**Warning - Long read with a bunch of numbers ahead**
Let's take an objective look at Tom Herman and how his head coached teams at Texas have performed. To do that, we'll use the Football Power Index (FPI) as our standard, for the sake of conducting this evaluation.
For now, we'll ignore Herman's childish behavior, arrogance, and awkwardness to just look at the numbers over the years.
2017
Lowlights/Highlights:
2 bad losses - Maryland and Texas Tech
1 good win - West Virginia.
The good/bad losses/wins consider win probability and game score.
One loss as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 25th
Strength of Record - 39th
Game Control - 20th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 97th
Defense - 5th
Special Teams - 20th
Overall - 28th
2018
Lowlights/Highlights:
1 bad loss - Maryland
4 bad wins - Tulsa, Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas
2 good wins - Oklahoma and Georgia
The good/bad losses/wins consider win probability and game score.
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 19th
Strength of Record - 13th
Game Control - 6th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 24th
Defense - 34th
Special Teams - 65th
Overall - 23rd
2019
Lowlights/Highlights:
1 bad win - Kansas
1 good win - Utah
I did not consider the losses against TCU, Iowa State and Baylor "bad losses" because that outcome was expected according to the FPI.
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 20th
Strength of Record - 26th
Game Control - 24th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 16th
Defense - 49th
Special Teams - 73rd
Overall - 24th
2020 (so far)
Lowlights/Highlights:
2 bad losses - TCU and Oklahoma
3 bad wins - Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
0 good wins
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 12th
Strength of Record - 23rd
Game Control - 34th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 35th
Defense - 31st
Special Teams - 79th
Overall - 28th
Summary
30-17 Record
The other thing to consider not included in this review is how the recruiting momentum has completely vanished. Recruits are not buying any Texas stock this year, and probably won't be in the future if it doesn't get over the hump. It's year four and Herman has not taken the program to the next level.
Let's take an objective look at Tom Herman and how his head coached teams at Texas have performed. To do that, we'll use the Football Power Index (FPI) as our standard, for the sake of conducting this evaluation.
For now, we'll ignore Herman's childish behavior, arrogance, and awkwardness to just look at the numbers over the years.
2017
- Loss (51-41) - vs Maryland (88.4% Win Probability, 10/100 Game Score)
- Win (56-0) - vs San Jose State (94.4% Win Probability, 63/100 Game Score)
- Loss (27-24) - at USC (23.4% Win Probability, 63/100 Game Score)
- Win (17-7) - at Iowa State (63.8% Win Probability, 95/100 Game Score)
- Win (40-34) - vs Kansas State (61.3% Win Probability, 76/100 Game Score)
- Loss (29-24) - vs Oklahoma (21.5% Win Probability, 56/100 Game Score)
- Loss (13-10) - vs Oklahoma State (36.4% Win Probability, 64/100 Game Score)
- Win (38-7) - at Baylor (83.1% Win Probability, 83/100 Game Score)
- Loss (24-7) - at Texas Christian (27.6% Win Probability, 46/100 Game Score)
- Win (28-24) - West Virginia (44.8% Win Probability, 92/100 Game Score)
- Loss (27-23) - Texas Tech (80.4% Win Probability, 49/100 Game Score)
- Win (33-16) - Missouri (60.4% Win Probability, 87/100 Game Score)
Lowlights/Highlights:
2 bad losses - Maryland and Texas Tech
1 good win - West Virginia.
The good/bad losses/wins consider win probability and game score.
One loss as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 25th
Strength of Record - 39th
Game Control - 20th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 97th
Defense - 5th
Special Teams - 20th
Overall - 28th
2018
- Loss (34-29) - at Maryland (75.6% Win Probability, 39/100 Game Score)
- Win (28-21) - vs Tulsa (93.4% Win Probability, 62/100 Game Score)
- Win (37-14) - vs USC (54.3% Win Probability, 80/100 Game Score)
- Win (31-16) - vs TCU (59% Win Probability, 77/100 Game Score)
- Win (19-14) - at Kansas State (81.7% Win Probability, 85/100 Game Score)
- Win (48-45) - vs Oklahoma (24.4% Win Probability, 98/100 Game Score)
- Win (23-17) - vs Baylor (84.9% Win Probability, 71/100 Game Score)
- Loss (38-35) - at Oklahoma State (47% Win Probability, 43/100 Game Score)
- Loss (42-41) - vs West Virginia (49.4% Win Probability, 63/100 Game Score)
- Win (41-34) - at Texas Tech (72.4% Win Probability, 92/100 Game Score)
- Win (24-10) - vs Iowa State (65.3% Win Probability, 87/100 Game Score)
- Win (24-17) - vs Kansas (83.8% Win Probability, 78/100 Game Score)
- Loss (39-27) - vs Oklahoma (28.4% Win Probability, 64/100 Game Score)
- Win (28-21) - vs Georgia (23.5% Win Probability, 97/100 Game Score)
Lowlights/Highlights:
1 bad loss - Maryland
4 bad wins - Tulsa, Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas
2 good wins - Oklahoma and Georgia
The good/bad losses/wins consider win probability and game score.
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 19th
Strength of Record - 13th
Game Control - 6th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 24th
Defense - 34th
Special Teams - 65th
Overall - 23rd
2019
- Win (45-14) - vs Louisiana Tech (93.5% Win Probability, 79/100 Game Score)
- Loss (45-38) - vs Louisiana State (21% Win Probability, 67/100 Game Score)
- Win (48-13) - at Rice (98.2% Win Probability, 73/100 Game Score)
- Win (36-30) - vs Oklahoma State (60.7% Win Probability, 84/100 Game Score)
- Win (42-31) - at West Virginia (74.6% Win Probability, 80/100 Game Score)
- Loss (34-27) - vs Oklahoma (28.7% Win Probability, 54/100 Game Score)
- Win (50-48) - vs Kansas (97.4% Win Probability, 46/100 Game Score)
- Loss (37-27) - at Texas Christian (52.4% Win Probability, 51/100 Game Score)
- Win (27-24) - vs Kansas State (65.9% Win Probability, 69/100 Game Score)
- Loss (23-21) - at Iowa State (25.6% Win Probability, 49/100 Game Score)
- Loss (24-10) - at Baylor (37.9% Win Probability, 45/100 Game Score)
- Win (49-24) - vs Texas Tech (75.3% Win Probability, 75/100 Game Score)
- Win (38-10) - vs Utah (64.8% Win Probability, 95/100 Game Score)
Lowlights/Highlights:
1 bad win - Kansas
1 good win - Utah
I did not consider the losses against TCU, Iowa State and Baylor "bad losses" because that outcome was expected according to the FPI.
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 20th
Strength of Record - 26th
Game Control - 24th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 16th
Defense - 49th
Special Teams - 73rd
Overall - 24th
2020 (so far)
- Win (59-3) - vs Texas-El Paso (99.8% Win Probability, 71/100 Game Score)
- Win (63-56) - at Texas Tech (92.1% Win Probability, 73/100 Game Score)
- Loss (33-31) - vs Texas Christian (76.7% Win Probability, 42/100 Game Score)
- Loss (53-45) - vs Oklahoma (70.2% Win Probability, 61/100 Game Score)
- Win (27-16) - vs Baylor (76.7% Win Probability, 84/100 Game Score)
- Win (41-34) - at Oklahoma State (53.9% Win Probability, 84/100 Game Score)
- Win (17-13) - vs West Virginia (83% Win Probability, 78/100 Game Score)
- TBD - vs Iowa State (71.9% Win Probability)
- TBD - at Kansas State (79.0% Win Probability)
- TBD - at Kansas (97.5% Win Probability)
Lowlights/Highlights:
2 bad losses - TCU and Oklahoma
3 bad wins - Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia
0 good wins
Two losses as a ranked team against an unranked opponent.
Resume:
FPI Rank - 12th
Strength of Record - 23rd
Game Control - 34th
Efficiencies:
Offense - 35th
Defense - 31st
Special Teams - 79th
Overall - 28th
Summary
30-17 Record
- 5 bad losses - Maryland (2017), Texas Tech (2017), Maryland (2018), TCU (2020), Oklahoma (2020)
- 8 bad wins - Tulsa (2018), Kansas State (2018), Baylor (2018), Kansas (2018), Kansas (2019), Texas Tech (2020), Baylor (2020), West Virginia (2020)
- 4 good wins - West Virginia (2017), Oklahoma (2018), Georgia (2018), Utah (2019)
- 7 losses against unranked teams as a ranked team
The other thing to consider not included in this review is how the recruiting momentum has completely vanished. Recruits are not buying any Texas stock this year, and probably won't be in the future if it doesn't get over the hump. It's year four and Herman has not taken the program to the next level.
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