Turnout.
DES MOINES — Iowa’s caucus-reporting meltdown was painful. But another grenade from Monday night, just beyond the line of sight, may be just as consequential.
For more than a year, Democrats have been preparing for high turnout in 2020, powered by an electorate juiced by rage against President Donald Trump. But in their first test of the year, early data suggested Tuesday that turnout was “on pace for 2016,” the Iowa Democratic Party said, far below levels many observers predicted.
In other words: Democrats were counting on Barack Obama-levels of enthusiasm. They got Hillary Clinton numbers, instead.
Looking at the low turnout estimate in Des Moines late Monday night, an adviser to one candidate said simply, “Wow.”
The turnout statistics are not final and were referenced only briefly, tucked into an Iowa Democratic Party statement about the reporting fiasco just as it began swirling out of control.
"What we know right now is that around 25% of precincts have reported, and early data indicates turnout is on pace for 2016,” the party’s communications director, Mandy McClure, said in a prepared statement.
If that number holds, turnout will run only to about 170,000 people, well below the 240,000 who participated in the caucuses in 2008.
“It’s an enthusiasm gap,” said Michael Ceraso, who worked for Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign and was Pete Buttigieg’s New Hampshire director before leaving the campaign last year.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-low-turnout-110674
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-low-turnout-110674
DES MOINES — Iowa’s caucus-reporting meltdown was painful. But another grenade from Monday night, just beyond the line of sight, may be just as consequential.
For more than a year, Democrats have been preparing for high turnout in 2020, powered by an electorate juiced by rage against President Donald Trump. But in their first test of the year, early data suggested Tuesday that turnout was “on pace for 2016,” the Iowa Democratic Party said, far below levels many observers predicted.
In other words: Democrats were counting on Barack Obama-levels of enthusiasm. They got Hillary Clinton numbers, instead.
Looking at the low turnout estimate in Des Moines late Monday night, an adviser to one candidate said simply, “Wow.”
The turnout statistics are not final and were referenced only briefly, tucked into an Iowa Democratic Party statement about the reporting fiasco just as it began swirling out of control.
"What we know right now is that around 25% of precincts have reported, and early data indicates turnout is on pace for 2016,” the party’s communications director, Mandy McClure, said in a prepared statement.
If that number holds, turnout will run only to about 170,000 people, well below the 240,000 who participated in the caucuses in 2008.
“It’s an enthusiasm gap,” said Michael Ceraso, who worked for Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign and was Pete Buttigieg’s New Hampshire director before leaving the campaign last year.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-low-turnout-110674
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-low-turnout-110674
