Despite all of their inflammatory rhetoric and gnashing of teeth, numerous Senate Democrats privately loathe the consideration of Bolton and other witnesses. It is plausible to assume that the democrats would at least minimally benefit from Bolton’s testimony, but conversely, a hefty cost would be required to seek it. First, the president would assert executive privilege over Bolton’s testimony and documents, which would drag out the proceedings until the Supreme Court was forced to decide the issue. Most must realize that the political costs for Democrats are much greater than the value they would get in return by extending a trial whose outcome is virtually inevitable. Simply put, Trump will be acquitted.
So, what’s the best achievable outcome for Senate Democrats? It is a party-line Republican vote to forego witnesses and end the trial now. The Democrats cannot vote for that, but a loss would allow them to say ‘we wanted to know more, but Trump and the Republicans wanted to keep us in the dark. It’s a massive cover-up by a criminal president in cahoots with a pliable Republican party.’ Adam Schiff will claim a moral victory and say he would have won if only Trump’s aides had been allowed to testify. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar can return to Iowa and the campaign trail.
On the Republican side, Trump and his supporters will take a victory lap—and use it to damn Democrats until the election. They can say the Democrats, the Deep State, and their media allies wanted to deny Americans a chance to choose their president. That argument will be a lot stronger if US Attorney John Durham indicts senior members of the Obama administration. But mainly President Trump will stress how well the economy is performing and how much it is benefiting average workers. His message: don’t kill the goose that keeps laying golden eggs.
As this political battle shrinks in the rear-view mirror, I surmise the American public will remember it much as they do Bill Clinton’s impeachment. A dangerous mistake. The looming mystery is who, if anyone, will the American people punish for the error.
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So, what’s the best achievable outcome for Senate Democrats? It is a party-line Republican vote to forego witnesses and end the trial now. The Democrats cannot vote for that, but a loss would allow them to say ‘we wanted to know more, but Trump and the Republicans wanted to keep us in the dark. It’s a massive cover-up by a criminal president in cahoots with a pliable Republican party.’ Adam Schiff will claim a moral victory and say he would have won if only Trump’s aides had been allowed to testify. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar can return to Iowa and the campaign trail.
On the Republican side, Trump and his supporters will take a victory lap—and use it to damn Democrats until the election. They can say the Democrats, the Deep State, and their media allies wanted to deny Americans a chance to choose their president. That argument will be a lot stronger if US Attorney John Durham indicts senior members of the Obama administration. But mainly President Trump will stress how well the economy is performing and how much it is benefiting average workers. His message: don’t kill the goose that keeps laying golden eggs.
As this political battle shrinks in the rear-view mirror, I surmise the American public will remember it much as they do Bill Clinton’s impeachment. A dangerous mistake. The looming mystery is who, if anyone, will the American people punish for the error.
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