Some fun with numbers.

[LongfellowDrew]

Ok so I did some "research" on how teams did two years after their top 10 recruit ranking.

I used this just to give me something to look at as the season goes just to see if we come out on the winning side.

So basically I went back to 2010 and gave those teams that had a top 10 recruit ranking 2 years to settle in and mature. This was just for fun guys don't kill me over this.

I'll start with #10 since Texas was ranked #10 in 2015. Since 2010 the rankings look like this.
2010 UCLA - 2012 Record 9-5
2011 Clemson - 2013 Record 11-2
2012 Miami - 2014 Record 6-7
2013 Auburn - 2015 Record 7-6
2014 USC - 2016 Record 10-3
2015 Texas - 2017 Record 7-6

I could've screwed up but I did my best to double check the records 2 years later after the rankings.

 

[clob94]

Ok--- where to begin.

First, good job on the data compiling, however, if this were held to the standard of scientific standards, you'd need a larger sample size. Your theory has merit, you'd just have to look at the previous class ranking and the class ranking of the next class.

Three years of recruiting rankings should be a large enough sample size. I made a B in statistical analysis in college but do we have any stat nerds in here?

 

[LongfellowDrew]

you'd need a larger sample size.

I almost did Top 20 but I just didn't have the time so I decided Top 10 was good enough. LOL!

What I did notice was that if your team had a recruiting class #1 you were on the 10+ winning record.

 

[ASURAM2010]

I do love some stats. I will try and go through some recruiting classes with a top 10 class and the class before and after to see what the results looks like. Im just going to use the rivals rankings because they are readily available.

 

[bubba2023]

The analysis has already been done numerous times. The data shows that top recruiting classes correlate to wins. People mistakenly take that mean it's guaranteed and it's not as other factors can lead to poor/great seasons outside of the class ranking.

 

[LongfellowDrew]

other factors can lead to poor/great seasons outside of the class ranking.

Like new coaching staff!

 

[Longyac]

Like new coaching staff!

Or enough guys in the 2015 class not making it that if you take them out it is the #14 class.

 

[clob94]

Or enough guys in the 2015 class not making it that if you take them out it is the #14 class.

What has happened to all those Florida kids that didn't qualify or left after two practices?

 

[ekal48]

Thanks for the work.

It will be interesting to see how the teams fared as the ranking go up.

 

[bubba2023]

Like new coaching staff!

New staff is generally going to lead to more attrition so yeah. Not all attrition is good in the short term, and just because they didn't go on to be stars else where doesn't mean they weren't quality players or better than their replacement here.

 

[ASURAM2010]

For the following, I have taken the year prior to the Top 10 Recruiting Class and next three years. I have gone through and looked at the records and the final ranking in the season that follows the top 10 recruiting class.

2010 Recruiting Ranking: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 Records, Final Ranking
1)USC 8-5, 8-5, 9-3, 7-6, NR
2)Florida 13-1,8-5,7-6,11-2 NR
3)Texas 13-1,5-7,8-5,9-4, NR
4)Auburn 8-5,14-0,8-5,3-9, 1
5)Alabama 14-0,10-3,12-1,13-1, 10
6)LSU 9-4,11-2,13-1,10-3,8
7)Oklahoma 8-2,12-2,10-3,10-3, 6
8)UCLA 7-6,4-8,6-8,9-5,NR
9)Tennessee 7-6,6-7,5-7,5-7,NR
10) Florida St. 7-6,10-4,9-4,12-2 17

2011 Recruiting Ranking: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Records, Final Ranking
1) Alabama 10-3,12-1,13-1,11-2, 1
2) Florida St. 10-4,9-4,12-2,14-0, 23
3) Texas 5-7,8-5,9-4,8-5, NR
4) USC 8-5,9-3,7-6,10-4, NR
5) Georgia 6-7,10-4,12-2,8-5, 19
6) LSU 11-2,13-1,10-3,10-3, 2
7) Auburn 14-0,8-5,3-9,12-2 NR
8) Clemson 6-7, 10-4,11-2,11-2, 22
9) Oregon 12-1,12-2,12-1,11-2, 4
10) Notre Dame 8-5,8-5,12-1,9-4, NR

2012 Recruiting Ranking: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 Records, Final Rankings
1) Alabama 12-1,13-1,11-2,12-2, 1
2) Texas 8-5,9-4,8-5,6-7, 19
3) Florida 7-6,11-2, 4-8,7-5, 9
4) Ohio State 6-7,12-0,12-2,14-1, 3
5) Stanford 11-1,10-1,11-3,8-5, 7
6) Florida St. 9-4,12-2,14-0,13-1, 10
7) Michigan 11-2, 8-5,7-6,5-7, 24
8) USC 9-3,7-6,10-4,8-5, NR
9) Miami 6-6, 7-5, 9-4, 6-7, NR
10) Auburn 8-5, 3-9, 12-2, 8-5, NR

2013 Recruiting Rankings: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 Records, Final Rankings
1) Alabama 13-1, 11-2, 12-2, 14-1, 7
2) Ohio St. 12-0, 12-2, 14-1, 12-1, 12
3) Notre Dame 12-1, 9-4, 8-5, 10-3, 20
4) Florida 11-2, 4-8, 7-5, 10-4, NR
5) Michigan 8-5, 7-6, 5-7, 10-3, NR
6) LSU 10-3, 10-3 8-5, 9-3 14
7) Ole Miss 7-6, 8-5, 9-4, 10-3, NR
8) Auburn 3-9, 12-2, 8-5, 7-6, 2
9) UCLA 9-5, 10-3, 10-3, 8-5, NR
10) Florida St. 12-2, 14-0, 13-1, 10-3, 1

2014 Recruiting Rankings: 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 Records, Final Ranking
1) Alabama 11-2, 12-2, 14-1, 14-1, 4
2) LSU 10-3, 8-5, 9-3, 8-4, NR
3) Ohio State 12-2, 14-1, 12-1, 12-2, 1
4) Florida St. 14-0, 13-1, 10-3, 10-3, 5
5) Tennessee 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, 9-4, NR
6) Texas A&M 9-4, 8-5, 8-5, 8-5 NR
7) Georgia 8-5, 10-3, 10-3, 8-5, 9
8) Florida 4-8, 7-5, 10-4, 9-4, NR
9) Auburn 12-2, 8-5, 7-6, 8-5, 22
10) USC 10-4, 8-5, 8-6, 10-3, 20

In those 5 years of recruiting, there have only been 22 teams that have a Top 10 finish in the recruiting polls. In those same 5 years, 3 teams have won national championships (Alabama, Auburn, Florida St.) If you add the two seasons 2015 and 2016, you only add 1 national champion (Ohio St.)

Another note, of those national champions the fewest number of games one since 2010 is Auburn with 60 averaging 9 wins per season. Alabama 86 wins, average of 12 a year, Ohio State has won 80, average 11 per season, Florida St has won 78 with an average of 11 per season.

For recruiting classes 2010-2014, Alabama has averaged the recruiting ranking of 1.8, Florida St. has 6.4, Auburn has 7.6, Ohio State has 9, and Texas has averaged 10.4. Texas has won a total of 46 games over the last 7 years averaging 7 wins a year with no more than 9 wins in any one season.

 

[bubba2023]

What has happened to all those Florida kids that didn't qualify or left after two practices?

That florida 5 or whatever we called it was one of the more ridiculous narratives that our fanbase latched on to, but we were desperate.

 

[ASURAM2010]

Here is the average recruiting rankings for 2010-2016
Alabama 1.7 - 4 National Championships, 1 Runner Up
Florida St. 5.3 - National Championship
USC 6.7
LSU 7.3 - 1 National Runner Up
Auburn 7.6 - 1 National Championship, 1 National Runner Up
Ohio St. 8.1 - 1 National Champion
Florida 9.4
Texas 10.7 - 1 National Runner Up
Clemson 11.1 - 1 National Championship, 1 National Runner Up
Oklahoma 13.1
Oregon 18.3 - National Runner Up
Michigan 19.7
Miami 20.3
Stanford 23.9

 

[clob94]

That florida 5 or whatever we called it was one of the more ridiculous narratives that our fanbase latched on to, but we were desperate.

Were????? Or ARE...

 

[bubba2023]

Were????? Or ARE...

Could you repeat that? I was restocking my liquor cabinet in preparation for Saturday.

 

[LongfellowDrew]

Rec. Rk 2015 2017 Record
#1 Alabama 13-1
#2 USC 11-3
#3 Florida St 7-6
#4 Tennessee 4-8
#5 LSU 9-4
#6 Georgia 13-2
#7 Ohio State 12-2
#8 Auburn 10-4
#9 Clemson 12-2
#10 Texas 7-6

Updated

 

[clob94]

So your statistical analysis was pretty close. Interesting.

 

[Mister Moses]

Oklahoma is in the top 10 in one of the years listed. I think they were at #14 ranking average for 2013-2016. Last year was a good top 10 class and this year is a real good class. I imagine they will improve on defense with these classes. OU started a couple of freshman on defense in the Rose bowl. The middle linebacker made mistakes. Some old missing posters predicted OU’s demise right after Mack Browns departure. They do alright with what they recruit.

 

[LongfellowDrew]

Oklahoma is in the top 10 in one of the years listed. I think they were at #14 ranking average for 2013-2016. Last year was a good top 10 class and this year is a real good class. I imagine they will improve on defense with these classes. OU started a couple of freshman on defense in the Rose bowl. The middle linebacker made mistakes. Some old missing posters predicted OU’s demise right after Mack Browns departure. They do alright with what they recruit.

OU's top 10 was in 2010 and 2017.

 

[speedstrength]

The question being is to what extent does variable x predict variable y. Or in our case to what extent does recruiting ranking predict wins 2 years later or to what extent does final ranking 2 years later. You could do a simple linear regression with 100 data points over several years with recruiting as your predictor variable and either wins or final ranking as the dependent variable. Look for p<.05 and R2 > 0.33

 

[LongfellowDrew]

Rec. Rk 2016 2018 Record (so far)

#1 Alabama 13-0
#2 LSU 9-3
#3 Florida St 5-7
#4 Ohio State 12-1
#5 Ole Miss 5-7
#6 Georgia 11-2
#7 Texas 9-4
#8 Michigan 10-2
#9 Auburn 7-5
#10 USC 5-7

 

[Belldozer1]

Here is the average recruiting rankings for 2010-2016
Alabama 1.7 - 4 National Championships, 1 Runner Up
Florida St. 5.3 - National Championship
USC 6.7
LSU 7.3 - 1 National Runner Up
Auburn 7.6 - 1 National Championship, 1 National Runner Up
Ohio St. 8.1 - 1 National Champion
Florida 9.4
Texas 10.7 - 1 National Runner Up
Clemson 11.1 - 1 National Championship, 1 National Runner Up
Oklahoma 13.1
Oregon 18.3 - National Runner Up
Michigan 19.7
Miami 20.3
Stanford 23.9

Amazing how OU has dominated the conference and now a mainstay in the playoffs considering their low recruiting stats. Can’t discount good coaching. Nick Saban is a good coach but do you think he’s be getting the same results with OU’s recruiting classes? Don’t think so. There’s a reason he’s had the success at Alabama that he didn’t have at his previous stops and it ain’t the x’s and o’s. I know one feeds the other etc.

 

[Deweygolfer]

Amazing how OU has dominated the conference and now a mainstay in the playoffs considering their low recruiting stats. Can’t discount good coaching. Nick Saban is a good coach but do you think he’s be getting the same results with OU’s recruiting classes? Don’t think so. There’s a reason he’s had the success at Alabama that he didn’t have at his previous stops and it ain’t the x’s and o’s. I know one feeds the other etc.

Good success rate for OU on transfers as well...………….