Photo via San Antonio Express-News
The Texas Longhorns face an uphill battle this season.
During a recent TicketCity Podcast, @Ketchum led a discussion about the realistic expectations that should be placed on this season. Everyone on our staff knows it is just a matter of time before the “Big 12 Championship-or-bust” conversation gets started. Heck, most members of our staff acknowledged this season will be a failure without a conference title. I respect the expectations of Longhorn fans, and the opinions of a crew of reporters who have followed this program for years. As a guy who arrived in 2014, and has endured many rough years, my expectations are somewhat different. I believe there are multiple reasons to be cautious about the upcoming season.
Texas football coach Tom Herman hired a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and special team coordinator. The players will have to learn a new defense this offseason. Offensive players must adjust to the tinkering that will occur with Mike Yurcich as their coordinator. In addition, there are four new assistant football coaches. That means players must adjust to hearing different voices and new drills. Obviously, the “1-0” mantra will be here as long as Herman is in charge. That being said, it is impossible to deny those are a lot of changes.
That is why Herman recently flew up to South Bend and met with Notre Dame football coach Brian Kelly. Notre Dame finished 4-8 in 2016, and Kelly completely overhauled his staff. Kelly hired a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and special team coordinator, and strength coach. Overall, Kelly reportedly hired 17 new football staff members after that season. Nevertheless, after that 4-8 season, Notre Dame finished 10-3 in 2017, 12-1 in 2018, and 11-2 in 2019. Herman wanted to exchange ideas with Kelly and figure out how to excel in spite of the changes.
If you are looking for optimism, the experience factor of potential starters could help.
Clearly, experience does not equate to success. If that was the case, Kansas would not be the Big 12’s worst team every year because it could lean on veteran players. Some players max out athletically and hit their ceiling in high school, or as underclassmen.
However, the main reason Herman made changes after the 2019 regular season is because he did not believe his players were developed enough. He wanted to find coaches with a history of development, and Herman arguably improved his staff with those moves.
I reached out to @Alex Dunlap this past week and asked for access to his research. I wanted to know the participation percentages of players he projected to start this season. Knowing the experience level of players Yurcich and defensive coordinator Chris Ash could work with this season was definitely something I wanted to figure out.
Dunlap proceeded to share a Microsoft Excel file that left me wondering if he is a genius or potentially insane. There were at least 60 tabs that calculated tight end usage, offensive line snaps per disruption, something called a market master, and statistical breakdowns that are probably good enough for him to land an analytics position on Herman’s staff.
It was like being in the Matrix.
After the red pill wore off, I had a better understanding of what the new staff will work with this season.
Assuming Alex’s data isn't instructions about how to build a flux capacitor, I took his projected 2019 starters and combined that with last year’s player participation percentages.
Here is what I learned from his impressive research:
Offense
(Player/Participation Percentage in 2019)
QB – Sam Ehlinger 96%
RB – Keaontay Ingram 49%
XWR – Marcus Washington 12%
ZWR – Brennan Eagles 65%
H(slot) – Jake Smith 26%
TE – Cade Brewer 48%
LT – Sam Cosmi 100%
LG – Tope Imade .01%
C – Derek Kerstetter 92%
RG – Junior Angilau 78%
RT – Denzel Okafor 25%
Defense
(Player/Participation Percentage in 2019)
SDE – Marquez Bimage 19.98%
DT – Ta’Quon Graham 61%
NG – Keondre Coburn 52%
WDE/Jack – Joseph Ossai 89%
Mike – Juwan Mitchell 55%
Will – DeMarvion Overshown 27%
Nickel – Anthony Cook 49%
CB – Jalen Green 42%
CB – D’Shawn Jamison 64%
S – Chris Brown 63%
S – Caden Sterns 49%
Six offensive players had at least 50 percent of reps in 2019.
In addition, six defensive players had at least 50 percent of reps last season. If you want to round up since Cook and Sterns are at 49 percent, that means eight players consistently contributed last season. Also, Green’s playing time was limited due to injuries.
That is arguably a better situation than what Ash inherited during his first season at Ohio State.
Here was the starting defensive lineup in 2014:
DE Joey Bosa - Sophomore
*DT Adolphus Washington - Junior
*DT Michael Bennett - Senior
DE Steve Miller - Senior
SLB Darron Lee - Sophomore
*MLB Curtis Grant - Senior
WLB Chris Worley - Redshirt freshman
CB Eli Apple - Redshirt freshman
*S Tyvis Powell - redshirt sophomore
S Vonn Bell - Sophomore
*CB Doran Grant - Senior
*Denotes returning starter
What was interesting is Ash moved Washington from defensive end to defensive tackle. Washington thrived after that position change and became a third-round pick by Buffalo in 2016. Ash recently moved Ta’Quon Graham from defensive end to defensive tackle, and time will tell how that pays off.
However, we know Ash hit the ground running at Ohio State:
“In his first season, OSU's defense ranked 19th nationally in total defense (342.4 ypc), 26th in scoring defense (22.0 ppg), 13th in pass efficiency defense (108.17) and 28th in pass defense (201.1 ypg). The Buckeyes also ranked fourth nationally with 24 interceptions, fifth in turnovers gained (33), 16th in third-down defense (34.4%), 13th in sacks (3.00 pg) and 14th in tackles for loss (7.3 pg) en route to a Big Ten and National Championship.
“Defensive end Joey Bosa was a unanimous first-team All-American, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year and first-team All-Big Ten, along with DB Doran Grant, while DT Michael Bennett and LB Joshua Perry were second-team. Grant and Bennett went on to both be selected in the 2015 NFL Draft.”
The Longhorns played young cornerbacks who struggled at times last season. They also have a fresh set of eyes who could help them learn from those mistakes.
In addition, Texas had the 14th best offense in the nation last season. Ehlinger will enter this season as arguably the Big 12’s best quarterback, while there are several players who received significant playing time on offense last year that might see the field more this season.
Texas has several obstacles to overcome this year.
Having experienced players could help that process.
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
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Sports On A Dime
1. After writing my column, I spoke with multiple sources about the Longhorn depth chart. Here are a few nuggets for breakfast:
- The majority of Longhorn observers believe Moro Ojomo will play the three-technique this season, but I learned that is not the case. According to my sources, Ojomo is expected to compete against Bimage at defensive end this spring. In fact, Ojomo and Bimage will split first-team reps when practice begins.
- In addition, Rafiti Ghirmai will compete against Tope Imade at the left guard. Tyler Johnson is currently Imade’s backup.
- Chris Adimora is currently ahead of Anthony Cook for the nickelback spot (Adimora had a 8.6 player participation percentage).
- Josh Thompson and D’Shawn Jaminson are currently the number-one cornerbacks. Jalen Green will have an opportunity to catch up in spring practice (Thompson was at 16 percent).
Obviously, the depth chart might change at some point during spring practice. For now, take mental notes.
2. Nobody is going to be cheering louder for Shaka Smart in the Big 12 tournament than athletic director Chris Del Conte. The last thing he wants to do is cut a $10 million check. We know Del Conte has been great at raising money. Now everyone will learn about his ability/willingness to make staff changes.
3. Sam Ehlinger’s rib injury means Casey Thompson will need to take advantage of his reps in the fall. I previously reported Ehlinger is slated to receive most of the first-team reps during spring practice because he needs to fully command the modified playbook. Thompson will first-team reps will increase in the fall, and he has to be ready to step in if Ehlinger has to miss a snap this season.
4. Speaking of quarterback injuries, it is hard not to root for Ja’ Quinden Jackson as he recovers from the ACL injury sustained in the playoffs
5. Props to Malcolm Roach for making the most out of his opportunity
6. LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase is switching jersey numbers from No.1 to No.7. Who previously wore No.7 at LSU?
Patrick Peterson, cornerback
Tyrann Mathieu, safety
Leonard Fournette, running back
D.J. Chark, wide receiver
Grant Delpit, safety
7. The moment Snacks became your favorite college basketball player
8. Get ready for another 10 years of people complaining about Roger Goodell’s decision-making as relates to player discipline. Check out the excerpt from ProFootballTalk.com:
“The Commissioner’s power under the new CBA is shrinking. Unless it isn’t.
“The proposed CBA definitely changes the Commissioner’s authority over the Personal Conduct Policy. But he still retains final say over the process, including the ability to both reduce and to enhance the punishment implemented by the neutral party that will make the initial decisions.
“The CBA creates a “Disciplinary Officer” position for the initial decisions. Those decisions are then subject to appeal to the Commissioner, and either side may appeal the Disciplinary Officer’s final rulings.”
As Mike Florio points out, “It would have made much more sense to flip it around, with the Commissioner making the initial decision and the appeal being handled by an independent decision-maker. But that’s not what happened. So, the changes to the Personal Conduct Policy’s appeal process really doesn’t change much of anything.”
9. If New York Jets defensive lineman Quinnen Williams was a US & Texas Law Shield member, he could have received accurate information from an attorney, and this could have been avoided:
“Williams, 22, was carrying a gun with an Alabama permit, New York/New Jersey Port Authority Police said in a statement to ESPN. The former Alabama star grew up in Birmingham, Alabama.
“According to police, the weapon was a Glock 19 handgun.
“Williams' handgun, not licensed in New York State, did not contain ammunition, according to a Port Authority Police spokesperson. However, Williams had ammunition in his possession, police said. Under state law, an operable firearm with ammunition in close proximity means the gun could be deemed "loaded" -- which potentially carries a much stiffer penalty than illegal possession of an unloaded gun.
“Williams was arrested at the Delta check-in counter before going through security. It's unclear how the gun was discovered, but one source described it as an innocent mistake by Williams, who told authorities he was given misinformation about New York gun laws.”
10. Mike Tyson is still a scary individual years after boxing. This is an intense response during the taping of that show (bad language warning)
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