Why such a big disparity in predicted election result probabilities?
Odds markets have it roughly 52-48 in favor of Biden, so basically tied (remember, this is probabilities not percentage of popular vote).
Statisticians have it anywhere from 70-30 to 90-10, putting Biden in a much more commanding position.
Now, the statisticians are relying primarily of polling, with adjustments from there; whereas gambling markets are merely people betting.
Any thoughts on which one is likely to be more accurate? I think these statisticians are smart and unbiased enough to adjust for any silent Trump supporters, especially after 2016.
Are gamblers more/less likely to be conservative?
Any thoughts?
Odds markets have it roughly 52-48 in favor of Biden, so basically tied (remember, this is probabilities not percentage of popular vote).
Statisticians have it anywhere from 70-30 to 90-10, putting Biden in a much more commanding position.
Now, the statisticians are relying primarily of polling, with adjustments from there; whereas gambling markets are merely people betting.
Any thoughts on which one is likely to be more accurate? I think these statisticians are smart and unbiased enough to adjust for any silent Trump supporters, especially after 2016.
Are gamblers more/less likely to be conservative?
Any thoughts?
