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Scrolling through my podcast feed this week, I came across a couple of analysts I know in the NFL draft realm doing their "summer scouting series" for 2024 QBs in the NFL Draft. (Link here to Apple Podcasts).The show is called PFF's NFL Stock Exchange and it's hosted by Trevor Sikkema of Pro Football Focus and Connor Rogers from NBC Sports and SNYtv covering the Jets. I've known both of them for a long time and respect both of their opinions as people I have interacted with and gotten to know over the last decade as hard workers covering the draft, even though I often take issues with Pro Football Focus' player grades and opaque-level of transparency as to who is actually doing the filmwork and grading of these players.
The episode this week was a first look and initial rankings of the 2024 QB class, so of course, I wanted to hear what they had to say about Quinn Ewers. Of course, these are just the opinions of two people, but I found it so indicative of what I believe we're going to see brought forth in the public spectrum regarding Ewers as an NFL draft prospect: lots of strong, differing opinions. Not a week goes by where there's not a mock draft with Ewers going in the first round, and not a week goes by where some list doesn't even include Ewers in the top several tiers of returning college QBs for 2024.
No one out there is going to watch Quinn Ewers play and not fall in love with his arm talent at the very least (which we have seen time and time again is enough to lead NFL teams to take a “risk” on a possible future signal-caller), but, as you'll see ... Some people do have real concerns about other things.
We've talked about it before, but right after the current draft cycle, narratives (largely driven by media) really do begin to take shape among those who focus on the draft full-time, and those narratives tend to stick more often than not. Here are some notes on what these two guys said when introducing Quinn Ewers to their fairly substantial audience for the first time. It's important to take mental notes of how these players are being talked about in the national space prior to their (final?) seasons in college, because confirmation bias in analysts will usually go back to their original evaluation unless something is shown that absolutely demands they reassess.
It's also just interesting to hear how serious people outside of our Texas "bubble" view such an important piece of our landscape from the outside. Some of the topics they brought up on this podcast are topics we've talked about a lot in relation to Ewers, while others were novel and surprising:
Rogers:
- Has Ewers rated as his No.5 QB in the 2024 class.
- Rounding out his Top 5 are
4. Bo Nix, Oregon
3. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
2. Drake Maye, North Carolina
1. Caleb Williams, USC
- on Ewers: He has to add mass, needs to pack on some weight to his frame. He's young so he's not too worried, but he wants to see more mass this year.
- High-level arm talent but has a consistent sidearm release.
- He's not a drop-back, over-the-top, conventional passer. He looks like a guy you just handed a nerf ball to on the beach, and somehow makes some incredible throws, also some really bad ones.
- "By far" the least accurate of all the QBs he has ranked in his Top 5. It's where he needs to make the biggest jump.
- Vertical touch against Alabama was extremely impressive. Watching back, it's even better than he remembered in real time. He'll hang in there and get killed to make throws.
- Accuracy on intermediate and deep-middle throws is too inconsistent because he doesn't play with consistent mechanics. He doesn't rotate his base with his shoulders, and doesn't use his base to drive throws.
- Going through growing pains as the lead general of his offense.
- There is a chance they are doing a summer scouting series on him again next year because if he doesn't improve in some areas, he'll probably be better off going back to Texas.
- Young player; love the talent; he could make the jump because he's made some jaw-dropping throws.
Sikkema:
- Has Ewers as his QB6 in the class.
- His Top 5 are
5. Jordan Travis, Florida State
4. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
3. Drake Maye, North Carolina
2. Bo Nix, Oregon
1. Caleb Williams, USC
- 32nd percentile in height, 7th percentile in weight. He's shorter and lighter than you'd think -- you don't think of Ewers as a small guy per se, but if were to go to the combine right now, those would be his numbers.
- Size makes no difference in his natural arm talent. "I don't know if I've ever seen a passer like Quinn Ewers." For him to generate the power he does in his arm without having good lower-body mechanics and without having a lot of mass on his body to harness, without even following through in a way that gets his whole core involved in the motion, it's incredible. Like a specialty pitcher in baseball.
- When he throws the ball, he not only throws it sidearm, he keeps his arm up like he is flicking it. Not sure if it's that big a negative, but it probably is because he misses way too often.
- Ewers adjusted completion percentage (does not count throwaways, drops, etc.) should be at 73.5% as a solid baseline for good prospect play coming into the NFL. Ewers is at 67.5% so far at Texas.
- When pressured, that number goes down to 51%. His mechanics are not great when he's clean, but when he's off-platform, they are worse. It goes into him also having a higher "turnover-worthy play"-rate (a PFF stat, so buyer beware).
- He likes him, but he is way too volatile right now. He doesn't know how much Texas is going to try to change his throwing motion at this point, because it would be a really big overhaul, but if he looks in 2023 like he did in 2022, "he doesn't have the consistency to lead that team right now."
- If he becomes accurate with his current throwing motion, he'll be a total anomaly.
- The one quarter in the Bama game is what you can hang your hat on. He was Top 30 "big-time throw" percentage in college football last year ... the highs are very good. Fun player who will take chances. "He's a wild man."
- Can become a Will Levis-type first-round conversation where you really consider first and foremost arm talent and traits, but it could also be a "Spencer Rattler situation" where "if he goes the Spencer Rattler route, he's transferring to his third school because Arch Manning is there."
- He ended by saying this is Quinn Ewers' last year at Texas any way you slice it. "He's either going to the draft or he's going to transfer."
