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THE END IS NEAR!
The last conference series of the 2023 season is upon us. As I mentioned earlier this week, a Big 12 Champion will be crowned this weekend, unfortunately, it will likely be the visiting West Virginia Mountaineers who need just one win to lock up the conference title. For the Longhorns, the goal is simple, win the series at a minimum and position itself in the conversation for a Regional Host or at worst, one of the high 2 seeds.
The latest projections have the Horns as the 2 seed in the Fayett-nam Regional along with #2 overall seed Arkansas, Oral Roberts and Little Rock. Arkansas is an interesting team in that they have suffered quite a few injury issues this season, the latest being Peyton Stovall. Despite these injuries Arkansas has been very very good, which includes a 3-2 win over the Horns in the opening game of the season.
Here are the links for the latest episode of Around the Horns
Check out the latest episode
YOUTUBE
SPOTIFY
Notes on the Horns:
- Dylan Campbell enters the series with a 30 game hitting streak, which is tied for 2nd all-time in the Big 12 conference
- Texas ranks 4th in the Big 12 in Batting Average
- Texas ranks 1st in the Big 12 in ERA
- Texas ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in Fielding
- Peyton Powell ranks 7th in the Big 12 in Batting Average, ahead of Gavin Kash
- Texas has 6 of the Top 25 hitters in the Big 12 ranked by Batting Average....the most of any Big 12 team in the Top 25 hitters in the Big 12
Matchup:
Date: May 18-20
Time: Thursday 630pm; Friday 630pm; Saturday 230pm
Where: Disch-Falk Field
TV: LHN
Radio: 104.9 FM The Horn/1260 AM
Series History:
- West Virginia holds a series lead of 5-4 all time (first meeting in 2013)
- Texas holds a 3-2 series record at Disch-Falk Field (8-7 record during those 5 series)
- West Virginia holds a 3-1 series record in Morgantown
- Texas and West Virginia split the two games they have played in the Big 12 Tourney (2021)
- Texas last played West Virginia at Disch-Falk back in 2021 on the final conference series of the season, winning the series finale in 8 innings by a score of 12-2, securing the Horns the Big 12 Title
Record:
Texas (35-18, 12-9 Big 12)
West Virginia (39-13, 15-6 Big 12)
RPI
Texas - 30
WVU - 16
SOS
Texas - 29
WVU - 64
Projected Pitching Matchups:
- THU- LHP Lucas Gordon (5-1, 2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) v. LHP Carson Estridge (3-0, 3.75 ERA
- FRI- RHP Lebarron Johnson Jr (6-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) v. RHP Blaine Traxel (7-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
- Traxel is a WORKHORSE for WVU, having thrown over 105 pitches 8 times this season
- Traxel has thrown 5 complete games this season and has gone 8 IP twice
- Traxel is side arm slot that can be hard to see, but has given up a decent number of runs this season
- SAT- RHP Tanner Witt (1-1, 13.50 ERA, 2.14 WHIP) v. WVU TBD
- RHP Travis Sthele (3-4, 5.23 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) is expected to bulk after Witt
Of note, LHP Ben Hampton (5-2, 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) has been the normal starter for WVU in nearly all of the Friday nights. Not sure why they are not going to him, but he could potentially go Saturday or earlier if needed.
- Hampton is a guy reliable lefty that averages 6-7 IP and 2-4 ER
- Hampton went just 3.1 IP last season giving up 7 H and 4 R, while striking out 6
Top Relievers:
- RHP Carlson Reed (2-0, 1.13 ERA, 21 apps)
- Reed has some absolutely devastating stuff on the mound with a mid 90s FB and wipeout slider
- Reed got touched up by Texas last season giving up 5 H and 5 R in just 1.2 IP
- RHP David Hagaman (1-1, 2.54 ERA, 19 apps)
- LHP Maxx Yehl (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 14 apps)
- RHP Noah Short (4-0, 4.35 ERA, 20 apps)
- RHP Carson Estridge (3-0, 3.75 ERA, 10 apps)
- RHP Gavin Van Kempen (3-0, 4.32 ERA, 10 apps)
Offensive Leaders:
- Soph 2B JJ Wetherholt (.466 BA, 1.359 OPS, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs, .530 OB, 35-41 SB)
- Leads the NCAA in BA
- Tevin Tucker (.331 BA, .909 OPS, .477 OB, 18-21 SB)
- Landon Wallace (.329 BA, 1.059 OPS, 9 HR, .472 OB, 16-18 SB)
- Braden Barry (.304 BA, .920 OPS, 7 HR, 21-23 SB)
- Caleb McNeely (.299 BA, .999 OPS, 12 HR, 13-16 SB)
West Virginia Odds & Ends:
- West Virginia has never finished higher than 4th in Big 12 play (since joining in 2013)
- West Virginia has 4 seasons with a winning conference record, 4 with a losing conference record and 1 with a .500 record
Look at the Numbers:
Batting Average:
Texas - .299
WVU - .304
OPS:
Texas - .894
WVU - .933
OB%
Texas - .393
WVU - .423
Slugging%:
Texas - .501
WVU - .510
Home Runs:
Texas - 74
WVU - 72
Walks:
Texas - 258
WVU - 293
Stolen Bases
Texas - 61-80
WVU - 118-139
ERA:
Texas - 4.12
WVU - 4.13
WHIP:
Texas - 1.39
WVU - 1.33
Fielding:
Texas - .979
WVU - .969
Errors:
Texas - 41
WVU - 61
Predictions:
- @ZachattheDisch (1-2): I think that WVU has a more complete pitching staff and is led by an offensive monster in JJ Wetherholt, plus they have only lost 2 series all season long.
- @AaronLittleOB (1-2): Really close call. This is a really well rounded WVU team with a bullpen edge. I’ll say 1-2 in three close games.
Here is how our series predictions have gone this season. We have both been pretty good about knowing the series outcome, even if we haven't been great about guessing the exact series record.
Correctly guessing the series record:
- @ZachattheDisch (5-8)
- @AaronLittleOB (5-8)
Correctly guessing the series outcome (W/L):
- @ZachattheDisch (9-4)
- @AaronLittleOB (10-3)
Big 12 Series this weekend:
- Texas v. West Virginia
- Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
- TCU at Kansas State
- Kansas at Texas Tech
- Baylor v. CSU Bakersfield
Big 12 RPI Standings (as of 5/17):
- West Virginia #16
- Oklahoma State #22
- Texas #30
- Oklahoma #35
- Texas Tech #41
- TCU #47
- Kansas State #51
- Kansas #115
- Baylor #159
Look around the current Big 12 Standings:
| TEAM | BIG 12 RECORD | PCT. | HOME | AWAY | STREAK | OVERALL RECORD | PCT. | HOME | AWAY | NEUTRAL | STREAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 15-6 | .714 | 8-4 | 7-2 | W2 | 39-13 | .750 | 18-6 | 17-7 | 4-0 | W2 |
| Oklahoma State | 13-8 | .619 | 8-4 | 5-4 | W2 | 35-15 | .700 | 25-7 | 9-6 | 1-2 | W2 |
| Texas | 12-9 | .571 | 5-4 | 7-5 | W2 | 35-18 | .660 | 25-8 | 10-7 | 0-3 | W2 |
| Kansas State | 12-9 | .571 | 6-3 | 6-6 | L2 | 32-20 | .615 | 18-6 | 14-11 | 0-3 | L2 |
| TCU | 11-10 | .524 | 9-3 | 2-7 | W4 | 31-21 | .596 | 21-11 | 6-8 | 4-2 | W6 |
| Texas Tech | 10-11 | .476 | 6-3 | 4-8 | L2 | 35-18 | .660 | 28-6 | 6-10 | 1-2 | L2 |
| Oklahoma | 10-11 | .476 | 5-4 | 5-7 | L1 | 29-22 | .569 | 14-10 | 13-10 | 2-2 | W3 |
| Kansas | 7-14 | .333 | 4-8 | 3-6 | L2 | 23-28 | .451 | 10-8 | 7-15 | 6-5 | L1 |
| Baylor | 6-18 | .250 | 5-7 | 1-11 | L6 | 17-35 | .327 | 14-19 | 3-16 | 0-0 | W1 |
College Baseball series to watch:
- 2 Arky v. 12 Vandy
- 4 Florida v. 19 Kentucky
- 13 South Carolina v. 18 Tennessee
- 11 Miami v. 16 Duke
Notes from Media Availability:
- Coach David Pierce
- "Big weekend coming up, weather is gonna be great, crowd is gonna be great. Opponent is gonna be good. Got two really good teams, I feel like, going at each other with a lot at stake. You know it is hard to sweep in the Big 12, but you can't sweep unless you win game one. So we have to work really hard to win game one and that's all we can be concerned about. Then let the series play up from there. It's not just about the league share, it's also just about so many implications of RPI positioning and the tournament. Just finishing strong, but really just playing really good baseball. If we can do that, that's all I expect from the team. I don't want them to go in worrying about what they have to do. We haven't done that all year, we need to go in there and play with a little bit of an edge. Don't go out and drop their guard. Understand that if they do, things like Friday will happen. That was the best I've ever seen our team after a devastating loss where they actually from one guy to the last guy, they were pissed and that's what they needed. And I really loved the response from them coming out of that hour and a half later in the doubleheader and then finishing it off. So hopefully we build off that."
- On how Coach Pierce feels with where they are
- "I mean, some good, some bad. I feel like we've been a little inconsistent, but at the same time, I've seen a lot of improvement from individuals. And so we just got to keep improving. I'm not really looking back right now because I think we just have so much room to get better, I really do and if we put all three phases together consistently, I think we could be a really good team, but we have to do that.
- How do you feel about lineup, pitching and bullpen
- Lineup wise, we're in pretty good shape, especially one to six. Then there's some options still with some speed guys versus a guy like Jayden Duplantier who can come off the bench and do some things for us. Flores and Mitch will both probably play at [Shortstop], kind of some matchup stuff. Any then you look at the bullpen, the small adjustments. I noticed Minchey really did a great job getting on top of his changeup, which makes a huge difference in that pitch and his confidence. Charlie Hurley made a nice adjustment on his slider yesterday. You see Zane Morehouse in a lower slot from an adjustment this week, so I wouldn't say we have our go to guys in the bullpen right now. I feel pretty confident about going Lucas on Thursday and LBJ on Friday and then starting with Witt again on Saturday. The recovery seems to be pretty good, but we're not going to push that, but if it stays consistent, he'll start the Saturday game with Travis Sthele following him. You're even gonna see Travis [Sthele] in the backend of the bullpen on Thursday, if that's what it takes. So, still trying to figure that piece out and I think a lot of people in the country are, but I like our attitude and the will or the ability to keep thinking about different ways to get better.
- How to handle emotions and what is at stake this weekend
- Well, we've been really talking about playoff baseball for the last three weeks. Since May started, even on my schedule, I've put May postseason baseball and playing every series like it's a Super Regional and you gotta win to advance and it's just been kind of a model for them, and they've done that. So they've done a really good job of back to back series on the road and then dropping the game at home where, quite frankly, we shouldn't have dropped, we gave it away and then bouncing back. So understanding that as an inexperienced group, kind of see what it takes, planting the seed of this is kind of week to week and how it works. At some point, you lose, you go home, and so you got to kind of start getting that mentality. So much more about that approach than big picture. I'll give them a big picture on Monday when we talk implications and RPI and stuff.
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