Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
Overall – 23-18-3 * not counting bonus plays *
LSU +13.5 vs. Alabama: I made Alabama (7-1 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) an 8.5-point favorite against the Tigers, who are 4-1 both SU and ATS in five home games this year. LSU is also 4-1-1 ATS with four outright victories in their last six games as a home underdog.
Alabama has been abysmal for our purposes in seven road games since the start of last season, which happens to coincide with Bill O’Brien’s time as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. In those seven road outings, the Crimson Tide is 2-5 ATS with a pair of outright losses.
However, three of those road wins have come by five combined points. In other words, they easily could’ve lost at Florida and at Auburn last year, in addition to at Texas this season. The Longhorns missed a chip-shot field goal before halftime and lost their star QB to an injury late in the first quarter.
If Auburn RB Tank Bigsby stays inbounds on his team’s last possession of regulation, ‘Bama loses the 2021 Iron Bowl on The Plains. At the Swamp last season, Alabama was the benefactor of three egregious calls by the referees in the first quarter and despite that nonsense, the Gators should’ve sent that game to overtime if not for a missed extra point that led to a two-point conversion that also failed.
LSU has played its best football of the season in the last two games, winning 45-35 at Florida before thumping previously-unbeaten Ole Miss 45-20 in Redstick. QB Jayden Daniels combined to throw five TD passes without an interception in the wins over the Gators and Rebels. He also ran for six TDs.
In the rare instances when Alabama has struggled in recent years, it’s usually against a mobile QB that can avoid pressure with his athleticism and make plays with his legs. Daniels fits that bill to a tee.
The transfer from Arizona St. has 524 rushing yards, nine TDs and 4.6 yards-per-carry average. In his four-year career that covers 37 games, Daniels has 1,812 rushing yards and 22 TDs.
Tennessee +8 at Georgia: Tennessee (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games. The Volunteers are off a dominant 44-6 win over Kentucky as 10-point home favorites. They sacked UK star quarterback Will Levis four times, limited him to only 98 passing yards and intercepted him three times.
Tennessee has had the best offense in the country all year, and now the defense is starting to play its best football. With that formula, Josh Heupel’s team blasted the Wildcats by more than five TDs even though they had two weeks to prepare for the trip to Rocky Top.
Heupel also welcomed back his best WR, Cedric Tillman, who had been out with an ankle injury since Week 3. Although Tillman was held to four catches for 22 yards, he was just shaking the rust off. The second-team All-SEC player in 2021 had two other receptions nullified due to penalties and was on a limited snap count.
Safety Jaylen McCollough also returned from a two-game suspension to contribute four tackles and one pass broken up.
Georgia is only 2-2 ATS in four home games. The Bulldogs will be playing without veteran LB Nolan Smith, who was lost to a season-ending injury in their 42-20 non-covering win over Florida.
Hendon Hooker has a remarkable 21/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with four rushing scores through eight games. He now has an incredible 74/11 career TD-INT ratio with 24 career rushing TDs. The transfer from Va. Tech has 8,177 career passing yards to go with 1,987 rushing yards.
Before the win over Alabama last month, you could’ve made a strong case that Hooker was one of the more underrated QBs in college football history. After he orchestrates an upset win over Georgia in Athens on Saturday, his 2022 campaign is going to start being compared to some of the best we’ve seen in a long time.
For a much smaller amount than the Vols +8 play, let’s get a little bit of Tennessee at around +245 on the money line. Let’s also package the Vols with LSU (+400 to +425) in a money-line parlay that should bring back a return in the +1200 to +1600 neighborhood.
TCU -8.5 vs. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this year, losing by margins of 13, 9 and 10 points. They’re off a 45-17 home loss to Baylor.
I made TCU (8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) a 14.5-point favorite in this spot. Sonny Dykes’s squad has won five of its eight games by double-digit margins. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four home games.
TCU feels disrespected by the CFP Committee placing it at No. 7 in the rankings. Therefore, it would like nothing more than to earn some style points and take out some frustration on a Big 12 rival.
With Max Duggan and his 22/2 TD-INT ratio, we have the QB advantage. We also have talent and speed advantages all over the field. Big of the Frogs against the Red Raiders, who have lost three in a row in this rivalry and dropped the last two by double-digit margins.
North Carolina -7 at Virginia: North Carolina (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is unbeaten in four road games with a 3-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Virginia (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in four home outings.
UVA has scored more than 17 points only once in seven games against FBS opponents, and that was in a 22-20 loss at Syracuse. QB Brennan Armstrong completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 4,449 yards with a 31/10 TD-INT ratio in 2021.
But after losing all five starters on their offensive line, it’s been an immense struggle for the Cavaliers offensively. They’re ranked No. 123 out of 131 FBS teams in scoring with their pedestrian 16.9 points-per-game average.
Armstrong is only connecting on 55.7 percent of his throws and has a mediocre 6/9 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, UNC has seen an upgrade in its QB play even though Sam Howell is the program’s all-time leader in career passing yards.
Sorry, Sam, but Drake Maye has been better. In fact, Pro Football Focus has him as college football’s highest-graded QB this year ahead of Hooker. Maye has completed 71.3 percent of his passes for 2,671 yards with a 29/3 TD-INT ratio. He’s also produced 439 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.5 YPC average.
Although UNC has issues defensively, they aren’t nearly as glaring as the ones UVA has on offense. The Tar Heels win by double digits.
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Overall – 23-18-3 * not counting bonus plays *
WEEK 10
LSU +13.5 vs. Alabama: I made Alabama (7-1 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) an 8.5-point favorite against the Tigers, who are 4-1 both SU and ATS in five home games this year. LSU is also 4-1-1 ATS with four outright victories in their last six games as a home underdog.
Alabama has been abysmal for our purposes in seven road games since the start of last season, which happens to coincide with Bill O’Brien’s time as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. In those seven road outings, the Crimson Tide is 2-5 ATS with a pair of outright losses.
However, three of those road wins have come by five combined points. In other words, they easily could’ve lost at Florida and at Auburn last year, in addition to at Texas this season. The Longhorns missed a chip-shot field goal before halftime and lost their star QB to an injury late in the first quarter.
If Auburn RB Tank Bigsby stays inbounds on his team’s last possession of regulation, ‘Bama loses the 2021 Iron Bowl on The Plains. At the Swamp last season, Alabama was the benefactor of three egregious calls by the referees in the first quarter and despite that nonsense, the Gators should’ve sent that game to overtime if not for a missed extra point that led to a two-point conversion that also failed.
LSU has played its best football of the season in the last two games, winning 45-35 at Florida before thumping previously-unbeaten Ole Miss 45-20 in Redstick. QB Jayden Daniels combined to throw five TD passes without an interception in the wins over the Gators and Rebels. He also ran for six TDs.
In the rare instances when Alabama has struggled in recent years, it’s usually against a mobile QB that can avoid pressure with his athleticism and make plays with his legs. Daniels fits that bill to a tee.
The transfer from Arizona St. has 524 rushing yards, nine TDs and 4.6 yards-per-carry average. In his four-year career that covers 37 games, Daniels has 1,812 rushing yards and 22 TDs.
Tennessee +8 at Georgia: Tennessee (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games. The Volunteers are off a dominant 44-6 win over Kentucky as 10-point home favorites. They sacked UK star quarterback Will Levis four times, limited him to only 98 passing yards and intercepted him three times.
Tennessee has had the best offense in the country all year, and now the defense is starting to play its best football. With that formula, Josh Heupel’s team blasted the Wildcats by more than five TDs even though they had two weeks to prepare for the trip to Rocky Top.
Heupel also welcomed back his best WR, Cedric Tillman, who had been out with an ankle injury since Week 3. Although Tillman was held to four catches for 22 yards, he was just shaking the rust off. The second-team All-SEC player in 2021 had two other receptions nullified due to penalties and was on a limited snap count.
Safety Jaylen McCollough also returned from a two-game suspension to contribute four tackles and one pass broken up.
Georgia is only 2-2 ATS in four home games. The Bulldogs will be playing without veteran LB Nolan Smith, who was lost to a season-ending injury in their 42-20 non-covering win over Florida.
Hendon Hooker has a remarkable 21/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with four rushing scores through eight games. He now has an incredible 74/11 career TD-INT ratio with 24 career rushing TDs. The transfer from Va. Tech has 8,177 career passing yards to go with 1,987 rushing yards.
Before the win over Alabama last month, you could’ve made a strong case that Hooker was one of the more underrated QBs in college football history. After he orchestrates an upset win over Georgia in Athens on Saturday, his 2022 campaign is going to start being compared to some of the best we’ve seen in a long time.
For a much smaller amount than the Vols +8 play, let’s get a little bit of Tennessee at around +245 on the money line. Let’s also package the Vols with LSU (+400 to +425) in a money-line parlay that should bring back a return in the +1200 to +1600 neighborhood.
TCU -8.5 vs. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this year, losing by margins of 13, 9 and 10 points. They’re off a 45-17 home loss to Baylor.
I made TCU (8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) a 14.5-point favorite in this spot. Sonny Dykes’s squad has won five of its eight games by double-digit margins. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four home games.
TCU feels disrespected by the CFP Committee placing it at No. 7 in the rankings. Therefore, it would like nothing more than to earn some style points and take out some frustration on a Big 12 rival.
With Max Duggan and his 22/2 TD-INT ratio, we have the QB advantage. We also have talent and speed advantages all over the field. Big of the Frogs against the Red Raiders, who have lost three in a row in this rivalry and dropped the last two by double-digit margins.
North Carolina -7 at Virginia: North Carolina (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is unbeaten in four road games with a 3-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Virginia (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in four home outings.
UVA has scored more than 17 points only once in seven games against FBS opponents, and that was in a 22-20 loss at Syracuse. QB Brennan Armstrong completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 4,449 yards with a 31/10 TD-INT ratio in 2021.
But after losing all five starters on their offensive line, it’s been an immense struggle for the Cavaliers offensively. They’re ranked No. 123 out of 131 FBS teams in scoring with their pedestrian 16.9 points-per-game average.
Armstrong is only connecting on 55.7 percent of his throws and has a mediocre 6/9 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, UNC has seen an upgrade in its QB play even though Sam Howell is the program’s all-time leader in career passing yards.
Sorry, Sam, but Drake Maye has been better. In fact, Pro Football Focus has him as college football’s highest-graded QB this year ahead of Hooker. Maye has completed 71.3 percent of his passes for 2,671 yards with a 29/3 TD-INT ratio. He’s also produced 439 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.5 YPC average.
Although UNC has issues defensively, they aren’t nearly as glaring as the ones UVA has on offense. The Tar Heels win by double digits.
