All right! All right! All right!
Look, I know Texas has done nothing to deserve a first-place vote. But it did happen, and it made me wonder just how Texas compared to the CFB Playoff teams of 2021. Just how far in what areas would Texas need to improve to reach that level? So, I looked at a lot of data and generated a lot of averages.
The first thing to remember is that you do not win championships by calculating or striving for averages. Statistics can be very misleading, especially when based on a limited number of data points. Statistics can be an interesting thing to examine but be careful to make sure that you understand what you are looking at – torture numbers enough and they will confess to anything.
In football if you want to win championships, you should plan to excel in some area enough to skew the averages. As well, it is critical that you not fail in any area enough to skew averages too far the other way.
But this is again anecdotal data. Anecdotal data that is largely meaningless. Hopefully a fun exercise, but meaningless once the first guy gets punched in the face.
Still, it is the pre-season. Practice reports rule the day, and the orange Kool-aide flows freely. Why not ask if Texas can win a National Championship. Apparently, at least one coach in America believes that it is possible. How could Orangebloods doubt?
So, with those thoughts in mind, I compared the University of Texas football statistics from 2021 to the four teams in the college football playoff, both individually and against the averages generated by the results from the other four teams. In some categories Texas compared surprisingly well. But there were a few that would suggest a need for serious improvement before planning any trips to L.A. in January.
I frequently see buy or sell type questions in a form that resemble “if Ewers passes for 3,000 yards then Texas will”… - So, I start with some statistics reflecting final four averages in a few top line categories. What do championship numbers look like?
Obviously, scoring defense is a priority of the highest order. How to accomplish that is a sausage making conversation. There are many different types of sausage and many different recipes. We all have a favorite type of sausage but later we will look at the recipe used by the most successful teams. For now, just note this..
I am surprised to see that Texas is further below average in passing yards per game than in passing yards allowed per game. That is largely explained, I think, by seeing that the Texas rushing game was above average – even compared to the teams in the CFB Playoff.
Still, it is the rushing defense that stands out here as a clear area of concern. An average more than two yards per carry worse than the top teams must be addressed before Texas can live up to that number one vote.
The average yards per passing attempt and passer rating are also out of line. But those should be much easier addressed if 3rd and 6 is not considered a rushing down by opponents.
That is all interesting from a big picture perspective. However, there are other places to look for more a more complete view of what Texas needs to accomplish in order to be worthy of that top vote.
In 2021 Texas generated a sack for every 14 opponent passing attempts while the elite teams of the season generated a sack every 10.6 passing attempts. With an average of 28.8 passing attempts by opponents that equals almost three more sacks per game.
Texas quarterbacks were sacked every 12.8 passing attempts while the CFB Playoff teams average allowing a sack only every 20.7 passing attempts.
Clearly protecting the quarterback and getting the opposing quarterback on the ground are also issues to address before earning that number one vote. But it doesn’t stop there.
Impact to the passing game is not limited to defensive backs or sacks. The passing game is most often impacted by getting pressure on the QB. By creating rushed throws and limiting the time available for WRs to get separation.
In 2021 Texas QBs were under pressure much more frequently than the elite teams. Every 9.35 passing attempts vs every 15.59. Even worse opposing QBs were pressured by Texas defenders at a rate barely half of the top four average, every 15.71 passing attempts compared to every 8.96.
The result? In 2021 Texas lost possession due to an interception every 34.6 passing attempts. The top four averaged an interception only every 50.96 passing attempts. The Texas defense created an interception every 53.86 passing attempts while the CFB Playoff teams averaged every 35.42. QB pressure is a major reason for this variance.
Games are won and lost at the LOS and the failure by Texas in that area is an obvious cause for a 5-7 record.
There were a few areas in which Texas was competitive with the most successful teams of 2021.
So, there are some areas in which Texas was relatively successful. Despite issues Texas scored points at rate near the most successful teams of 2021. Even if they did tend to fade in the second half. The rushing game was solid. 3rd down and red zone conversions were a plus. The special teams had some positives but remember that Dicker the Kicker is gone in 2022. I was surprised by the penalties per game statistics.
Largely the factors keeping Texas from being elite still centered around controlling the LOS. Duh. But hopefully interesting.
There was one other thing I wanted to be sure to review during this evaluation. That was around explosive plays. I looked at data for explosive plays at cfbstats.com. But I found that it didn’t always seem to…well, add up. Maybe I just don’t understand how the data was complied. I know that with their, at least consistent method, Texas fell short of elite performance by about one play per game. I just wasn’t sure that the data was accurate.
I looked through the Texas game logs to at least get accurate data for one team. The result was very different from how I read the cfbstats.com data. But that was not my takeaway. This was what I found…
I cannot convince myself to blame to collapse of the Texas 2021 football season on Cotton Bowl injuries to a QB and WR. Guys need to step up. Coaches need to step up. Adjustments need to be made if necessary. Still, I can see what happened to the Texas offense starting with the second half of the OU game.
Just two or three additional first downs might have been the difference in several games in 2021. Just one big play… Or maybe not. Honestly, I expected the difference to be larger than this. The Kansas game significantly helps the second half stats. But Arkansas is in the first half to kind of balance that impact.
We can’t know how it would have played out. Regardless, there was a significant drop in explosive plays that coincided with a six-game losing streak. In order to be elite Texas has to have the depth to withstand injuries.
Any hope for Texas being elite requires not just a statistically strong scoring average but a consistently explosive offense.
In the beginning I said that in order to be elite it would be necessary to excel in some area enough to skew the averages. Let's take a look at Alabama since that is the next big game for Texas..
Of all five teams examined Alabama had the lowest average yards per rushing attempt at 4.11. Still not low enough to offset their wild success in the passing game. They actually threw the ball on 51% of their plays from scrimmage while rarely throwing interceptions. They stopped the run and frequently made tackles for negative yardage.
This is not the only sausage recipe that could win. But it is a good reference point when considering how close Texas is, or is not, to deserving a first-place vote.
I'm just happy to be comparing Texas to elite football teams.....I think.
Look, I know Texas has done nothing to deserve a first-place vote. But it did happen, and it made me wonder just how Texas compared to the CFB Playoff teams of 2021. Just how far in what areas would Texas need to improve to reach that level? So, I looked at a lot of data and generated a lot of averages.
The first thing to remember is that you do not win championships by calculating or striving for averages. Statistics can be very misleading, especially when based on a limited number of data points. Statistics can be an interesting thing to examine but be careful to make sure that you understand what you are looking at – torture numbers enough and they will confess to anything.
In football if you want to win championships, you should plan to excel in some area enough to skew the averages. As well, it is critical that you not fail in any area enough to skew averages too far the other way.
But this is again anecdotal data. Anecdotal data that is largely meaningless. Hopefully a fun exercise, but meaningless once the first guy gets punched in the face.
Still, it is the pre-season. Practice reports rule the day, and the orange Kool-aide flows freely. Why not ask if Texas can win a National Championship. Apparently, at least one coach in America believes that it is possible. How could Orangebloods doubt?
So, with those thoughts in mind, I compared the University of Texas football statistics from 2021 to the four teams in the college football playoff, both individually and against the averages generated by the results from the other four teams. In some categories Texas compared surprisingly well. But there were a few that would suggest a need for serious improvement before planning any trips to L.A. in January.
I frequently see buy or sell type questions in a form that resemble “if Ewers passes for 3,000 yards then Texas will”… - So, I start with some statistics reflecting final four averages in a few top line categories. What do championship numbers look like?
Category | Texas 2021 | 2021 CFB Playoff Team Average |
| Scoring | 35.3 | 37.8 |
| PPG Allowed | 31.1 | 16.2 |
| Total Passing Yards | 2705 | 3858 |
| Total Passing Yards Allowed | 2688 | 2835 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 225.4 | 265.0 |
| Passing Yards Per Game Allowed | 224.0 | 195.19 |
| Passing Yards Per Attempt | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| Passing Yards Per Attempt Allowed | 7.13 | 6.14 |
| Total Rushing Yards | 2391 | 2634 |
| Total Rushing Yards Allowed | 2419 | 1583 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 199.55 | 182.02 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed | 201.58 | 110.11 |
| Rushing Yards Per Carry | 5.23 | 4.95 |
| Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed | 5.15 | 3.11 |
| Passer Rating | 150.27 | 159.20 |
| Passer Rating Allowed | 137.83 | 114.42 |
Obviously, scoring defense is a priority of the highest order. How to accomplish that is a sausage making conversation. There are many different types of sausage and many different recipes. We all have a favorite type of sausage but later we will look at the recipe used by the most successful teams. For now, just note this..
- Of the past 22 National Champions only three have averaged more than 20 points per game allowed. The 22-year average for National Champions is 15 PPG, less than half of 2021 Texas. The last 10 National Champions PPG allowed averages are…
- 10.2 (Georgia)
- 19.4 (Alabama)
- 21.9 (LSU)
- 13.1 (Clemson)
- 11.9 (Alabama)
- 18.0 (Clemson)
- 15.1 (Alabama)
- 22.0 (Ohio State)
- 12.1 (Florida State)
- 10.9 (Alabama)
I am surprised to see that Texas is further below average in passing yards per game than in passing yards allowed per game. That is largely explained, I think, by seeing that the Texas rushing game was above average – even compared to the teams in the CFB Playoff.
Still, it is the rushing defense that stands out here as a clear area of concern. An average more than two yards per carry worse than the top teams must be addressed before Texas can live up to that number one vote.
The average yards per passing attempt and passer rating are also out of line. But those should be much easier addressed if 3rd and 6 is not considered a rushing down by opponents.
That is all interesting from a big picture perspective. However, there are other places to look for more a more complete view of what Texas needs to accomplish in order to be worthy of that top vote.
Category | Texas 2021 | 2021 CFB Playoff Team Average |
Defensive Sacks Per Passing Attempt | 14.0 | 10.6 |
Sacks Per Passing Attempt Allowed | 12.8 | 20.7 |
Defensive Tackles for Loss Per Game | 6.0 | 6.8 |
Tackles for Loss Allowed Per Game | 5.3 | 4.2 |
In 2021 Texas generated a sack for every 14 opponent passing attempts while the elite teams of the season generated a sack every 10.6 passing attempts. With an average of 28.8 passing attempts by opponents that equals almost three more sacks per game.
Texas quarterbacks were sacked every 12.8 passing attempts while the CFB Playoff teams average allowing a sack only every 20.7 passing attempts.
Clearly protecting the quarterback and getting the opposing quarterback on the ground are also issues to address before earning that number one vote. But it doesn’t stop there.
Category | Texas 2021 | 2021 CFB Playoff Team Average |
Quarterback Hurries Allowed Per Passing Attempt | 9.35 | 15.59 |
Defensive Quarterback Hurries Per Passing Attempt | 15.71 | 8.96 |
Interceptions Allowed Per Passing Attempt | 34.6 | 50.96 |
Defensive Interceptions Created Per Passing Attempt | 53.86 | 35.42 |
Impact to the passing game is not limited to defensive backs or sacks. The passing game is most often impacted by getting pressure on the QB. By creating rushed throws and limiting the time available for WRs to get separation.
In 2021 Texas QBs were under pressure much more frequently than the elite teams. Every 9.35 passing attempts vs every 15.59. Even worse opposing QBs were pressured by Texas defenders at a rate barely half of the top four average, every 15.71 passing attempts compared to every 8.96.
The result? In 2021 Texas lost possession due to an interception every 34.6 passing attempts. The top four averaged an interception only every 50.96 passing attempts. The Texas defense created an interception every 53.86 passing attempts while the CFB Playoff teams averaged every 35.42. QB pressure is a major reason for this variance.
Games are won and lost at the LOS and the failure by Texas in that area is an obvious cause for a 5-7 record.
There were a few areas in which Texas was competitive with the most successful teams of 2021.
Category | Texas 2021 | 2021 CFB Playoff Team Average |
Scoring | 35.3 | 37.8 |
Rushing Yards Per Game | 199.25 | 182.02 |
Rushing Yards Per Carry | 5.23 | 4.95 |
3rd Down Conversion Percentage | 44.03 | 45.64 |
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage | 74.47 | 64.10 |
Average Punt Return | 10.89 | 9.64 |
Average Punt Return Allowed | 2.86 | 5.49 |
Average Punt Distance | 45.63 | 43.03 |
Penalties Per Game | 5.75 | 6.08 |
So, there are some areas in which Texas was relatively successful. Despite issues Texas scored points at rate near the most successful teams of 2021. Even if they did tend to fade in the second half. The rushing game was solid. 3rd down and red zone conversions were a plus. The special teams had some positives but remember that Dicker the Kicker is gone in 2022. I was surprised by the penalties per game statistics.
Largely the factors keeping Texas from being elite still centered around controlling the LOS. Duh. But hopefully interesting.
There was one other thing I wanted to be sure to review during this evaluation. That was around explosive plays. I looked at data for explosive plays at cfbstats.com. But I found that it didn’t always seem to…well, add up. Maybe I just don’t understand how the data was complied. I know that with their, at least consistent method, Texas fell short of elite performance by about one play per game. I just wasn’t sure that the data was accurate.
I looked through the Texas game logs to at least get accurate data for one team. The result was very different from how I read the cfbstats.com data. But that was not my takeaway. This was what I found…
| Explosive Plays | Per Game Through OU 1st Half | Per Game After OU 2nd Half |
| 10 - 19 Yards | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| 20 - 29 Yards | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 30 -39 Yards | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 40+ Yards | 0.36 | 0.19 |
I cannot convince myself to blame to collapse of the Texas 2021 football season on Cotton Bowl injuries to a QB and WR. Guys need to step up. Coaches need to step up. Adjustments need to be made if necessary. Still, I can see what happened to the Texas offense starting with the second half of the OU game.
Just two or three additional first downs might have been the difference in several games in 2021. Just one big play… Or maybe not. Honestly, I expected the difference to be larger than this. The Kansas game significantly helps the second half stats. But Arkansas is in the first half to kind of balance that impact.
We can’t know how it would have played out. Regardless, there was a significant drop in explosive plays that coincided with a six-game losing streak. In order to be elite Texas has to have the depth to withstand injuries.
Any hope for Texas being elite requires not just a statistically strong scoring average but a consistently explosive offense.
In the beginning I said that in order to be elite it would be necessary to excel in some area enough to skew the averages. Let's take a look at Alabama since that is the next big game for Texas..
Category | 2021 CFB Playoff Team Average | Alabama 2021 |
Passing Yards Per Game | 265.0 | 338.2 |
3rd Down Conversion Percentage | 45.64 | 52.02 |
Passing Attempts Per Interception Allowed | 50.96 | 81.57 |
Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed | 110.11 | 86.0 |
Tackles for Loss Per Game | 6.77 | 8.07 |
Passing Play Percentage | 45.21 | 51.03 |
Of all five teams examined Alabama had the lowest average yards per rushing attempt at 4.11. Still not low enough to offset their wild success in the passing game. They actually threw the ball on 51% of their plays from scrimmage while rarely throwing interceptions. They stopped the run and frequently made tackles for negative yardage.
This is not the only sausage recipe that could win. But it is a good reference point when considering how close Texas is, or is not, to deserving a first-place vote.
I'm just happy to be comparing Texas to elite football teams.....I think.
