Texas suffered its third consecutive loss, the defense once again was historically bad and even more doubts have crept in about Charlie Strong's job security.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. It doesn't matter who is calling the defense, Texas is going to struggle
Last week in this column, I said I wasn't expecting any miracle turnaround with the Texas defense just because Charlie Strong had taken over that side of the ball. Going into the OU game, I thought the defense may get a boost of confidence with the defensive shake-up, but it wasn't realistic to turn the defense around in a matter of a week.
I have to admit ... for two quarters of last week's game, I was beginning to think I may have been dead wrong. Texas had given up a large number up yards to Oklahoma, but the Longhorns had yielded just 14 points and overall, it seemed like the defense was more active and tackling better.
Then the third quarter happened.
Oklahoma had four drives that started in that quarter. All four went for touchdowns and they covered a total of 333 yards. You're not going to win many games when your defense has those types of stretches, and for whatever reason, this Texas defense just can't seem to stop the bleeding once it starts.
The Texas defense will likely play better this week against an Iowa State offense that doesn't compare to what UT has faced in the last three games, but plenty of tough games remain after that. After what we witnessed in week one of the "Charlie Strong's defense" era, I think it's completely safe to say that the Longhorns are going to give up a lot of yards and points over the next couple months.
At some point you have to accept that a team, or in this case a particular side of the ball, is exactly what it has put on the résumé, and after five games, it seems clear that this Texas defense has little hope of turning things around. It's a group that lacks confidence, doesn't really have any playmakers right now and makes far too many mistakes in the back end.
Strong taking over the D may have sounded good on the surface, but it looks like there's no saving this group and fans are once again going to suffer through watching one of the worst defenses in the history of Texas football.
2. The freshman class has not lived up to expectations, especially on the lines
After signing one of the country's top overall recruiting classes, and topping it off with four players from Baylor's class, there was talk of this year's group coming in and making an immediate impact at numerous positions. I was as guilty as believing it as anyone, especially if we're talking about defensive line.
Shane Buechele is obviously the most impactful freshman of the class. Malcolm Roach, an unheralded recruit compared to some others, has far exceeded expectations. Beyond that, there have been a play or two here or there for a few other guys, but mostly it's been five games of below average play for those who have touched the field, or five games of zero impact.
Zach Shackelford continues to start at center and while he's done about as well as you could expect for a true freshman, he's struggled some. Collin Johnson was believed to be a star from the moment he stepped on campus, but he hadn't really factored into the offense at all before finally getting involved last week. Brandon Jones has seen some playing time but has had some struggles. Jeffrey McCulloch has earned more work but has been pretty quiet overall. Devin Duvernay finally broke free for a long TD catch against Oklahoma, but has recorded just five receptions overall. Kyle Porter has played quite a bit, but he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Anything Texas was to receive from the players above would have been a bit of an unexpected bonus, much the way it has been from Roach. They're true freshmen and shouldn't be counted on to carry the team.
Where things have really come in under the level of preseason expectations is at the defensive tackle spots. Texas had three returning d-tackles heading into the season, so most people, including me, expected the freshmen to be forced into action early and often. Through five games, the Longhorns' heralded five-man defensive tackle class has totaled seven tackles on the year, four of which have come from Jordan Elliott, who is technically playing end.
I'm not saying anyone should be anywhere near close to throwing in the towel on these young pups. In fact, I'm not even trying to be critical of their play ... we have to remember they're true freshmen. But when looking at this group as a whole, it does appear they were significantly overvalued as far as what kinds of contributions they would make for this year.
3. Charlie Strong has the overwhelming support of his players and recruits
We've seen it on twitter, we've heard it from players publicly, we've heard it from recruits and I personally have heard it from several parents of players and recruits ... those close to the program want Strong to succeed in a bad way, and they feel he should be given more time regardless of how the rest of this year plays out.
Honestly, this really should come as no surprise to anyone who follows the program.
Strong's issues as a game-day coach have been well documented, but his ability to relate to recruits, players and parents is as good as any coach I've ever covered. We've seen him hoisted above his players' heads after big wins. We've heard from parents and prospects how much they respect and him and relate to him. He bonds with his players (and recruits) in a way that is truly authentic. That's a big part of what makes the ongoing struggles such sensitive subject.
If the team keeps struggling and the conversations of Strong being replaced continue to build, you can expect an even bigger outcry from current team members (and apparently the national media ... which is ironic since they don't really pay attention to the program unless things are going exceptionally well or horribly wrong).
Another area in which it could really get tricky is with recruiting. Right now, prospects are pretty much in wait-and-see mode on Strong's future before they can truly tell you how Texas fits into the mix. If Texas gets rid of Strong, it could in theory kill the Longhorns' chances towards adding some more key components to the current rebuild. Marvin Wilson himself has said Texas will fall out of the picture. On the flipside, if you keep Strong and let him try to get things on track for 2017, recruits are going to have it pounded into their heads by other coaches that they could be going to a place that will be facing a coaching turnover after their freshman year. Prospects may say publicly that this particular recruiting pitch won't impact their decision, but I'm telling you now ... don't buy it for a second.
Recruits want a few things, above all else. They want to play for a winning program. They want a place in which they have a good relationship with the coaches. They want to play early. Right now, Texas offers only one of the three while other programs in the state, particularly Texas A&M, are surging. As it stands today, it's a no-win situation for the Longhorns and there are going to be major recruiting issues to overcome regardless of what the eventual decision on Strong's future is.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Can Texas still salvage this season?
We've talked about the issues with the team and recruiting and those concerns are certainly legitimate, but as crazy as this is going to sound, all hope is not lost.
The Longhorns are spiraling in a three-game losing streak and have dropped their overall record to 2-3. There are plenty of tough games ahead, which is a big reason so many fans want to make a move in-season.
That's not the right answer, if you ask me.
Take a look at Texas' remaining schedule and it does look pretty daunting, but if you pull out each game individually, there's not a single contest that the Longhorns won't have a very good chance of winning. I know ... I almost feel ridiculous typing it ... but a case can be made for each game that Texas will come out on top.
Let's go ahead and assume Texas beats Iowa State this week (granted, not a given, but UT's chances of winning are 85 percent according to ESPN's Football Power Index).
@ K-State - Does KSU have the offense to keep up with Texas if UT gets hot (Power Index chance of a UT win = 41 percent)
Baylor - Probably a shootout similar to Cal where a play or two either way determines things (Power Index chance of a UT win = 40 percent)
@ Texas Tech - Same as Baylor, high-scoring affair that should be close (Power Index chance of a UT win = 41 percent)
West Virginia - It's at home and while WVU is undefeated, it's not a great team by any stretch of the imagination (Power Index chance of a UT win = 54 percent)
@ Kansas - Texas better win this one (Power Index chance of a UT win = 88 percent)
TCU - The Horned Frogs have been given way too much credit. This team is not that good (Power Index chance of a UT win = 52 percent)
Now, am I expecting Texas to suddenly get hot and run the table, or win six out of seven? No, because Strong's teams in Austin haven't shown that kind of consistency. But it's not out of the question, either.
And if the Longhorns get to 8-4 or even 7-5 (with two close losses and ending on a hot streak), it's going to be awfully tough to get rid of a coach who is showing signs of improvement with a young team. You're already hearing public cries to keep Strong when things are at their worst. If Texas can stack up some wins, a legitimate case can and will be made to keep Strong for a fourth year, and the power players at Texas would have an extremely difficult (and possibly messy) decision to make.
2. Can a team meeting, which was held on Monday, get things turned around?
I'm probably one of the biggest critics you'll find when it comes to players-only meetings. Unless the subject being discussed is one that the players can actively control (discipline issues within the team, for example), it just feels like unnecessary talk to me. Don't talk about playing better, get out on the field and actually do it.
Is having the team get together and discuss that it needs to eliminate mistakes, play harder and save their coaches' jobs going to suddenly turn things around? One would hope so for the sake of the coaches and the players, but it just feels like lip service at this point.
Texas fans have been hearing for too long now that things are going to get fixed, only to have the rug pulled out from them each time they decide to buy in. It happened again last week with Strong taking over the defense, only to see the Longhorns turn in one of the worst statistical performances in the history of the program. No team meeting is going change that.
ONE PREDICTION - Texas builds up some confidence on defense this week
I expect a much better defensive effort from Texas this weekend because of the opponent, the fact that the Longhorns are playing at home, and the team has clearly had its fill of the local and national criticism.
This feels like the type of game where Texas comes out and flexes its muscles against a lesser opponent, and we'll have some people questioning whether the defense, in week two under Strong's guidance, has begun to turn the corner. It's going to take more than one game to convince me. In fact, it'll take more than two, with a K-State team that is pretty average on offense on the schedule after Iowa State. Do it against Baylor and Texas Tech and I'll start to officially buy in, but I do think the Texas defense takes a step forward this weekend.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. It doesn't matter who is calling the defense, Texas is going to struggle
Last week in this column, I said I wasn't expecting any miracle turnaround with the Texas defense just because Charlie Strong had taken over that side of the ball. Going into the OU game, I thought the defense may get a boost of confidence with the defensive shake-up, but it wasn't realistic to turn the defense around in a matter of a week.
I have to admit ... for two quarters of last week's game, I was beginning to think I may have been dead wrong. Texas had given up a large number up yards to Oklahoma, but the Longhorns had yielded just 14 points and overall, it seemed like the defense was more active and tackling better.
Then the third quarter happened.
Oklahoma had four drives that started in that quarter. All four went for touchdowns and they covered a total of 333 yards. You're not going to win many games when your defense has those types of stretches, and for whatever reason, this Texas defense just can't seem to stop the bleeding once it starts.
The Texas defense will likely play better this week against an Iowa State offense that doesn't compare to what UT has faced in the last three games, but plenty of tough games remain after that. After what we witnessed in week one of the "Charlie Strong's defense" era, I think it's completely safe to say that the Longhorns are going to give up a lot of yards and points over the next couple months.
At some point you have to accept that a team, or in this case a particular side of the ball, is exactly what it has put on the résumé, and after five games, it seems clear that this Texas defense has little hope of turning things around. It's a group that lacks confidence, doesn't really have any playmakers right now and makes far too many mistakes in the back end.
Strong taking over the D may have sounded good on the surface, but it looks like there's no saving this group and fans are once again going to suffer through watching one of the worst defenses in the history of Texas football.
2. The freshman class has not lived up to expectations, especially on the lines
After signing one of the country's top overall recruiting classes, and topping it off with four players from Baylor's class, there was talk of this year's group coming in and making an immediate impact at numerous positions. I was as guilty as believing it as anyone, especially if we're talking about defensive line.
Shane Buechele is obviously the most impactful freshman of the class. Malcolm Roach, an unheralded recruit compared to some others, has far exceeded expectations. Beyond that, there have been a play or two here or there for a few other guys, but mostly it's been five games of below average play for those who have touched the field, or five games of zero impact.
Zach Shackelford continues to start at center and while he's done about as well as you could expect for a true freshman, he's struggled some. Collin Johnson was believed to be a star from the moment he stepped on campus, but he hadn't really factored into the offense at all before finally getting involved last week. Brandon Jones has seen some playing time but has had some struggles. Jeffrey McCulloch has earned more work but has been pretty quiet overall. Devin Duvernay finally broke free for a long TD catch against Oklahoma, but has recorded just five receptions overall. Kyle Porter has played quite a bit, but he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Anything Texas was to receive from the players above would have been a bit of an unexpected bonus, much the way it has been from Roach. They're true freshmen and shouldn't be counted on to carry the team.
Where things have really come in under the level of preseason expectations is at the defensive tackle spots. Texas had three returning d-tackles heading into the season, so most people, including me, expected the freshmen to be forced into action early and often. Through five games, the Longhorns' heralded five-man defensive tackle class has totaled seven tackles on the year, four of which have come from Jordan Elliott, who is technically playing end.
I'm not saying anyone should be anywhere near close to throwing in the towel on these young pups. In fact, I'm not even trying to be critical of their play ... we have to remember they're true freshmen. But when looking at this group as a whole, it does appear they were significantly overvalued as far as what kinds of contributions they would make for this year.
3. Charlie Strong has the overwhelming support of his players and recruits
We've seen it on twitter, we've heard it from players publicly, we've heard it from recruits and I personally have heard it from several parents of players and recruits ... those close to the program want Strong to succeed in a bad way, and they feel he should be given more time regardless of how the rest of this year plays out.
Honestly, this really should come as no surprise to anyone who follows the program.
Strong's issues as a game-day coach have been well documented, but his ability to relate to recruits, players and parents is as good as any coach I've ever covered. We've seen him hoisted above his players' heads after big wins. We've heard from parents and prospects how much they respect and him and relate to him. He bonds with his players (and recruits) in a way that is truly authentic. That's a big part of what makes the ongoing struggles such sensitive subject.
If the team keeps struggling and the conversations of Strong being replaced continue to build, you can expect an even bigger outcry from current team members (and apparently the national media ... which is ironic since they don't really pay attention to the program unless things are going exceptionally well or horribly wrong).
Another area in which it could really get tricky is with recruiting. Right now, prospects are pretty much in wait-and-see mode on Strong's future before they can truly tell you how Texas fits into the mix. If Texas gets rid of Strong, it could in theory kill the Longhorns' chances towards adding some more key components to the current rebuild. Marvin Wilson himself has said Texas will fall out of the picture. On the flipside, if you keep Strong and let him try to get things on track for 2017, recruits are going to have it pounded into their heads by other coaches that they could be going to a place that will be facing a coaching turnover after their freshman year. Prospects may say publicly that this particular recruiting pitch won't impact their decision, but I'm telling you now ... don't buy it for a second.
Recruits want a few things, above all else. They want to play for a winning program. They want a place in which they have a good relationship with the coaches. They want to play early. Right now, Texas offers only one of the three while other programs in the state, particularly Texas A&M, are surging. As it stands today, it's a no-win situation for the Longhorns and there are going to be major recruiting issues to overcome regardless of what the eventual decision on Strong's future is.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Can Texas still salvage this season?
We've talked about the issues with the team and recruiting and those concerns are certainly legitimate, but as crazy as this is going to sound, all hope is not lost.
The Longhorns are spiraling in a three-game losing streak and have dropped their overall record to 2-3. There are plenty of tough games ahead, which is a big reason so many fans want to make a move in-season.
That's not the right answer, if you ask me.
Take a look at Texas' remaining schedule and it does look pretty daunting, but if you pull out each game individually, there's not a single contest that the Longhorns won't have a very good chance of winning. I know ... I almost feel ridiculous typing it ... but a case can be made for each game that Texas will come out on top.
Let's go ahead and assume Texas beats Iowa State this week (granted, not a given, but UT's chances of winning are 85 percent according to ESPN's Football Power Index).
@ K-State - Does KSU have the offense to keep up with Texas if UT gets hot (Power Index chance of a UT win = 41 percent)
Baylor - Probably a shootout similar to Cal where a play or two either way determines things (Power Index chance of a UT win = 40 percent)
@ Texas Tech - Same as Baylor, high-scoring affair that should be close (Power Index chance of a UT win = 41 percent)
West Virginia - It's at home and while WVU is undefeated, it's not a great team by any stretch of the imagination (Power Index chance of a UT win = 54 percent)
@ Kansas - Texas better win this one (Power Index chance of a UT win = 88 percent)
TCU - The Horned Frogs have been given way too much credit. This team is not that good (Power Index chance of a UT win = 52 percent)
Now, am I expecting Texas to suddenly get hot and run the table, or win six out of seven? No, because Strong's teams in Austin haven't shown that kind of consistency. But it's not out of the question, either.
And if the Longhorns get to 8-4 or even 7-5 (with two close losses and ending on a hot streak), it's going to be awfully tough to get rid of a coach who is showing signs of improvement with a young team. You're already hearing public cries to keep Strong when things are at their worst. If Texas can stack up some wins, a legitimate case can and will be made to keep Strong for a fourth year, and the power players at Texas would have an extremely difficult (and possibly messy) decision to make.
2. Can a team meeting, which was held on Monday, get things turned around?
I'm probably one of the biggest critics you'll find when it comes to players-only meetings. Unless the subject being discussed is one that the players can actively control (discipline issues within the team, for example), it just feels like unnecessary talk to me. Don't talk about playing better, get out on the field and actually do it.
Is having the team get together and discuss that it needs to eliminate mistakes, play harder and save their coaches' jobs going to suddenly turn things around? One would hope so for the sake of the coaches and the players, but it just feels like lip service at this point.
Texas fans have been hearing for too long now that things are going to get fixed, only to have the rug pulled out from them each time they decide to buy in. It happened again last week with Strong taking over the defense, only to see the Longhorns turn in one of the worst statistical performances in the history of the program. No team meeting is going change that.
ONE PREDICTION - Texas builds up some confidence on defense this week
I expect a much better defensive effort from Texas this weekend because of the opponent, the fact that the Longhorns are playing at home, and the team has clearly had its fill of the local and national criticism.
This feels like the type of game where Texas comes out and flexes its muscles against a lesser opponent, and we'll have some people questioning whether the defense, in week two under Strong's guidance, has begun to turn the corner. It's going to take more than one game to convince me. In fact, it'll take more than two, with a K-State team that is pretty average on offense on the schedule after Iowa State. Do it against Baylor and Texas Tech and I'll start to officially buy in, but I do think the Texas defense takes a step forward this weekend.
