Currently there are five teams essentially tied for first place in the SEC with one loss.
There are two “elimination” games amongst the leaders (Georgia/Tennessee in two weeks and Texas/a&m on T+2). Loser of those two games are out in all likelihood.
Here are the paths to 7-1 for the five remaining teams
Georgia – their two remaining games are tough ones. It starts next week @ Ole Miss followed by Tennessee at home. They will be done with the SEC in two weeks. If the Dawgs prevail in both, I can’t see them being eliminated in a tiebreaker.
a&m – aggies have a bye followed by a patsy in New Mexico State. They finish with a probable win at Auburn on 11/23 setting up a possible play-in game in College Station on 11/30.
Tennessee – a home game vs. Mississippi State next week is a tune up for a showdown on 11/16 at Georgia. If they beat Georgia, they would have to beat Vandy in Nashville on 11/30 to stay in contention for a berth in the SEC championship.
Texas – everyone knows what they must do. Win all four and they are most likely in since their tiebreakers are good for everyone except Georgia.
LSU – I don’t think LSU will run the table. They play Alabama next week at home. Roadie to Gainesville on 11/16, followed by Vandy in Baton Rouge and finishing off ou’s season on 11/30.
There are only two possible three way ties at 7-1 as the loser of the Georgia/Tennessee game becomes a two-loss team and are eliminated along with a&m.
Georgia, Texas and LSU tied
Georgia is first qualifier by virtue of beating Texas head-to-head (1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) since LSU played neither. What I don’t know is if this tiebreaker settles the tie for second-qualifier since LSU would be 0-0 and Texas would be 0-1. Texas wins the second tiebreaker (2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams) with a 5-0 record for Texas vs 4-1 for LSU.
Tennessee, Texas and LSU tied
No head-to-head. So it goes to the record vs. common opponents. Tennessee is eliminated by virtue of it’s loss to Arkansas. Texas is the home team vs. LSU from the second tiebreaker (see above).
Summary
If Texas wins out they are in versus the Tennessee/Georgia winner if LSU loses at least once. If there’s a three-way tie, Texas could be in jeopardy if Georgia and LSU are tied with them depending on how they interpret the rules. Two-loss teams could most definitely end up in the mix but I’m not going to get into those permutations. Texas needs to take care of business the next four games and they are probably in.
Bottom line. Win out and root for an LSU loss (just in case or just for fun).
The Rules
- Two are 5-1 (Georgia and a&m)
- One Is 4-1 (Tennessee)
- Two are 3-1 (Texas and LSU)
There are two “elimination” games amongst the leaders (Georgia/Tennessee in two weeks and Texas/a&m on T+2). Loser of those two games are out in all likelihood.
Here are the paths to 7-1 for the five remaining teams
Georgia – their two remaining games are tough ones. It starts next week @ Ole Miss followed by Tennessee at home. They will be done with the SEC in two weeks. If the Dawgs prevail in both, I can’t see them being eliminated in a tiebreaker.
a&m – aggies have a bye followed by a patsy in New Mexico State. They finish with a probable win at Auburn on 11/23 setting up a possible play-in game in College Station on 11/30.
Tennessee – a home game vs. Mississippi State next week is a tune up for a showdown on 11/16 at Georgia. If they beat Georgia, they would have to beat Vandy in Nashville on 11/30 to stay in contention for a berth in the SEC championship.
Texas – everyone knows what they must do. Win all four and they are most likely in since their tiebreakers are good for everyone except Georgia.
LSU – I don’t think LSU will run the table. They play Alabama next week at home. Roadie to Gainesville on 11/16, followed by Vandy in Baton Rouge and finishing off ou’s season on 11/30.
There are only two possible three way ties at 7-1 as the loser of the Georgia/Tennessee game becomes a two-loss team and are eliminated along with a&m.
Georgia, Texas and LSU tied
Georgia is first qualifier by virtue of beating Texas head-to-head (1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) since LSU played neither. What I don’t know is if this tiebreaker settles the tie for second-qualifier since LSU would be 0-0 and Texas would be 0-1. Texas wins the second tiebreaker (2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams) with a 5-0 record for Texas vs 4-1 for LSU.
Tennessee, Texas and LSU tied
No head-to-head. So it goes to the record vs. common opponents. Tennessee is eliminated by virtue of it’s loss to Arkansas. Texas is the home team vs. LSU from the second tiebreaker (see above).
Summary
If Texas wins out they are in versus the Tennessee/Georgia winner if LSU loses at least once. If there’s a three-way tie, Texas could be in jeopardy if Georgia and LSU are tied with them depending on how they interpret the rules. Two-loss teams could most definitely end up in the mix but I’m not going to get into those permutations. Texas needs to take care of business the next four games and they are probably in.
Bottom line. Win out and root for an LSU loss (just in case or just for fun).
The Rules
- Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
- Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Random draw of the tied teams
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