Energy sector bankruptcies are starting to approach 2016 levels when the Saudis flooded the market so the opportunity is there. The questions is acquisition cost. Banks have cut way back on lending for for energy projects and energy stocks are at their lowest level compared to the S and P 500 since the 1940s. So the access to cheap debt isn't what it once was. Then there is the issue of demand destruction. People are cancelling vacations and business are cancelling travel. Factories are shutting down or aren't able to run at full capacity since they can't find enough workers. That could drive oil lower which means some projects will be scaled back or postponed. The economy is going to take a hit. The question is how big. Full blown recession? That depends on what happens in China and how that affects supply chains.
OT: Nueces- US and World Markets
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Energy sector bankruptcies are starting to approach 2016 levels when the Saudis flooded the market so the opportunity is there. The questions is acquisition cost. Banks have cut way back on lending for for energy projects and energy stocks are at their lowest level compared to the S and P 500 since the 1940s. So the access to cheap debt isn't what it once was. Then there is the issue of demand destruction. People are cancelling vacations and business are cancelling travel. Factories are shutting down or aren't able to run at full capacity since they can't find enough workers. That could drive oil lower which means some projects will be scaled back or postponed. The economy is going to take a hit. The question is how big. Full blown recession? That depends on what happens in China and how that affects supply chains.
My lack of in depth knowledge of markets definitely limits my understanding, but, it seems that Wall Street will be the only ones making money on the volatility. Joe Investors like many of us have our retirement money in the market and hold for the long term. In general, I am in favor of acting proactively and avoiding problems WHEN they can be avoided. However, from the cheap seats view, the rate cut didn't do anything except get us back to where we were on are way down. Wouldn't it make sense for the market to find its bottom on its own and then act? Yes, we will all lose money, but the market is free of manipulation and better priced. In addition, Wall Street doesn't make tons of money off of their inside knowledge as we end up where we will end up anyway. I know the answer is probably "well, it's complicated", but I thought I would ask.
The Fed rate is a medium to long term mechanism but signals the short term mkt condition. Repos are for immediate cash injections to the banks and hedge funds when over night rates get out of hand. The cut was to provide confidence to speculators that the fed supports a medium to long term rise in mkt prices. They also picked up the repos as well which helps to stabalize overnight and short term rates. Waiting means margin calls and a cascade lower in prices. Our whole system is built on WAY TOO MUCH LEVERAGE. If the Fed allows defaults to get out of hand, then the whole house of cards comes down.
Not to worry, all of this debt will be cast onto the backs of savers through inflation and medium to high earners through taxation. Think your pension or 401k is safe? HA HA HA, they will get at those as well. Nothing is safe, I try to minimize interest payments and taxes while taking enough business risk to outpace inflation. Nothing is ever smooth, it's a marathon.
I don't have any idea what the agenda is other than to gain power & control . . . and $$$. I roll my eyes at these Chicken Little folks that run around every 2 years telling me a virus is gonna kill me. If thats true then let me die already. I'm sick of playing this stupid virus game.
Volatility is a great time to be in the options market. you can play both sides and make money on the ups and downs.
The advisor who let you keep your retirement money 100% in the market should lose his license and you should sue him.
Here is a general rule of thumb. At age 50, you need to start moving your money out of the risk. At 50 you move 50% out of risk and into safer less volatile investments. T bills, annuties, other government bonds (not high yield). Real Estate is a good investment. Just don't keep all your eggs in one basket. Every year after 50 you move another 1% out of the market. By age 65, you should only have about 35% of your nest egg in the market. I personally like annuities as an investment tool myself.
I can say all this now, because I gave up my 7 and 66 license. That's right, F'you FINRA.
Margin calls. Forced liquidations. It's a mess. Have a plan and stick to it. The banks are becoming a real problem. The lending markets have frozen. Thanks to the incompetent Federal Reserve "Bank".
Novel 2019 Coronavirus is extremely serious. Any statement to the contrary is untrue and hazardous to anyone who believes that.
Covid-19 is about 23-33 times as deadly as influenza.
This year, in the USA, about 1 out of 1667 influenza victims have died. For Covid-19, it's closer to 1 out of 70, already, with more deaths on the way. If you include cases in China, 1 out of 30!
While Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS, Smallpox, or certainly the various strains of Ebola, its infection rate dwarfs those others. Particularly the latest "L" strain of Covid-19. So it's going to be far more common.
This is WAY too early to compare Covid-19 and influenza's infection rate. We don't know which will become more common. We do know, however, that reinfection is possible. [Edit: by this, I am citing research that says that you can catch Covid-19, get well, and then catch it again.]
Have individuals overreacted? Of course. You don't need to drive the price of TP through the roof, or have fights over TP.
There have also been dangerous under-reactions and mistruths. We've been told the following lies and unsupported claims, some of which are dangerous:
- It's just a common cold. (False)
- "This is a flu." (Nope.)
- "This is like a flu."
- It's nothing compared to the seasonal flu, which is far worse
- The flu's death rate is much worse than 0.1% (false): "And the flu is higher than that. The flu is much higher than that."
- 100,000 died from the flu in 1990: "I think we went as high as 100,000 people died in 1990, if you can believe that." (False. The flu caused 26,582 deaths that year.)
- "It is very much under control in the USA" (False)
- "We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight."
- The number of cases in the USA is going down: "I don't think it's going to come to that, especially with the fact that we're going down, not up. We're going very substantially down, not up."
- "We have very low numbers compared to major countries throughout the world. Our numbers are lower than just about anybody."
- It was created by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
- It's a bioweapon
- It's being weaponized to harm our president
- The homeless are spreading it
- The other political party is politicizing coronavirus.
- (This claim by itself would be politicizing it.)
- (Notice how coronavirus is used to demonize the homeless, immigration policy, and hero-worship a certain politician.)
- Coronavirus dies in warm weather: "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away."
- It's a hoax by a certain political party
- It's going to miraculously go away on its own:
- "It's going to disappear. One day -- it's like a miracle -- it will disappear. And from our shores, we -- you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We'll see what happens. Nobody really knows. The fact is, the greatest experts -- I've spoken to them all. Nobody really knows."
- "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."
- A certain political party's immigration policies are to blame here, for the USA getting the coronavirus.
- Testing for Covid-19 is well under way in the USA (false):
- "In terms of testing kits, we've already tested over 3,600 people for the virus." (the real number was 500 patients)
- "There is no testing kit shortage, nor has there ever been."
- "Anybody that wants a test can get a test. That's what the bottom line is."
- No one knows how many deaths are due to the seasonal flu (false). "You know, three, four weeks ago, I said, 'Well, how many people die a year from the flu?' And, in this country, I think last year was 36- or 37,000 people. And I'm saying, 'Wow, nobody knew that information.' So when you lose 27,000 people a year, nobody knew that. I didn't know that."
- Covid-19 vaccines are coming soon: "We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies and they're going to have vaccines, I think relatively soon. And they're going to have something that makes you better and that's going to actually take place, we think, even sooner." The experts say that it'll take 1-1.5 years to create a workable vaccine. (I wouldn't expect it to work any more often than a flu vaccine does.)
- A certain prior president created a regulation that made it harder to test for the coronavirus, but thankfully another president fixed that.
- "The ____ administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we're doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion. That was a decision we disagreed with."
- "They made some decisions which were not good decisions...We undid some of the regulations that were made that made it very difficult, but I'm not blaming anybody."
We should not panic, but the bigger issue is to believe lies being told about the issue, and to fail to learn about the virus, and fact-check what we're reading & hearing.
Sources:
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I appreciate your objective post.
I find it very hard to believe any analysis based on data on coronavirus for multiple reasons
1. The data is inaccurate across the globe
2. Any data from China cannot be trusted.
3. Data in the US cannot be trusted because of an utter lack of testing. This possibly means that the fatality rate is lower, but the number of people infected is much higher
4. Testing policies and reporting varies very highly from region to region ( let alone country to country)
5. Lack of transparency complemented by an utter lack of trust in the leadership across the globe....if you cannot trust the clowns who are the gatekeepers for the data, how can you trust the data.
To me, even worse than the coronavirus is point 5. above. The lack of leadership is what is making things like the COVID-19 situation worse. It is not the virus.
Sorry, I do not have any "civilized" solution to that problem.
If you appreciate statistical analysis and predictive modeling based on the information that we DO have, this is a wonderful/scary read.
It compares all the data collected from reliable and unreliable sources and shows how mitigation efforts have real effects.
Nothing like a good panic to heard the sheep (cry wolf) for a Spring shearing. Lazy shepherds used to hate having to chase down all the individual sheep so nothing like a good wolf call to get them all in the pen. This applies to bankers as well.
Good points.
As for my objectivity, I know that if I critique a certain person, or even quote a lie of his, then ~30% of America and ~48% of Texas will turn their brains off. They seem to believe everything he says, fact check nothing, and completely ignore any source of information that he wants them to. It's the perfect storm, basically. They're unable to think critically about this person, his actions or statements.
This is too serious for banking left or banking right.
When there's a consensus among scientists, we'd do well to listen carefully, and set aside myths and conjecture.
Are we talking markets in this thread or more "twump bad" politics. Tell us, what's the market going to do?
Hint: limit up. It looks like the hedge funds were busy beavers last night.
If we get an outside period bar today, the snowflakes will soon be crying for price controls on toilet paper.
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Turns out the virus does not like warm weather. Just read a briefing by the WHO.
I haven't seen the link but let me guess... At a certain temperature, humidity, and length of expose the virus will die. The warmer and more humid the faster. Just like everyone has speculated.
It's still a lie. He's claiming to know things that he doesn't know. He's spreading misinformation about a health crisis, a pandemic. That 5% of his guesses turn out to be true... you're going to be proud of that?!
This is a person who won't be ashamed of the worst, most vile, dangerous behavior. He's managed to coerce Senators who despised him into supporting him. They should have had the will to continue to oppose him. Their initial reasons for doing so -- his utter lack of character and amoral philosophy, his psychopathy and sociopathy -- continue to be true.
The definition of "psychopath" per American Heritage (and if you think they changed their definition since 2015, to target the president of the USA, just check out other dictionaries):
n.
A person with a personality disorder indicated by a pattern of lying, cunning, manipulating, glibness, exploiting, heedlessness, arrogance, delusions of grandeur, sexual promiscuity, low self-control, disregard for morality, lack of acceptance of responsibility, callousness, and lack of empathy and remorse. Such an individual may be especially prone to violent and criminal offenses.
n.
A person with a personality disorder indicated by a pattern of lying, cunning, manipulating, glibness, exploiting, heedlessness, arrogance, delusions of grandeur, sexual promiscuity, low self-control, disregard for morality, lack of acceptance of responsibility, callousness, and lack of empathy and remorse. Such an individual may be especially prone to violent and criminal offenses.
I think you just described 99% of politicians.
HornsRuleU, so the Clinton's, Obama's, Biden's, Sanders', Pelosi's, Schumer's, Schiff's, Omar's, Tliab's, AOC's, and Pressley's are good, wholesome, pro-American folks that the U.S. needs? Gimme a break! Can you imagine how bad off we'd be if Hillary had won the election? Look how unethical, hateful, spiteful, childish and classless these people have acted over a man who duly won the presidency, and they seem to hate him putting America first. They still cannot accept the results of the election and have thrown a tantrum for three years now. It's going to really melt all of the snowflakes when Trump is re-elected, lol.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its...s.html?&qsearchterm=who covid warm false hope
I see no briefing by the WHO that confirms your statement.
I almost capitulated today and gave up. I didn't, and now I'm $$$ today. Still got a loooooooong way to go, but at least for one day there is green on my screen. Had almost forgotten what that was like.
I'm an independent. I don't need to defend anyone. But we need someone without a psychosis or three in the top spot.
You're kidding yourself if you think he puts America first. But he did destroy some valuable relationships with allies.
Perhaps those people you despise have some wisdom or insight that you lack, MM, that warned them about this man? All those Senators of his own party (!) warned us in very strong terms. Many liberals, independents and true conservatives are upset for the same reasons that all those GOP Senators warned us about! And the election was influenced by Russia, AND he's done things that are classless, un-presidential, immoral and lawless and somehow the system is letting him get away with it. The history books in 30+ years will take the correct tone, and if we're still alive, we'll see who was exaggerating, MM.
When he was lying and delaying on Coronavirus -- and I notice you're changing the subject when faced with all his lies about Covid-19 -- his supporters just ignore it. When he finally starts taking it serious, all we hear from supporters is how impressed they are. The lying and delaying cost MANY American lives. One of the lies was about when Covid-19 started. It started longer ago than he's admitting.
He's a pretender. He pretends facts aren't real. He pretends that everything is OK when it isn't. He pretends that the prior presidents messed up, and he's finally fixing things. He pretends that he's able to handle the office of presidency. But look at him with his arms folded in a meeting. He was never designed for this.
This one takes a prize, though for:
- lying (%-age wise)
- heedlessness
- arrogance
- delusions of grandeur
- sexual promiscuity
- low self-control
- disregard for morality
- lack of acceptance of responsibility (like in his press conference today)
- callousness
- lack of empathy and remorse
- prone to criminal offenses
Some aren't promiscuous.
Some have strong morals, and it's what motivates them.
Many are able to accept responsibility when they screw up.
Many have empathy, or at least are able to fake it.
Few have the number of criminal charges and lawsuits against them.
This guy takes the cake. He's the poster boy for psychopathy. And yet I have fellow evangelicals (I'm one) completely ignoring all his offenses and admiring him for things he's completely faking, considering for 70 years prior he never cared about those aspects or ever exhibited them, and it's pretty clear that since he started running for office he's been horribly faking it.
America needs to flush this one. And bad.
It doesn't mean that we need to ignore flaws in the other side. Some say a broken toaster would be preferable.
But this one is horrible, and he needs to go. True conservatives have got that right, at least.
It doesn't mean that we need to ignore flaws in the other side. Some say a broken toaster would be preferable.
But this one is horrible, and he needs to go. True conservatives have got that right, at least.
Sure, Trump has his shortcomings but Obama was absolutely filthy. Trump would have never been elected unless we first had an OBAMA.
https://outline.com/Eb8GrV
This doesn't even address the weaponization of the FBI, CIA, and DOJ. Obama would be in jail if he wasn't first a president.
https://outline.com/Eb8GrV
This doesn't even address the weaponization of the FBI, CIA, and DOJ. Obama would be in jail if he wasn't first a president.
HRU, gimme a break. You're an "independent"? Riiight. You're trashing a damn good president with baseless claims. He puts Obama to shame. We're lucky to have a president like Trump. Is he perfect and without flaw?. No. Is he unnecessarily crass sometimes? Yes, he is, but I'll take him 1000x over Hillary, who would have been a disaster for America. Unfortunately, there are no competent Democrat candidates opposing Trump in the upcoming election.
You're a liberal. Just own up to it. Whether you like it or not, Trump is going to win again in a landslide. Common sense will prevail, and America will benefit from four more years of him doing what is in America's best interest. You talk about "lack of wisdom and insight". Take a look in the mirror, dude. Stop watching the liberal news/media, reading liberal rags, don't buy into the liberal agenda nonsense that universities try to push onto people, and try using some common sense and thinking rationally.
I've let this go longer than I should have, as an exception, based on what is going on with the corona virus. Back to business as usual. No more political threads. Let's agree to disagree. People are on one side or another and we have our thoughts and convictions, and we're not going to change who we support, or what we believe in.
Hook'em!
You're trashing a damn good president with baseless claims. He puts Obama to shame. We're lucky to have a president like Trump. Is he perfect and without flaw?. No. Is he unnecessarily crass sometimes? Yes, he is, but I'll take him 1000x over Hillary, who would have been a disaster for America. Unfortunately, there are no competent Democrat candidates opposing Trump in the upcoming election.You're a liberal. Just own up to it. Whether you like it or not, Trump is going to win again in a landslide. Common sense will prevail, and America will benefit from four more years of him doing what is in America's best interest. You talk about "lack of wisdom and insight". Take a look in the mirror, dude. Stop watching the liberal news/media, reading liberal rags, don't buy into the liberal agenda nonsense that universities try to push onto people, and try using some common sense and thinking rationally.
I've let this go longer than I should have, as an exception, based on what is going on with the corona virus. Back to business as usual. No more political threads. Let's agree to disagree. People are on one side or another and we have our thoughts and convictions, and we're not going to change who we support, or what we believe in.
Hook'em!
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