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Texas is playing with a weight on its shoulders, the UT offense, and more midweek musings...

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
Gold Member
Apr 26, 2005
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Wooten, Austin
For Texas and its fans, USC week has arrived, and it’s fair to say the anticipation, on both sides, isn’t at the level it was prior to the season. But if Texas allows it to be, Saturday can be a moment for Tom Herman to at least get his program out of the woods and on a road. That and more in this week’s column:

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1) When I watched both of Texas’s first two games again, I saw positives and negatives, highs and lows, and, well, visions that created confusion. We can debate reasons for UT’s slow start in year two under Tom Herman. Yes, the offense looks eerily similar to last season’s nauseating rollercoaster. Yes, the quarterback position remains a question. Yes, Texas is still struggling to win games, or close out those wins they should.

While my eyes fixated on schematic aspects of games and individual player performances, I couldn’t help but notice a trend through UT’s first two games. Texas is playing with some sort of weight on its shoulders.

Why? I don’t know. Maybe it’s the weight of expectations; maybe it’s fear of failure; maybe it’s just an uptight program right now; maybe it’s none of those things and Texas is simply playing down to its competition.

But for a program that spoke about its improved chemistry and did all the right things this offseason and preseason, the results haven’t shown. At times, Texas has played aggressively, freely, and passionately. After all, Herman and his staff preach planting and going; if a player screws up an assignment or a technique, they’ll fix it.

You see it in flashes, like P.J. Locke firing into a ballcarrier like he was shot out of a cannon and Daniel Young trucking a defender to put a game on ice. For every flash, though, comes a look of disbelief after a missed play; or a timid step to watch a play slip away; or a struggle to make something that should be fluid and easy look clunky or difficult; or an aggressive play to be made turned down in favor of the safer option.

The final whistle has now twice revealed the same thing: the Longhorns are making football and winning games far more difficult than they should be, and they’re carrying more than their shoulder pads and helmets with them on the field. We can critique and debate scheme endlessly, and, unfortunately for Texas and its fans, there’s plenty to debate. All that stuff matters. But against two inferior opponents and two of the worst teams Texas will play this season, the opposition was more aggressive, more energetic, more confident, and mentally tougher. That must change. Will an increase in competition and name recognition spark that change? Herman and Texas better hope so.

2) Speaking of scheme and watching games again, if Texas is going to remain reluctant to throw the football down the field, it needs to do much more of what it did late in the game against Tulsa consistently.

With Sam Ehlinger, the Longhorns need to incorporate the quarterback’s running ability more whether it’s QB-designed runs (Ehlinger’s reads on zone read-type plays haven’t been consistent), instruction to tuck and run against dropped coverage (more on that in a little bit). They also need to try to punish teams in the run game with the help of the lead blocker when they do have numbers in their favor. Hell, maybe just in general too to get teams out of three-man or soft fronts. It looked like the Longhorns used more run pass options later, and had some success getting the ball outside to Lil’ Jordan Humphrey and snapping it to him directly (you can do that more than once a game, Texas).

If this is going to be an offense that depends more on stringing plays together instead of attempting to create explosive ones, it needs to increase how much it runs its QB, its effectiveness rushing the ball, and how it keeps its best position group on offense, its receivers, involved and able to make plays. Throwing Collin Johnson a shallow drag route while expecting blockers down field to be able to time the reception to then set up their blocks isn’t a good way of doing that.

While we’re on this subject, if this is an offense coached by Norman Dale with an intent to pass the ball around a bunch before it actually tries to score, shouldn’t that offense incorporate more designed (forced) QB run plays? Because if not, is it using its quarterbacks correctly?

3) Through two games, it seems defenses are going to drop coverage against Texas, use a lot of three-man fronts, and force Ehlinger to sit in the pocket and beat them or force Texas to run the ball effectively on a consistent basis. And those were two defenses that are significantly worse than the next two Texas will see.

4) You want to know the strange thing in all of this? Of course, you want to know the strange thing in all of this.

Texas can get better, and its next three games are all winnable. It’s possible what we’ve seen from the Longhorns during the first two weeks is their floor, and an increase in competition brings out a better team. Of course, it’s also possible all your fears created by the first two weeks come through. Soon, we’ll know, and probably after the clock hits zero Saturday night.

5) USC and Texas seem to be mirror images of each other – both teams are better, probably much better, on defense than on offense, and both have unproven quarterback play. USC's best player might be a true freshman, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown I’m leaning towards the home team in an ugly, low-scoring contest as long as that home team can make sure special teams and field position are even at worst.

Believe it or not…

6) Some were perplexed by Texas, at home, being three-point favorites against USC. According to the updated S&P+ overall rankings, Texas is actually a better team right now than USC. The Longhorns check in at No. 42, moving up eight spots, while USC slid down to No. 48.

Updated S&P+ rankings

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7) The Longhorns landed their first commitment for the 2019 class today when Elkins guard Donovan Williams announced his decision on Twitter. If Texas could add Will Baker to that list by November, it would guarantee a successful 2019 class for Shaka Smart and his staff. Williams can do a bit of everything, but profiles as a future wing that should team with Gerald Liddell to give the Longhorns a presence at that position they haven’t had for some time.

8) For the first time at Texas, Shaka Smart won’t have a dominating shot-blocking big man to anchor a defense. Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh, Jarrett Allen, and Mohamed Bamba all provided an intimidating presence in the paint with elite size, length, and shot-swatting ability.

While Jericho Sims (2.1 block percentage in Big 12 play, which ranked No. 24) does present some of that ability, he’s not going to block shots like those players. And the Longhorns can’t afford for Sims to be in foul trouble. Jaxson Hayes could fit the mold of those frontcourt players of years past mentioned above, but he’s probably not going to play heavy minutes this season.

So, how will Texas play defense in 2018-19? Under Smart, the Longhorns have improved every season in adjusted defensive efficiency, and finished No. 12 nationally last year. There isn’t a Bamba lurking in the half-court this time, which could lead to different approach to defense. Specifically, we could see the Longhorns dedicate themselves to doubling the post often and using their length, speed, and athleticism around the perimeter to create problems for the opposition. Texas is probably going to use more full-court pressure this season, but it’s never going to be used as often as Smart did at VCU. However, the Longhorns could create a similar approach in the half-court by constantly doubling the ball whenever it gets into the low post.

Since the Longhorns should have the best depth they’ve had since Smart arrived, they’d be wise to encourage the guards and wings to want to fly around, trap the ball, double the post, and try to create turnovers or uncomfortable offense for the opposition in order to get out and run.

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9) This week, the Texas pitchers began bullpens for the first time this offseason, and it’s safe to say freshman Ty Madden is already creating some buzz. Another freshman that hasn’t been mentioned as much but evidently is making a lot of people excited is Owen Meaney, a 6-5 righty from St. Thomas that was once a LSU commitment.

More important than freshmen tidbits could be these two things: Donny Diaz is throwing bullpens, and junior righthander Blair Henley is impressing with his demeanor and approach following positive reviews in the Cape Cod League.

10) Big 12 Power Poll after week two

Oklahoma
TCU
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Texas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Baylor
Kansas

Not much changed in week two… Oklahoma still looks like the clear class in the league after beating UCLA, 49-21. How will the Sooners handle the loss of Rodney Anderson, though? Trey Sermon helps, but Anderson will be missed. Shawn Robinson was up-and-down against SMU, but the TCU defense was dominant. How much of TCU’s slow start, before hammering SMU by 30, was about the wet conditions and how much of it was about its actual ability? We’ll find out this weekend when it hosts Ohio State. West Virginia drilled a nobody and all Oklahoma State has played are nobodies. Cowboys will get tested this week.

Some Longhorns fans might look at their team’s placement with confusion, but he league doesn’t appear to be in a good place right now. After needing a fourth-quarter comeback to beat South Dakota, Kansas State was never in its game at home against Mississippi State. Following a loss to Ole Miss, Texas Tech drilled Lamar 77-0, but questions about Red Raiders remain. Iowa State scored just three points in a loss to Iowa. Baylor beat UTSA 37-20. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the week came when Kansas beat Central Michigan on the road, 31-7.

11) If I had an AP vote… College Football top 10 after week two

Alabama
Georgia
Clemson
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Washington
Notre Dame

--- Clemson’s defense looked surprisingly less-than-dominant at Texas A&M, but I do believe Jimbo Fisher and Kellen Mond deserve a lot of credit for that. Fisher showed why he was able to win a national title at FSU, and used one of his favorite moves when playing a team like Clemson that has more talent – limit possessions, use the clock, hope you’re in position in the fourth quarter to steal the game, get the most out of your QB.

--- Georgia and Alabama’s physicality and talent level appear to be unmatched right now. At South Carolina, Georgia didn’t start the game particularly well, but was still able to bury its opponent with a 21-point third quarter.

--- Following a win at home versus Michigan, Notre Dame flirted with disaster at home against Ball State thanks to three interceptions by Brandon Wimbush. The game probably wasn’t as close as the score (26-14) indicated, but Wimbush’s throwing ability was a question mark heading into the season.

--- So far, Herm Edwards is making a lot of people, myself included, look foolish. His Sun Devils upset Michigan State, and are now 2-0. Meanwhile, Michigan State is a surprising mess, especially for those idiots that thought they could be a playoff team… yeah… I know.

--- Remember Bryan Harsin? He’s turned out to be pretty dang good, and delivered one of the biggest beatdowns on an opponent I’ve ever seen in college football. Look at these stats:



Per SB Nation, that’s the largest difference in yardage gap in a college game since 2000. Somewhere in the stands, people screamed, “Throw the damn towel!” after Boise State needed just 15 plays to score FIVE touchdowns against UCONN.

12) Some week three picks…

(Note: I didn’t publish any week two picks because, well, there weren’t many good games. Week one results: 3-1 ATS)

No. 12 LSU (+10) at No. 7 Auburn (2:30 p.m. on CBS) – The LSU defense is for real, and I like what I’ve seen from Joe Burrow thus far. I’m not ballsy enough to pick an outright LSU win, although I think it’s a sexy underdog ML bet; but I do think 10 points is too big. Take the plus-10 with the road Tigers.

No. 17 Boise State (+2.5) at No. 24 Oklahoma State (2:30 p.m. on ESPN) – Did you see the stats I posted above of Boise State’s thrashing of UCONN? I’m not picking against the Broncos. In fact, I think they leave Stillwater with a win.

No. 4 Ohio State (-13.5) at No. 15 TCU (7:00 p.m. on ABC) – While I do think TCU keeps this game close, Ohio State has too much firepower and talent. This looks like a situation when Ohio State covers late to leave with the road win.

UPSET ALERT: Why is Miami playing at Toledo? I honestly don’t know, but I do know the Hurricanes are on upset alert. Toledo is actually ahead of Miami in the S&P+ overall ranks, but is a 10.5-point underdog at home.

12)

I don’t know if Jacob deGrom will win the Cy Young award. He should. He’s been the best pitcher in the National League, and there is some distance between him and the next guy. There’s a bigger battle for deGrom to win, though – putting the value of the win out of its misery.

deGrom is 8-9. Yes, you read that right. He broke an 108-year old record by pitching 26 consecutive starts with three earned runs or fewer and yet he’s 8-9 despite at 1.71 ERA, which is backed by a 2.06 FIP and the fifth-best K-BB percentage in baseball. Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito and his 5.76 ERA and 5.22 FIP is 10-10 with the White Sox. Somehow, Giolito, who actually has a negative fWAR this season, has two more wins than deGrom.

If that doesn’t put the win statistic into proper context for you, nothing ever will.

13) As it showed against the Astros in a recent weekend series at Fenway, the Red Sox bullpen remains a massive concern as postseason baseball nears. If the Red Sox don’t reach the World Series, it’ll be because of their bullpen, which will lead to an endless amount of questioning for Dave Dombrowski because Boston’s bullpen hasn’t been a strength for nearly the entire season.

14) Derek Carr played scared on Monday Night. I can’t recall every seeing such an established quarterback with his resume ever playing so poorly and so timidly. He wanted nothing to do with sitting in a pocket or delivering a football in a big moment; it looked like he has some sort of mental yips.

Meanwhile across the league, young quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes looked like the real deal. Kansas City’s offense looked like it could be the best in the NFL.

15) It’s going to be a long year, Cowboys fans. A very long year.


16) I couldn’t resist the urge. I had to try the key lime flavor of La Croix, and it was solid. I give it a 6.8 out of 10. Best La Croix flavors, among those I’ve tasted, ranked:

Orange
Grapefruit (pamplemousse)
Tangerine
Lemon
Lime
Key Lime

gigantic gap

Coconut
Cran-rasperry

17)

18) Finally watched Isle of Dogs recently, and enjoyed it way more than I thought I would. The way the story flowed and was produced created a brilliant flow despite its unique storyline and idea.

The Deuce made its return for season two on HBO, and if I hadn’t watched The Wire already, I would have been a little disappointed with the first episode. But The Wire style was again present, and it’s all building towards each story being intertwined even more than they already are.

19) Really had a great time at the OB Tailgate this past weekend, and enjoyed meeting so many members and putting faces to names. Awesome to see this community come together. If you’re heading to the USC game, make a point to stop by.

20) From the New Yorker years ago, A love story, and a loss on 9/11: The Real Heroes are Dead
 
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