Once again, the 3-2-1 is heavy on recruiting.
Texas suffered a couple setbacks on Monday, but there's still plenty of talent to be had. How might UT finish out?
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction. It's time for this week's edition of the 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Monday night was a hit to UT's recruiting efforts, but not completely unexpected
If you turned off your computer early on Monday evening, you probably missed the late-night news that two of the Longhorns' top recruiting targets - wide receiver Omar Manning and offensive lineman Grant Polley - were both shutting down their recruitments and sticking with their commitments to TCU and Colorado, respectively.
Losing out on Manning, to some, was the bigger surprise because there had been all kinds of speculation that he might flip to Texas. But in looking back at the last month, things have been extremely quiet with him, which usually isn't a good sign, and a person close to Manning told me in the days after his Texas official visit in December that TCU still held the edge. While Texas was said to have "intrigued" the Lancaster standout, the Horned Frogs still held the edge fresh off his UT official visit, which in hindsight, should have been a pretty big sign.
"He likes the Austin area, thought the school was pretty good. I still get the feeling TCU has a hold on him because they have never let up on him," a source at Lancaster said shortly after Manning's UT visit. "First and foremost, hehas to be comfortable with the school. TCU is right around the corner in Fort Worth, so I think he is still leaning a little more to TCU."
Missing out on Manning is a big loss since so many of the Longhorns' other receiving targets have either shut things down or feel like long shots. But his decision to stick with TCU shouldn't have come as a complete shock, even if the timing was a bit of a surprise.
The bigger blow of the night came from Polley, who told Orangebloods.com on Monday night he was officially sticking with Colorado and informed the Rivals CU site that he had informed the Texas coaches of the news.
Less than 36 hours after completing his Texas official visit, the Denton product decided he'd rather go to Colorado than Texas. No two ways about it ... that one stings if you're UT. During his Texas visit, Polley never told any of the other recruits on campus that he was for sure flipping to Texas, but he did seem "excited," per UT OL commitment Derek Kerstetter. Whatever excitement there was, it wore off pretty quickly. Polley sticking with CU wasn't a complete shock but the timing of his decision was out of the blue and a pretty big blow to Texas' recruiting efforts.
2. This class needs to be extremely successful in terms of evaluations
I've mentioned this previously on our podcasts, but this year's Longhorns class has a chance to be very good when we look back on it in a couple years, but it's going to have to be a group that was evaluated extremely well.
The Longhorns have some highly-ranked players in the class and there's still a chance to reel in a couple others - guys like K'Lavon Chaisson and Gary Johnson - but this is not going to be a Texas class with a ton of star power. Gone are the days (for now) when Texas dominates the players at the top of the national recruiting rankings, or even the state recruiting rankings.
In the most recent Lone Star Recruiting rankings, the Longhorns have commitments from three players in the state's top 20 (No. 8 Sam Ehlinger, No. 14 Montrell Estell, No. 20 Toneil Carter). In the Rivals.com rankings, only Ehlinger ranks among the state's top 20 players (although those rankings should update soon).
Recruiting for Texas is a far cry from what the OB veterans are used to from a decade ago, when the Longhorns seemed to reel in the majority of the top 10 players in the state, but I wouldn't hit the panic button just yet.
In looking at the class from 10 years ago, the Longhorns signed an incredible 12 players from the state top 20, but only two from that group (Keenan Robinson and Earl Thomas) would be what I would consider plus-players for Texas, and they were in the bottom half of the top 20 at 13 and 19, respectively.
You always want to land the elite of the elite - the Baron Brownings, Marvin Wilsons, Walker Littles and Jeffrey Okudahs of the world - because those players have a higher hit rate. But there is plenty of value to be found in that second and third tier of players, and if you're a Longhorn fan, you have to be hoping that Tom Herman and his staff will be able to find maximum value in those types of prospects. Normally, at a school that historically recruits as well as Texas does, those three-star and low four-star recruits can get lost in the shuffle and they may not have always been evaluated as thoroughly as the higher-ranked prospects, but that should not be the case this year.
This current staff has been recruiting and evaluating most of these players for more than a year and the coaches have been selective about which targets they've gone after (including a small handful of Houston commitments). There's reason to believe that the homework done on the current targets could pay off in a couple years, which could still make this a very successful class despite the lack of "star power" that Texas fans are accustomed to seeing.
3. This year's recruiting, under a new staff, was going to be an uphill battle all along
Any time there's a coaching change, there's some thought that a school will get some sort of recruiting momentum because people are excited about what the future might hold. Most of us fell into that trap, to some degree, with this year's Texas class, but barring a hire of someone with a last name like Saban or Meyer, it probably was never realistic to expect Texas to experience some late kick to the finish line of the recruiting season that included landing the top handful of players in the state.
Tom Herman has an impressive head-coaching resume from his time at Houston and while recruits are aware of what he accomplished, Herman is still a young coach who has a lot to prove, especially at a program like Texas. After three consecutive losing seasons on Charlie Strong's watch, most highly-ranked prospect in the state have expressed confidence in Herman getting things turned around, but they're taking a wait-and-see approach.
Recruiting, boiled down to its essentials, still revolves around winning and building relationships. Texas could sell the hope of winning in the first couple years under Strong, but three straight subpar seasons makes that pitch irrelevant with this year's recruits. The current staff has done a good job of maximizing relationships with the players it had recruited while at Houston, but there simply wasn't enough time to win over the truly elite prospects on UT's board, especially with the way the previous staff had put recruiting on the far back burner for several months prior to its dismissal.
Texas should close out with a solid class, but the real evaluation of the current staff's recruiting efforts will not be accurate until the 2018 group.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What will it take to get Texas back to recruiting with the nationally elite?
This one's really pretty simple ... players want to compete for championships and if Texas is going to start recruiting with the best of the best, the Longhorns need to start stacking together a bunch of wins. Truth be told, it will probably take successful seasons in consecutive years for the Longhorns to go toe to toe with the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and even Oklahoma.
If you glance at the updated Rivals100, nine of the top 10 players in the country have already committed. Four schools make up eight of those nine commitments (Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Stanford). Looking at the top 20, it's more of the same, with a total of 8 schools having secured commitments from the 19 players who have given verbal pledges ... and again, the overwhelming majority are committed to schools that are competing for conference or even national championships.
In order for Texas to get into those conversations, the Longhorns will have to overcome one hurdle that is playing in the Big 12. As fun as football can be to watch in the current state of the Big 12, it doesn't have the pull of conferences like the SEC or Big 10 (case in point ... the Big 12 has one commitment from a player ranked in the top 50), but Texas has enough national recognition that it can overcome the conference obstacle that is the Big 12 if it can start winning games.
Charlie Strong did a good job of building a foundation of talent, but his lack of ability to transfer that talent into wins has really killed Texas' national reputation among elite recruits. At the risk of oversimplifying things, the only way that changes is if Herman and staff get things trending in a positive direction with wins on the field. Everything else, including relationships, is a distant second.
2. How are things looking in recruiting for each position?
Let's go through things, position by position.
QB - 1 commitment (Sam Ehlinger); no more needed
RB - 2 commitments (Toneil Carter, Daniel Young); no more needed
WR - 1 commitment (Damion Miller); one or two more needed
Texas is in a tough spot here. Omar Manning is sticking with TCU. Charleston Rambo is a slight possibility but not likely. CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Reagor don't appear to have much interest. Trestan Ebner was a maybe to visit this weekend, but he's now off the board with a Baylor commitment. Jordan Pouncey will visit this weekend, but Texas will have to blow him away since in-state school Miami is considered the clear leader. This staff always seems to have a plan, but it's going to be tough to get another commitment, much less two, unless the coaches dig deep into their bag of tricks. Georgetown wide receiver Beau Corrales (North Carolina commitment) has had minimal contact with Derek Warehime and Drew Mehringer, so we'll have to see if that changes.
TE - 2 commitments (Reese Leitao, Cade Brewer); no more needed
OL - 1 commitment (Derek Kerstetter); one or two more needed
Missing out on Grant Polley is a big blow. New offer Stephan Zabie becomes a priority, and the Longhorns would figure to have a good chance to overtake the other programs that have been on Zabie for longer, including Oklahoma. Texas could circle back on Houston commitments Dennis Bardwell or Samuel Cosmi, and Warehime may check in on some under-the-radar in-state prospects to gauge their interest.
DL - 1 commitment (Taquon Graham); two or three more needed
Holding on to Graham's commitment is a top priority, as is finding a couple more bodies who can play on the interior or at end. K'Lavon Chaisson will pick either Texas or LSU, and I still think he winds up in Austin if his official visit goes well this weekend. JUCO product Larrell Murchison is a bit of a combo DE/DT who could figure into the plans if Texas can pry him away from Ole Miss, which won't be easy. JUCO DT Jamari Chisolm feels like he's there for the taking but Texas hasn't offered yet. Bryan Jones will visit on January 27, which will give Texas a really good idea of where it stands with some other players. DT Joshua Rogers told us last week he was trying to set up a midweek visit to UT and he could figure in here if Texas offers. Fort Worth All Saints defensive end Max Cummins, who has picked up a lot of steam of late, is expected to visit UT this weekend so he's another worth watching closely. Ryan Johnson is expected to take a UT visit but that one feels like a longshot with in-state programs Alabama and Auburn also in pursuit.
LB - 1 commitment (Marqez Bimmage); 1 more needed
Chaisson could figure in here push comes to shove, but all eyes are on JUCO product Gary Johnson, who visited UT last weekend and will announce his final decision on National Signing Day. Johnson, along with Chaisson, are the two biggest targets left on UT's board.
DB - 3 commitments (Kobe Boyce, Josh Thompson, Montrell Estell); 1 or 2 more needed
Texas hosted Chevin Calloway last weekend and the Longhorns have put themselves on even footing with Arkansas. Javelin Guidry will visit Texas and that one should go UT's way if the staff pushes for him. Amik Robertson is scheduled to visit UT this weekend but the recent offer from LSU could throw a wrench into that one. Keep an eye on Kary Vincent, who is still committed to LSU but might pop up on UT's campus soon.
Kicker - 1 commitment (Joshua Rowland); no more needed
ONE PREDICTION - The upcoming off-season workouts are going to be tougher than any Texas has experienced in several years
We seem to hear every year that UT's off-season workouts are going to be insanely difficult, and we definitely hear it whenever there's a coaching change or change in the strength and conditioning program. Pat Moorer's programs under Charlie Strong were extremely difficult in both the workouts themselves and the early morning wake-up calls. There's really no tangible way to judge what the Texas players will experience in the upcoming weeks, but if there's any truth to the talk behind the scenes, they're about to go through a program that will test them both physically and mentally in the couple months leading up to spring ball. The work put in to transform players' bodies is obviously important, but I'd wager that the mental work will be more critical to the team's chances of success.
Texas suffered a couple setbacks on Monday, but there's still plenty of talent to be had. How might UT finish out?
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction. It's time for this week's edition of the 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Monday night was a hit to UT's recruiting efforts, but not completely unexpected
If you turned off your computer early on Monday evening, you probably missed the late-night news that two of the Longhorns' top recruiting targets - wide receiver Omar Manning and offensive lineman Grant Polley - were both shutting down their recruitments and sticking with their commitments to TCU and Colorado, respectively.
Losing out on Manning, to some, was the bigger surprise because there had been all kinds of speculation that he might flip to Texas. But in looking back at the last month, things have been extremely quiet with him, which usually isn't a good sign, and a person close to Manning told me in the days after his Texas official visit in December that TCU still held the edge. While Texas was said to have "intrigued" the Lancaster standout, the Horned Frogs still held the edge fresh off his UT official visit, which in hindsight, should have been a pretty big sign.
"He likes the Austin area, thought the school was pretty good. I still get the feeling TCU has a hold on him because they have never let up on him," a source at Lancaster said shortly after Manning's UT visit. "First and foremost, hehas to be comfortable with the school. TCU is right around the corner in Fort Worth, so I think he is still leaning a little more to TCU."
Missing out on Manning is a big loss since so many of the Longhorns' other receiving targets have either shut things down or feel like long shots. But his decision to stick with TCU shouldn't have come as a complete shock, even if the timing was a bit of a surprise.
The bigger blow of the night came from Polley, who told Orangebloods.com on Monday night he was officially sticking with Colorado and informed the Rivals CU site that he had informed the Texas coaches of the news.
Less than 36 hours after completing his Texas official visit, the Denton product decided he'd rather go to Colorado than Texas. No two ways about it ... that one stings if you're UT. During his Texas visit, Polley never told any of the other recruits on campus that he was for sure flipping to Texas, but he did seem "excited," per UT OL commitment Derek Kerstetter. Whatever excitement there was, it wore off pretty quickly. Polley sticking with CU wasn't a complete shock but the timing of his decision was out of the blue and a pretty big blow to Texas' recruiting efforts.
2. This class needs to be extremely successful in terms of evaluations
I've mentioned this previously on our podcasts, but this year's Longhorns class has a chance to be very good when we look back on it in a couple years, but it's going to have to be a group that was evaluated extremely well.
The Longhorns have some highly-ranked players in the class and there's still a chance to reel in a couple others - guys like K'Lavon Chaisson and Gary Johnson - but this is not going to be a Texas class with a ton of star power. Gone are the days (for now) when Texas dominates the players at the top of the national recruiting rankings, or even the state recruiting rankings.
In the most recent Lone Star Recruiting rankings, the Longhorns have commitments from three players in the state's top 20 (No. 8 Sam Ehlinger, No. 14 Montrell Estell, No. 20 Toneil Carter). In the Rivals.com rankings, only Ehlinger ranks among the state's top 20 players (although those rankings should update soon).
Recruiting for Texas is a far cry from what the OB veterans are used to from a decade ago, when the Longhorns seemed to reel in the majority of the top 10 players in the state, but I wouldn't hit the panic button just yet.
In looking at the class from 10 years ago, the Longhorns signed an incredible 12 players from the state top 20, but only two from that group (Keenan Robinson and Earl Thomas) would be what I would consider plus-players for Texas, and they were in the bottom half of the top 20 at 13 and 19, respectively.
You always want to land the elite of the elite - the Baron Brownings, Marvin Wilsons, Walker Littles and Jeffrey Okudahs of the world - because those players have a higher hit rate. But there is plenty of value to be found in that second and third tier of players, and if you're a Longhorn fan, you have to be hoping that Tom Herman and his staff will be able to find maximum value in those types of prospects. Normally, at a school that historically recruits as well as Texas does, those three-star and low four-star recruits can get lost in the shuffle and they may not have always been evaluated as thoroughly as the higher-ranked prospects, but that should not be the case this year.
This current staff has been recruiting and evaluating most of these players for more than a year and the coaches have been selective about which targets they've gone after (including a small handful of Houston commitments). There's reason to believe that the homework done on the current targets could pay off in a couple years, which could still make this a very successful class despite the lack of "star power" that Texas fans are accustomed to seeing.
3. This year's recruiting, under a new staff, was going to be an uphill battle all along
Any time there's a coaching change, there's some thought that a school will get some sort of recruiting momentum because people are excited about what the future might hold. Most of us fell into that trap, to some degree, with this year's Texas class, but barring a hire of someone with a last name like Saban or Meyer, it probably was never realistic to expect Texas to experience some late kick to the finish line of the recruiting season that included landing the top handful of players in the state.
Tom Herman has an impressive head-coaching resume from his time at Houston and while recruits are aware of what he accomplished, Herman is still a young coach who has a lot to prove, especially at a program like Texas. After three consecutive losing seasons on Charlie Strong's watch, most highly-ranked prospect in the state have expressed confidence in Herman getting things turned around, but they're taking a wait-and-see approach.
Recruiting, boiled down to its essentials, still revolves around winning and building relationships. Texas could sell the hope of winning in the first couple years under Strong, but three straight subpar seasons makes that pitch irrelevant with this year's recruits. The current staff has done a good job of maximizing relationships with the players it had recruited while at Houston, but there simply wasn't enough time to win over the truly elite prospects on UT's board, especially with the way the previous staff had put recruiting on the far back burner for several months prior to its dismissal.
Texas should close out with a solid class, but the real evaluation of the current staff's recruiting efforts will not be accurate until the 2018 group.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What will it take to get Texas back to recruiting with the nationally elite?
This one's really pretty simple ... players want to compete for championships and if Texas is going to start recruiting with the best of the best, the Longhorns need to start stacking together a bunch of wins. Truth be told, it will probably take successful seasons in consecutive years for the Longhorns to go toe to toe with the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and even Oklahoma.
If you glance at the updated Rivals100, nine of the top 10 players in the country have already committed. Four schools make up eight of those nine commitments (Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Stanford). Looking at the top 20, it's more of the same, with a total of 8 schools having secured commitments from the 19 players who have given verbal pledges ... and again, the overwhelming majority are committed to schools that are competing for conference or even national championships.
In order for Texas to get into those conversations, the Longhorns will have to overcome one hurdle that is playing in the Big 12. As fun as football can be to watch in the current state of the Big 12, it doesn't have the pull of conferences like the SEC or Big 10 (case in point ... the Big 12 has one commitment from a player ranked in the top 50), but Texas has enough national recognition that it can overcome the conference obstacle that is the Big 12 if it can start winning games.
Charlie Strong did a good job of building a foundation of talent, but his lack of ability to transfer that talent into wins has really killed Texas' national reputation among elite recruits. At the risk of oversimplifying things, the only way that changes is if Herman and staff get things trending in a positive direction with wins on the field. Everything else, including relationships, is a distant second.
2. How are things looking in recruiting for each position?
Let's go through things, position by position.
QB - 1 commitment (Sam Ehlinger); no more needed
RB - 2 commitments (Toneil Carter, Daniel Young); no more needed
WR - 1 commitment (Damion Miller); one or two more needed
Texas is in a tough spot here. Omar Manning is sticking with TCU. Charleston Rambo is a slight possibility but not likely. CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Reagor don't appear to have much interest. Trestan Ebner was a maybe to visit this weekend, but he's now off the board with a Baylor commitment. Jordan Pouncey will visit this weekend, but Texas will have to blow him away since in-state school Miami is considered the clear leader. This staff always seems to have a plan, but it's going to be tough to get another commitment, much less two, unless the coaches dig deep into their bag of tricks. Georgetown wide receiver Beau Corrales (North Carolina commitment) has had minimal contact with Derek Warehime and Drew Mehringer, so we'll have to see if that changes.
TE - 2 commitments (Reese Leitao, Cade Brewer); no more needed
OL - 1 commitment (Derek Kerstetter); one or two more needed
Missing out on Grant Polley is a big blow. New offer Stephan Zabie becomes a priority, and the Longhorns would figure to have a good chance to overtake the other programs that have been on Zabie for longer, including Oklahoma. Texas could circle back on Houston commitments Dennis Bardwell or Samuel Cosmi, and Warehime may check in on some under-the-radar in-state prospects to gauge their interest.
DL - 1 commitment (Taquon Graham); two or three more needed
Holding on to Graham's commitment is a top priority, as is finding a couple more bodies who can play on the interior or at end. K'Lavon Chaisson will pick either Texas or LSU, and I still think he winds up in Austin if his official visit goes well this weekend. JUCO product Larrell Murchison is a bit of a combo DE/DT who could figure into the plans if Texas can pry him away from Ole Miss, which won't be easy. JUCO DT Jamari Chisolm feels like he's there for the taking but Texas hasn't offered yet. Bryan Jones will visit on January 27, which will give Texas a really good idea of where it stands with some other players. DT Joshua Rogers told us last week he was trying to set up a midweek visit to UT and he could figure in here if Texas offers. Fort Worth All Saints defensive end Max Cummins, who has picked up a lot of steam of late, is expected to visit UT this weekend so he's another worth watching closely. Ryan Johnson is expected to take a UT visit but that one feels like a longshot with in-state programs Alabama and Auburn also in pursuit.
LB - 1 commitment (Marqez Bimmage); 1 more needed
Chaisson could figure in here push comes to shove, but all eyes are on JUCO product Gary Johnson, who visited UT last weekend and will announce his final decision on National Signing Day. Johnson, along with Chaisson, are the two biggest targets left on UT's board.
DB - 3 commitments (Kobe Boyce, Josh Thompson, Montrell Estell); 1 or 2 more needed
Texas hosted Chevin Calloway last weekend and the Longhorns have put themselves on even footing with Arkansas. Javelin Guidry will visit Texas and that one should go UT's way if the staff pushes for him. Amik Robertson is scheduled to visit UT this weekend but the recent offer from LSU could throw a wrench into that one. Keep an eye on Kary Vincent, who is still committed to LSU but might pop up on UT's campus soon.
Kicker - 1 commitment (Joshua Rowland); no more needed
ONE PREDICTION - The upcoming off-season workouts are going to be tougher than any Texas has experienced in several years
We seem to hear every year that UT's off-season workouts are going to be insanely difficult, and we definitely hear it whenever there's a coaching change or change in the strength and conditioning program. Pat Moorer's programs under Charlie Strong were extremely difficult in both the workouts themselves and the early morning wake-up calls. There's really no tangible way to judge what the Texas players will experience in the upcoming weeks, but if there's any truth to the talk behind the scenes, they're about to go through a program that will test them both physically and mentally in the couple months leading up to spring ball. The work put in to transform players' bodies is obviously important, but I'd wager that the mental work will be more critical to the team's chances of success.
