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Home Sweet Home
The Horns continue their 4 game homestand as they once again host a Top 10 team at Disch-Falk Field. This time, the Auburn Tigers comes to town as the number 8 team in the nation per the latest D1Baseball poll.
If the Horns want to keep their spot at #1 in the nation, they will not just have to overcome the team in the opposite dugout, they will have to do so with at best an amended lineup and at worst, without one of their top hitters.
2B Ethan Mendoza is currently listed as day to day after having landed on his shoulder during the Kentucky game this past Sunday. He subsequently missed Tuesday night due to the staff wanting to get his shoulder some rest. At media availability on Wednesday (April 16th), Coach Schlossnagle said that Mendoza was day to day and would be available as a hitter before he’s available as a fielder. The staff will do everything they can to get him back in the lineup for the series against Auburn, but if he is not able to go, that is another big piece of the lineup that will be missing for the Horns.
On paper, the Horns have a pretty big leg up on Auburn in the pitching department with a 3.04 ERA v. a 5.11 ERA in SEC play. On paper, Auburn has an advantage in hitting with a .271 average as opposed to Texas who is hitting .259 in SEC play.
Games are not played on paper though and I expect that this will be a very tough, closely fought series. Auburn has shown that they can beat big time teams, as evidenced by their win over Oregon State, series win over Vanderbilt, series win over Kentucky, series win over Alabama, win over Georgia Tech, and series sweep over LSU.
That said, they have also been swept by Georgia and lost to UAB twice.
The Horns obviously are not at full strength offensively, so the pitching will need to be lights out, especially the starters. The Horns rotation will have to watch out for the top of the lineup guys as they are all solid bats, especially the power of Cooper McMurray and the outstanding hit tool of Ike Irish. Auburn also got a boost as Cade Belyeu (no relation to Max) appears to be healthy enough to get back into the lineup. He is a guy that seemingly always come through with clutch hits.
Offensively, the Horns are second in the nation behind Notre Dame in pitches per at-bat. I do not expect that trend to change any time soon. At the plate, the Horns will need to try to by score by whatever means they can. Whether it is a single and a blast, or extra base hits, or even the occasional sac bunt, runs have become a bit of a premium for the Horns in SEC play and they will need a mature approach, especially against the Thursday night starter Dutton as he doesn’t walk many batters and racks up the strikeouts.
Overall, this feels like a series that will come down to a couple of pivotal plays and I feel like it could go either way. I am giving the edge to the Horns purely because the pitching staff has been so good for the Horns and the series is at home. Disch-Falk Field has been good to the Horns and the Texas team will need ALL the support it can get from the Horns this series.
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#8 Auburn Tigers v. #2 Texas Longhorns
Date: April 17-19 (Thurs – Sat)
Time: Thur at 7pm; Fri at 6pm; Sat at 12pm
Where: Disch-Falk Field
TV: SEC Network+
Series History:
- First Met: 1912
- Last Met: 1995 in Oklahoma City
- Last Texas Victory: The Horns have never beaten Auburn
- All-Time Series Record: 0-2-1
- Home Record: 0-1-1
- Horns have lost the two games to Auburn by a combined total of 3 runs
- Auburn is picked to finish 10th out of 16 teams – just one spot behind Texas
- 2024 Season: 27-26 (8-22 SEC) – During the 2024 season, pitching was a consistent issue as the Tigers really struggled with their starting rotation.
Records:
Auburn Tigers: 27-10 (9-6 SEC)
Texas Longhorns: 30-5 (13-2 SEC)
RPI / SOS:
Auburn: 4 / 1
Texas: 3 / 22
Prediction:
- Texas wins the series 2-1
- On the season, I am 24-10
Pitching Matchups:
- Thur– LHP Jared Spencer (4-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) v. RHP Samuel Dutton (5-2, 2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
- LSU transfer, Dutton has been the staff ace this season.
- 5 pitch mix, he has a fastball that sits 94 and mixes in a slider and changeup as well
- Fri– LHP Luke Harrison (2-0, 2.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) v. LHP Cade Fisher (1-0, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP)
- Fisher is a transfer from Florida and was rated as one of the top portal arms
- He has elite stuff but struggled with consistency and had a tendency to lose his feel at times
- Sat– Texas RHP Ruger Riojas (6-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) v. RHP Andreas Alvarez (1-0, 6.43 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
- Sunday has been treated as a TBA for much of the season
- Andreas Alvarez has been the go to option the past two SEC weekends
- True freshman ranked by PG as No. 266 in the class
Auburn Bullpen:
Carson Myers (0-1, 3 saves, 12 apps, 3.25 ERA, 27.2 IP)
Parker Carlson (3-1, 1 save, 10 apps, 3.50 ERA, 18 IP) – Questionable on the injury report
Ryan Hetzler (0-0, 4 saves, 11 apps, 3.94 ERA, 16 IP)
Griffin Gravs (3-1, 7 apps, 4.05 ERA, 13.1 IP)
Cam Tilly (2-1, 10 apps, 4.70 ERA, 23 IP)
Auburn Offensive Leaders:
- Chase Fralick (.351 BA, .897 OPS, 2 HR, 30 RBI, .489 SLG%, .408 OB%)
- Cooper McMurray (.348 BA, 1.053 OPS, 8 HR, 35 RBI, .594 SLG%, 459 OB%)
- Ike Irish (.345 BA, 1.073 OPS, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .622 SLG%, .451 OB%, 4-4 SB)
- Chris Rembert (.315 BA, .962 OPS, 4 HR, 21 RBI, .491 SLG%, .471 OB%, 4-7 SB)
- Cade Belyeu (.301 BA, .962 OPS, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .495 SLG%, .468 LB%, 11-13 SB)
Team Stats Comp:
Scoring Margin (Run Differential):
Auburn: 46th (+2.6)
Texas: 20th (+3.4)
Runs Per Game:
Auburn: 100th (+7.3)
Texas: 89th (+7.5)
Hits per Game:
Auburn: 67th (+10.1)
Texas: 93rd (+9.8)
Runs per Game Allowed:
Auburn: 35th (+4.8)
Texas: 5th (+3.8)
Hits per Game Allowed:
Auburn: 23rd (+7.5)
Texas: 9th (+6.9)
Most Quadrant 1 Wins:
Auburn: Tied 1st (11)
Texas: Tied 1st (11)
STATS BREAKDOWN
| STAT | TEXAS | AUBURN |
| Batting Average | .287 | .303 |
| OPS | .907 | .895 |
| Runs | 261 | 271 |
| Hits | 342 | 374 |
| Doubles | 89 | 75 |
| Triples | 7 | 4 |
| Home Runs | 55 | 48 |
| RBIs | 244 | 249 |
| SLG% | .512 | .487 |
| Walks | 185 | 177 |
| Strikeouts | 320 | 238 |
| OB% | .395 | .408 |
| Stolen Bases | 41-56 | 44-56 |
| ERA | 2.97 | 4.45 |
| WHIP | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Saves | 15 | 10 |
| Earned Runs | 103 | 160 |
| Bases on Balls | 120 | 131 |
| Strikeouts | 326 | 355 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 20 | 30 |
| B/Avg | .214 | .232 |
| Errors | 31 | 26 |
| Fielding% | .976 | .980 |
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Weekend Non-Conference Games:
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Weekend SEC Games:
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Look at the current hitting stats for SEC teams:
Look at the current pitching stats for SEC teams:
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