases schools, business and large events may need closed down for a while to prevent the spread of the virus. This means people will lose out on paychecks and won't be spending. Consumer spending is what makes the US economy grow. Demand for oil is low especially in China. Since we are now a major producer of oil this will hurt the US economy. Lots of over leveraged oil companies in the Permian Basin can't function at 45 dollars a barrel. We aren't going to work though this supply until at least April so expect some tough times in West Texas for the next few months. Its not like a massive ebola outbreak but its a lot more serious than a bunch of people getting a cold.

 

[Belldozer1]

This is absolutely not fear mongering. There is no vaccine so lots of people are going to get sick. Even if there was a vaccine lots of people would get sick. In some cases schools, business and large events may need closed down for a while to prevent the spread of the virus. This means people will lose out on paychecks and won't be spending. Consumer spending is what makes the US economy grow. Demand for oil is low especially in China. Since we are now a major producer of oil this will hurt the US economy. Lots of over leveraged oil companies in the Permian Basin can't function at 45 dollars a barrel. We aren't going to work though this supply until at least April so expect some tough times in West Texas for the next few months. Its not like a massive ebola outbreak but its a lot more serious than a bunch of people getting a cold.

Meanwhile in the EagleFord some of us are going and blowing just like we did at $30 oil.

 

[speedstrength]

Meanwhile in the EagleFord some of us are going and blowing just like we did at $30 oil.

Some of the small and independent companies weren't able to get access to financing through banks and had to go to other more expensive for of raising capital. I'm sure there are plenty of people profitable a 45 but there are also some smaller operators that took on a ton of debt and have negative Debt to Equity Ratios who cant survive at oil under $50.

 

[Belldozer1]

Some of the small and independent companies weren't able to get access to financing through banks and had to go to other more expensive for of raising capital. I'm sure there are plenty of people profitable a 45 but there are also some smaller operators that took on a ton of debt and have negative Debt to Equity Ratios who cant survive at oil under $50.

And to those operators struggling we’re waiting with open arms to absorb their geologically desirable acreage positions.

 

[diadevic]

And to those operators struggling we’re waiting with open arms to absorb their geologically desirable acreage positions.

To those of you youngsters out there - listen to Bell and learn. He frugally purchased a mobile home instead of a McMansion, and now he’s got the capital to prosper in the downturn!

 

[Belldozer1]

To those of you youngsters out there - listen to Bell and learn. He frugally purchased a mobile home instead of a McMansion, and now he’s got the capital to prosper in the downturn!

You are correct on all counts