I still think Clinton wins and probably relatively comfortably. But Trump has certainly rallied in the polls and a victory for him no longer seems like a wild long shot.
I have found it interesting that I have seen little written speculation about how Trump would govern. I suspect both the conservative and liberal commentators have good reasons for not speculating such publicly. The reasons are, in short, that Trump will probably govern in a very bipartisan manner and seek to cut deals with Democrats in Congress. That might make him popular heading into 2020. Neither of those things will please conservatives and liberals.
The basis for my reasoning:
1) Trump is not particularly ideological. He doesn't care to please either the right or left.
2) His policy positions to date have been a mix of conservative/liberal talking points, with a huge dose of populism.
3) The people he most dislikes are the movement conservatives, such as Ted Cruz and the National Review types. He also obviously will hold a grudge against the Koch brothers for opposing him.
4) He will try to repay evangelicals for their support.
5) He has a very frosty relationship with Ryan and with McConnell.
6) He sees himself as a deal-maker.
7) He also already proclaimed that he has a good relationship with Pelosi and Schumer: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/26/donald-trump-ive-always-had-good-relationships-nan/
Trump knows that the biggest public complaint about Washington is the gridlock and partisan. My strong belief is that one of the first things he will do is woo Schumer and Pelosi to cut deals.
Liberals will scream and cry at first, but will quickly see what is really happening. Movement Conservatives will scream and cry for years, because they will know what is happening. But I suspect they will have little power. Are Ryan and McConnell really going to successfully oppose Trump's agenda when he says he is "the most bipartisan president in history!!"
We will see some huge spending packages on infrastructure, some protectionist trade policies for the labor unions, and a "reform" of Obamacare that will let 55 + people buy into Medicare. There may also be some bills to please evangelicals.
He will demonize Democrats when they oppose his strict immigration proposals. But I suspect that will largely be theater.
Having passed a number of high-profile bipartisan bills, Trump will enter 2020 with a legitimate claim as the guy who broke the "Washington insider establishment."
I have found it interesting that I have seen little written speculation about how Trump would govern. I suspect both the conservative and liberal commentators have good reasons for not speculating such publicly. The reasons are, in short, that Trump will probably govern in a very bipartisan manner and seek to cut deals with Democrats in Congress. That might make him popular heading into 2020. Neither of those things will please conservatives and liberals.
The basis for my reasoning:
1) Trump is not particularly ideological. He doesn't care to please either the right or left.
2) His policy positions to date have been a mix of conservative/liberal talking points, with a huge dose of populism.
3) The people he most dislikes are the movement conservatives, such as Ted Cruz and the National Review types. He also obviously will hold a grudge against the Koch brothers for opposing him.
4) He will try to repay evangelicals for their support.
5) He has a very frosty relationship with Ryan and with McConnell.
6) He sees himself as a deal-maker.
7) He also already proclaimed that he has a good relationship with Pelosi and Schumer: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/26/donald-trump-ive-always-had-good-relationships-nan/
Trump knows that the biggest public complaint about Washington is the gridlock and partisan. My strong belief is that one of the first things he will do is woo Schumer and Pelosi to cut deals.
Liberals will scream and cry at first, but will quickly see what is really happening. Movement Conservatives will scream and cry for years, because they will know what is happening. But I suspect they will have little power. Are Ryan and McConnell really going to successfully oppose Trump's agenda when he says he is "the most bipartisan president in history!!"
We will see some huge spending packages on infrastructure, some protectionist trade policies for the labor unions, and a "reform" of Obamacare that will let 55 + people buy into Medicare. There may also be some bills to please evangelicals.
He will demonize Democrats when they oppose his strict immigration proposals. But I suspect that will largely be theater.
Having passed a number of high-profile bipartisan bills, Trump will enter 2020 with a legitimate claim as the guy who broke the "Washington insider establishment."
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