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Well, that escalated quickly.
A few weeks ago, Texas Longhorn football fans and media members were questioning the lack of verbal commitments to coach Steve Sarkisian. Texas only had two commitments. One commitment was quarterback Trey Owens. The other was kicker Michael Kern. Longhorn observers looked at the number of commitments at other college football programs and questioned if Sarkisian would be able to work his magic again.
Before starting my vacation on June 15, I checked in with a source and asked if they were worried about recruiting. That person was so unbothered by the lack of commitments, this is what I reported in the War Room that evening: “One source told me to expect an 'avalanche' of commitments over the 30 days or so. That means this staff believes they are in the driver’s seat during the recruitment of multiple players or have a silent commitment from recruits. This staff does have a history of obtaining silent commits and having those players announce at strategic moments. In addition, I was told the staff intends to have a full recruiting class. Right now, the target number is 25 players in the 2024 class.”
Since that report, Sarkisian has received nine verbal commitments within two weeks (June 17 to July 1). Sarkisian picked up three commitments this past Saturday. It has not taken long for those who were recently skeptical about Sarkisian’s ability to recruit – as if he lost his mojo – to praise the head coach for his latest recruiting success.
It is time to embrace Sarkisian's winning formula for recruiting success
Sarkisian has a way of recruiting that works for him. You can look at Georgia’s number of early commitments every year and stress out. You can compare Sarkisian’s number to Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s (24 verbal commitments) and panic.
After you overreact, ponder this.
Why are you questioning Sarkisian before signing day?
In a moment, I am going to show you why that is an exercise in futility. Sarkisian has a history of delivering when it counts with more consistency than Amazon.
There is a moment in Sarkisian’s tenure that sticks out to me. During the 2021 season, Sarkisian was questioned by the media about his offensive line recruiting. It was November and Sarkisian only had two verbal commitments from offensive linemen. Many Longhorn observers believed Sarkisian was going to continue the unfortunate trend of striking out with elite offensive linemen.
“I think there’s a fine line and if you want to settle on lineman, we could probably get five linemen tonight by tonight,” Sarkisian said. “But if you want to recruit the best players and you want to ultimately put together a line for your future that is upper echelon, upper tier in the country, you’ve got to recruit the best players and a lot of the best players haven’t decided where they’re going to school yet.”
And he was right.
Sarkisian proceeded to land commitments from Kelvin Banks, Cam Williams, Neto Umeeozulu, Malik Agbo, DJ Campbell, and it was viewed as one of the best offensive line recruiting classes in school history.
Warning: nerd alert.
I researched every recruiting class by Sarkisian as a head coach. My goal was to discover Sarkisian’s trends in recruiting. More specifically, I wanted to know what months Sarkisian landed verbal commits.
To give you a good understanding of Sarkisian’s tendencies, I am going to skip around. However, I believe it will help you understand why Sarkisian does not panic in recruiting because his wait-and-see formula works.
Let us look at Sarkisian’s No.1 ranked 2015 recruiting class.
If there was ever a reason for Sarkisian to exercise patience when recruiting elite players, I believe this class solidified his recruiting philosophy. We will get to days at Washington soon enough. For now, let us examine the class that established Sarkisian’s reputation as one of the nation’s best recruiters.
It is important to note that there was only one signing day in 2015. Unlike nowadays when we have two signing days, and December is more important, February mattered the most when Sarkisian was at USC.
Here is a look at the months Sarkisian picked up commitments:
1st January – 1
1st February – 0
March – 0
April – 1
May – 4
June – 1
July – 5
August – 2
September – 0
October – 0
November 0
December – 2
2nd January – 4
2nd February – 6
Total commitments: 26
Recruiting ranking: 1st
Here is the most thought-provoking aspect of that successful haul of recruits.
Sarkisian received commitments from four 5-star players in the class.
Here are their verbal commitment dates:
LB Porter Gustin (February 4, 2015)
LB John Houston (February 5, 2015)
DE Rasheem Green (February 5, 2015)
DB Iman Marshall (February 5, 2015)
Signing day was on February 5, 2015.
“In a perfect world, all these guys would commit in about mid-June or mid-July and they just all be Trojans and everything would be happy and all that, and then you just try to hold on to them at the end,” Sarkisian said during an interview on USC’s website. “Quite honestly, I kind of enjoy some of the excitement. I kind of enjoy these home visits in the last week or two where you're going into this home and you got to seal the deal. I think there is a sense of comfort there. So many times, these players and their families are coming to our campus, they're coming to our games, they're in our locker room.
“I enjoy the opportunity to go into their home, to sit on their couch, sit at their dinner table, to eat their mom's cooking, all those things. I think there is a sense of comfort that that kicks in. It's not just about signing day. That helps moving forward into the fall into the years to come. All in all, I enjoy the recruiting process. I love the excitement of it.”
Now, let us look at the months Sarkisian picked up commitments during two seasons at Texas (not counting the 2024 class).
Remember, signing day in December is more important than February.
1st January: 0
February: 4
March: 1
April: 5
May: 0
June: 13
July: 7
August: 5
September: 1
October: 1
November: 1
December: 11
2nd January: 2
2nd February: 2
Total commitments: 53
Recruiting ranking: 5th in 2022, 3rd in 2023
Sarkisian has signed four 5-star players at Texas.
Here are those verbal commitment dates:
OL DJ Campbell (February 2, 2022)
QB Arch Manning (June 23, 2022)
WR Johntay Cook II (June 29, 2022)
LB Anthony Hill (December 15, 2022)
Rivals had Kelvin Banks listed as a high 4-star recruit. However, 247 ranked Banks as a 5-star.
If I included Banks on that list, he verbally committed on December 11, 2021.
Of the eight 5-star players Sarkisian has obtained between USC and Texas, six verbally committed close to signing day.
If you include Banks, seven of nine players 5-star players committed to Sarkisian near signing day.
That is why Sarkisian is so patient.
Finally, here is an overall look at the months Sarkisian has picked up commitments as a head coach at Washington, USC, and Texas.
1st January – 0
1st February – 6
March – 4
April –13
May – 9
June – 21
July – 15
August – 15
September – 3
October – 4
November – 7
December – 25
2nd January – 23
2nd February – 20
--- Consider any commitments Sarkisian picks up between January and March as a pleasant surprise.
--- Sarkisian’s recruiting sweet spot is between June and August.
--- June is when fans should expect to see a recruiting uptick.
--- Do not expect much activity between September and November.
--- Sarkisian historically finishes strong before signing day.
“We do so much recruiting now in June,” Sarkisian previously said. “Official visits and players being on campus and then you get commitments. I feel like sometimes a guy commits to you that you have to recruit him even harder because everyone's going to come after those same players that are committed to you.
“So, we're still going to recruit hard in the month of December. We recognize the early signing period. But that doesn't mean other people aren't still trying to get guys on visits and those types of things. We've got to close well in December.”
It is time to embrace Sarkisian's winning formula for recruiting success
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
Trust me, everyone can identify with this one
Drunk Randoke every Saturday during football season
When a Comic Con enthusiast gets his revenge
I did not see that coming
Sports On A Dime
1. During my research for this column, I uncovered a fascinating recruiting philosophy from Steve Sarkisian that I have never seen discussed during his Longhorn tenure. I watched Sarkisian's 2015 press conference after obtaining the top-ranked recruiting class at USC, and out of nowhere, he expressed his philosophy on out-of-state recruiting.
"Philosophically, our first goal is to take care of Southern California and take care of California in general," Sarkisian said. "I think we really did that. It's a credit to our coaching staff, that they were able to identify, in our opinion, the top talent in Southern California, solidify it, and get it ocked in.
"The next piece to this philosophically is that the moment we get on an airplane to go out of state, we're going to recruit players that we deem have the potential to be first-round draft picks. That's why you go get a Chuma Edoga in Atlanta, Georgia, or Ronald Jones in Dallas, Texas, Osa [Masina] and Porter [Gustin] in Utah."
-- RB Ronald Jones was a second-round pick by Tampa Bay in 2018.
-- OG Chuma Edoga emerged into a third-round pick by the New York Jets.
--- DE Porter Gustin spent four seasons in the NFL as an undrafted free agent.
--- LB Osa Masina pleaded guilty in a sexual assault case and was sentenced to one year in a Utah jail.
Keep Sarkisian's recruiting philosophy in mind when he picks up out-of-state commitments at Texas.
(Go to the two-minute mark)
2. Big 12 Media Days will begin on July 12 and the expectations for this upcoming season are not only high from Longhorn fans but every college football observer. Sarkisian will arguably face the highest expectations of his coaching career in 2023. On paper, Sarkisian has the Big 12’s most talented team. Hopefully, for the sanity of OB, Sarkisian brings the entire team to Arlington for the title game in December.
3. Speaking of Big 12 Media Days, the name of one participant caught my attention – TCU tight end Jared Wiley. Yes, the former Texas Longhorn.
Former Texas coach Tom Herman once predicted that Wiley would play in the NFL. That prediction occurred early during Wiley’s tenure at Texas. Wiley transferred to TCU last year and finished with 24 catches for 245 yards and four touchdowns. A year later, Wiley is a team leader at TCU.
4. Another thing I noticed about Big 12 Media Days is nine quarterbacks will participate in the event. That means nine coaches are confident about their starting quarterback, which is a higher number than I expected.
Last season, only four QBs attended Big 12 Media Days (Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma; Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State; Adrian Martinez, Kansas State; and Jalon Daniels, Kansas). To be fair, the Big 12 added four teams this season.
Baylor – Blake Shapen
BYU – Kedon Solvis
Kansas – Jalon Daniels
Texas – Quinn Ewers
Cincinnati – Emory Jones
UCF – John Rhys Plumlee
Kansas State – Will Howard
Oklahoma – Dillon Gabriel
Texas Tech – Tyler Shough
5. Enjoy this trip down memory lane
6. I am glad this event well for former Texas football player Peter Mpagi. Props to Mpagi for bouncing back from a heart transplant. Mpagi wants to get into coaching and hopefully, he will get an opportunity in the future.
7. If I were a gambling man, I would consider throwing some money on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Penix led the nation in passing yards (4,461) and was 13th in touchdown passes (31). I like that low-risk/high-reward bet on Pennix.
8. I have heard some people suggest college athletes should become employees in the future but that sounds like a huge mess. The easiest NIL solution for every program complaining about paying players is to cut coaches' salaries. Is a coach worth $100 million? Sure, you are worth whatever someone is willing to pay. Honestly, it is hard to hear complaints from millionaire coaches about players getting paid.
9. RIP Ryan Mallett
10. Mike Tyson turned 57-years-old this past week. Let that soak in. Yep, we are getting old.
