Part 1 of 3:
In reading the many threads on this subject, after Urban (and some of the fantasy hires, like Dabo & Saban), I see a lot of guys throwing out names like Brady, Dykes, Harsin, et al......... A couple of years ago, I did a breakdown for the board of every coach hired by every elite program over the last 50 years......where they were hired from, the success rate for coaches based on where they were hired from (mid-major HC, NFL HC, P5 HC, OC/DC, internal promotion, etc). That research & breakdown showed that by far, the WORST areas to shop for a coach that will win a National Championship for your school are mid-major HCs and OCs/DCs at other programs. If you take every OC or DC hired by a P5 program to be their HC (not counting internal promotions) over the last 50 years and every mid-major HC hired by a P5 program to be their HC over the last 50 years...........and you whittled it down to coaches that won a National Championship at their first P5 job.............this is that list:
* Urban Meyer
* Bobby Bowden
* Bob Stoops
* Jim Tressel
That is it. That is every single coach, over the last half-century of college football, that fits the profile of Brady, Dykes, Harsin, etc. Point blank, you don't hire from the coordinator or mid-major ranks unless you're desperate, stupid or both........b/c the odds you're going to hit a home run are almost zero.
Why do mid-major HCs and P5 coordinators have such abysmal success in their first P5 stop? For the coordinators, they're being asked to do 50-100 new things they've never done before........and to do it with almost no margin for error. OCs and DCs have no experience being in charge of an entire staff, being the face of a program, developing a recruiting game plan, recruiting for both an offensive & defensive scheme, hiring coaches, hiring support staff, leading a team, coordinating practices, making sure all 100 moving parts are in sync, etc. If working under great HCs rubbed off on coordinators, then Charlie Strong would have been an epic home run after working for Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier & Lou Holtz. But, running the show takes practice. And, you need to practice at a place where mistakes are tolerated and time is given to tinker & figure out how to correct & eliminate them.
For mid-major HCs, the learning curve is steep for two reasons: (1) the coaching talent at the mid-major level is poor and (2) the player talent at the mid-major level is poor. If you're a guy with a legitimately advanced offensive or defensive system, or that's good at identifying and developing 2 and 3-star players, you're going to have a distinct advantage at the mid-major level, because either you're going to be superior at Xs & Os or your players are going to be superior in their development & execution. Either will make you standout as a coach. But, at the P5 level, it takes more than one or two exemplary traits to be a success. And that's why the history books are FULL of mid-major coaches that looked like rock stars, but flopped in epic fashion at the P5 level:
* Charlie Strong
* Tom Herman
* Dan Hawkins
* Dennis Franchione
* Kevin Sumlin
* Jim McElwain
* Rich Rodriguez
* Brady Hoke
* Al Golden
At the P5 level, the Xs & Os talent is better.........the teaching of skills is better.........the S&C is better...........the talent is better..........the coordinators are better (and more experienced). A lot of coaches that were stars at the mid-major level get into a P5 job and immediately get punched in the face by the reality that they're not coaching against bums anymore. It's like boxing as an amateur, then turning pro and immediately facing title contenders. The level of skill and attention to detail require to be the best is astronomically greater.
If you look at where the most successful coaches come from, they were either internal promotions (Dabo, Fulmer, Day, Riley, Carr, Osborne, et al). Or, they were coaches that had some success (but not necessarily record breaking success) at a lesser P5 program (Mack Brown, Spurrier, Holtz, Saban, Jimmy Johnson, et al). Those guys have much higher rates of success (i.e. winning NCs) because they're already used to the coaching and player talent level at in the P5 ranks, as well as the heightened demands made of P5 HCs. And, those coaches hired from other P5 programs generally have 4-10 years of experience as a P5 HC as well. So, they've had to recruit & train their own players, replace coaches that have been hired away, etc. And, they have experience replacing a coach that likely was well-liked, has loyalists on the team, etc.
continued.....
In reading the many threads on this subject, after Urban (and some of the fantasy hires, like Dabo & Saban), I see a lot of guys throwing out names like Brady, Dykes, Harsin, et al......... A couple of years ago, I did a breakdown for the board of every coach hired by every elite program over the last 50 years......where they were hired from, the success rate for coaches based on where they were hired from (mid-major HC, NFL HC, P5 HC, OC/DC, internal promotion, etc). That research & breakdown showed that by far, the WORST areas to shop for a coach that will win a National Championship for your school are mid-major HCs and OCs/DCs at other programs. If you take every OC or DC hired by a P5 program to be their HC (not counting internal promotions) over the last 50 years and every mid-major HC hired by a P5 program to be their HC over the last 50 years...........and you whittled it down to coaches that won a National Championship at their first P5 job.............this is that list:
* Urban Meyer
* Bobby Bowden
* Bob Stoops
* Jim Tressel
That is it. That is every single coach, over the last half-century of college football, that fits the profile of Brady, Dykes, Harsin, etc. Point blank, you don't hire from the coordinator or mid-major ranks unless you're desperate, stupid or both........b/c the odds you're going to hit a home run are almost zero.
Why do mid-major HCs and P5 coordinators have such abysmal success in their first P5 stop? For the coordinators, they're being asked to do 50-100 new things they've never done before........and to do it with almost no margin for error. OCs and DCs have no experience being in charge of an entire staff, being the face of a program, developing a recruiting game plan, recruiting for both an offensive & defensive scheme, hiring coaches, hiring support staff, leading a team, coordinating practices, making sure all 100 moving parts are in sync, etc. If working under great HCs rubbed off on coordinators, then Charlie Strong would have been an epic home run after working for Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier & Lou Holtz. But, running the show takes practice. And, you need to practice at a place where mistakes are tolerated and time is given to tinker & figure out how to correct & eliminate them.
For mid-major HCs, the learning curve is steep for two reasons: (1) the coaching talent at the mid-major level is poor and (2) the player talent at the mid-major level is poor. If you're a guy with a legitimately advanced offensive or defensive system, or that's good at identifying and developing 2 and 3-star players, you're going to have a distinct advantage at the mid-major level, because either you're going to be superior at Xs & Os or your players are going to be superior in their development & execution. Either will make you standout as a coach. But, at the P5 level, it takes more than one or two exemplary traits to be a success. And that's why the history books are FULL of mid-major coaches that looked like rock stars, but flopped in epic fashion at the P5 level:
* Charlie Strong
* Tom Herman
* Dan Hawkins
* Dennis Franchione
* Kevin Sumlin
* Jim McElwain
* Rich Rodriguez
* Brady Hoke
* Al Golden
At the P5 level, the Xs & Os talent is better.........the teaching of skills is better.........the S&C is better...........the talent is better..........the coordinators are better (and more experienced). A lot of coaches that were stars at the mid-major level get into a P5 job and immediately get punched in the face by the reality that they're not coaching against bums anymore. It's like boxing as an amateur, then turning pro and immediately facing title contenders. The level of skill and attention to detail require to be the best is astronomically greater.
If you look at where the most successful coaches come from, they were either internal promotions (Dabo, Fulmer, Day, Riley, Carr, Osborne, et al). Or, they were coaches that had some success (but not necessarily record breaking success) at a lesser P5 program (Mack Brown, Spurrier, Holtz, Saban, Jimmy Johnson, et al). Those guys have much higher rates of success (i.e. winning NCs) because they're already used to the coaching and player talent level at in the P5 ranks, as well as the heightened demands made of P5 HCs. And, those coaches hired from other P5 programs generally have 4-10 years of experience as a P5 HC as well. So, they've had to recruit & train their own players, replace coaches that have been hired away, etc. And, they have experience replacing a coach that likely was well-liked, has loyalists on the team, etc.
continued.....
