(From Anwar)
We are about to enter the fun — and crazy — part of the college football season.
The AP Poll and Coaches Poll have kept us entertained from the preseason until this week. However, college football fans need not continue monitoring those polls next week. The only poll that matters will be unveiled on Tuesday.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its first ranking of the 2024 season on Tuesday. This will be the first year of the 12-team college football playoff format. The 12 participating teams will include the five conference champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams.
Rich Clark, Executive Director of the CFP, and Brett Daniels, Senior Director of Communications, spent nearly an hour explaining the committee’s selection process this week. I think there is a lot of information that will shed light on the playoff topics that have been discussed on OB recently.
Let’s unpack it.
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--- The committee will meet every week to create their rankings and reveal them live on ESPN.
Here are the important dates:
--- Another important foundational piece is the playoff schedule. The first-round games will be on-campus home games for the higher seeds. Neutral site games begin during the quarterfinals.
--- The selection committee is comprised of 13 members. Six of the committee members are athletic directors, and seven are at-large members (former coaches, former players, and journalists). The committee members are Chris Ault, Chet Gladchuk, Jim Grobe, Warde Manuel (chair), Randall McDaniel, Gary Pinkel, Mack Rhoades, Mike Riley, David Sayler, Will Shields, Kelly Whiteside, Carla Williams, and Hunter Yurachek.
--- The committee members are given iPads that allow them to watch condensed versions of any game they desire. The removal of commercials, time stoppages, and halftime allows them to watch one game in about 45 minutes.
They will create their own Top 25 list and rank those teams each week.
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--- During the slideshow portion of the conference call, Clark used last year’s rankings with this year’s conference alignment to illustrate how teams would be ranked in 2024.
- Here is what the Top 25 would look like:
2. Here are the top five conference champions. Using the final 2023 rankings with current conference affiliations, No. 14 Arizona and No. 23 Liberty would have made the playoffs (Arizona automatically qualified as the Big 12 champion, and Liberty finished as the highest-ranked Group of 5 school). Daniels said since Liberty was ranked No. 23 and outside of their top 12 teams rankings, that is why the school was dropped to No. 12 in the playoff rankings.
- Here are the playoff teams:
4. Here is the final playoff bracket:
***
This section should shed light on what to expect in the upcoming weeks.
--- Clark was asked how the committee would judge teams that sustained a loss in the conference championship game. Would that team be penalized? How would they measure a loss in the conference championship game versus other teams in the conference that sat at home and did not endure an additional loss?
"That's actually something that we talked about with the committee members," Clark said. "And what I'll say is, in the discussion, what I realized is they're sophisticated enough to know that in a conference championship game, you have the top two teams in the conference playing. If the third-place team is sitting out, and they're not putting it on the table and actually risking a loss in that conference championship, the committee is sophisticated enough to understand and take that into account. All wins aren't created equal, and all losses aren't created equal either. I will say it depends on what the loss looks like. It depends on who we're talking about as a third-place team, so they will take that all into consideration.
"I honestly don't think that a team would be unduly penalized if they lost in a conference championship game. It'll be taken into account appropriately, and the committee will do that in a sophisticated way."
--- Any home team hosting a first-round game has the option of moving that contest to an NFL stadium if it logistically works better for that school.
--- The committee must honor the bowl contracts it has for the quarterfinals for the next two years. That means the SEC Champion will play in the Sugar Bowl and the Big Ten champion in the Rose Bowl because of their conference ties to those bowl games. For proximity reasons, the ACC champ will play in the Peach Bowl and the Big 12 Champ in the Fiesta Bowl.
--- In the semifinals, the top seed will have priority and be placed in the nearest bowl game. The next highest seed will appear in the other bowl game.
That means if Texas advances to the semifinals this season, it will need to be the highest seed remaining to appear in the Cotton Bowl on January 10. If not, the Longhorns would play in the Orange Bowl.
--- The Peach Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl do not have contractual relationships with any of the conferences, so they’re a little bit more flexible in terms of the teams that can be assigned to those locations.
--- A reporter who covers Indiana asked how the public can be assured the committee will rank the best teams as opposed to the biggest names. He used Notre Dame (7-1), a team that was defeated by Northern Illinois, being ranked 8th in the AP Poll over an undefeated Indiana (8-0).
Clark said, "Record matters, but we're not trying to pick the most deserving teams. We're trying to pick the best teams. This committee's got to look at their entire body of work. They're going to consider record, of course. That matters; wins and losses still matter. But they're also going to look at strength of schedule. They're going to look at head-to-head competitions and how teams perform against each other. They're going to look at how they perform against common opponents as well.
"Then there's just that eye test of, what did they do on the field? How did they perform? Even in a loss, how did they perform? The beauty of this, I think one of the beauties of this whole process is, that a loss early in the season may not completely derail a team. Maybe it'll change their seeding, maybe it'll change their ranking, but it doesn't completely derail them. I think what fans have to know is that the committee is going to look at the entire body of work, not just record. Doesn't matter what conference they're coming from."
--- In addition, Clark said strength of schedule will be an important metric used by the committee.
Clark was asked how they measure strength of schedule when conferences are larger and every team does not play each other.
"Strength of schedule still matters," Clark said. "Even within the conference, it's hard to compare teams, because they have different schedules, but strength of schedule is the metric that we use to sort of balance that out, even within a conference. I think the same concept applies, from my perspective."
--- However, Clark said, "Like I mentioned, they watch these games to give them an opportunity to have put some judgment into it, but the eye test means a lot."
--- The committee will use a company named SportSource Analytics to obtain their analytics. That website’s analytics are not available to the public.
--- The committee will not manipulate the bracket to avoid a regular-season rematch in the playoffs. Clark said if a rematch occurs in the playoffs, or if two teams could play for a third time in one season, with the last game being in the postseason, the committee will not consider that factor.
******
(Suchomel)
Let’s take a deeper look at the release of this week’s 2025 Recruiting Board …
QUARTERBACK
NEEDS – 1
COMMITMENTS – 1
KJ Lacey – Texas commitment – Nothing to see here. Lacey remains locked in with his UT commitment.
Flip candidates - none
RUNNING BACK
NEEDS – 2
COMMITMENTS – 2
Rickey Stewart – Texas commitment – He’s a man of very few words but has never wavered on his commitment.
James Simon – Texas commitment – Simon was locked in with Texas long before he actually committed.
Flip candidates - none
WIDE RECEIVER
NEEDS – 3 OR 4
COMMITMENTS – 3
Jaime Ffrench – Texas commitment – One of the most exciting players in this year’s class.
Kaliq Lockett – Texas commitment – Lockett’s been all Texas for about six months.
Daylan McCutcheon – Texas commitment – Recent flip from Florida State says he’s locked in with Texas and not looking back.
Flip candidates
Kelshaun Johnson – Texas A&M commitment – 30% - Texas has stayed in contact but we’ll see how hard the staff pushes with McCutcheon now committed. Johnson is happy with his A&M pledge but does like Texas quite a bit.
TIGHT END
NEEDS – 2
COMMITMENTS – 2
Emaree Winston – Texas commitment – There was a time when Winston was looking around a bit, but he’s shut that stuff down.
Nick Townsend – Texas commitment – Best tight end in the state and an underrated prospect in my opinion.
Michael Terry – 65% (UP) – He’s not truly a tight end, but we’re grouping him here. This one’s been kind of up and down (mostly up) but things are looking better and better for Texas.
Flip candidates - none
OFFENSIVE LINE
NEEDS – 4 OR 5
COMMITMENTS – 5
Jackson Christian – Texas commitment – Head-to-head win over A&M and Christian has never looked back.
Jordan Coleman and Devin Coleman – Texas commitments – Two of three Coleman triplets that will wear burnt orange.
John Mills – Texas commitment – It’s been a while since Mills has visited Texas but that should change for one of the remaining home games.
Nick Brooks – The big fella was at the Georgia game and has stayed more solid than I expected if I’m being honest.
Flip candidates
Michael Fasusi – Oklahoma commitment – 25% - We’ll put him on the list because people ask about him and Texas has stayed in touch, but I don’t see him being part of UT’s class.
DEFENSIVE END
NEEDS – 2 OR 3
COMMITMENTS – 2
Lance Jackson – Texas commitment – Don’t be shocked if he’s at Arkansas when Texas is in Fayetteville, but that’ll purely be to watch his brother and his future teammates in orange and white.
Smith Orogbo – Texas commitment – Season-ending surgery for Orogbo but he’s a player with intriguing long-term upside.
Javion Hilson – 50% (DOWN) – I might have this number a bit low because of recency bias following the A&M visit, but there’s a belief in College Station that they really moved the needle last weekend.
Flip candidates - none
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
NEEDS – 2 OR 3
COMMITMENTS – 2
Myron Charles – Texas commitment – He’s kind of gone back and forth on if he’ll continue to look at other schools but seems pretty happy with his decision when we’ve talked to him.
Josiah Sharma – Texas commitment – Another guy that doesn’t say much but he hasn’t given any indication that he’s unhappy with his pledge.
Joseph Mbatchou – 55% (UP) – He still has visits to take but Texas is in a position of strength right now.
Justus Terry – 30% (UP) – He did take a Texas official and he did tell OB he really enjoyed it, but it’s still tough to picture him being in this class in the end.
Flip candidates
Chace Sims – Texas A&M commitment – 40% - He’s trying to keep a low profile but he did sneak in for the Texas game against Georgia and an official visit wouldn’t surprise me.
Zion Williams – LSU commitment – 25% - Feels like this one is all but dead.
Kevin Wynn – Florida State commitment – 30% - I’m not sure he’ll stick with FSU but I also don’t think he’ll wind up at Texas.
Braxton Kyle – Rutgers commitment - 20% - If Texas pushes to get him on campus, this one could get interesting in a hurry.
Caleb Bell – Arkansas commitment – 20% - Similar situation to Braxton Kyle … if Texas brings him in for a visit it’ll be worth really paying attention to.
LINEBACKER
NEEDS – 3 OR 4
COMMITMENTS – 2
Bo Barnes – Texas commitment – Underrated player with tremendous upside.
Jonathan Cunningham – Texas commitment – A bit undersized by traditional standards but he has lots of athleticism.
Madden Faraimo – 35% - Holding steady with this one. Texas will need to get him on campus again, which could happen, to have a shot. USC and Notre Dame currently lead.
Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng – 30% (UP) – We won’t have much of a read on this one until he takes his official visit, which will be his first time on campus.
Kellen Wiley – 30% (UP) – Might be tough to get him out of Florida but he is planning on visiting Texas next month.
Flip candidates
Riley Pettijohn – Ohio State commitment - 30% - He was at the game against Georgia but I continue to believe he’s going to be a tough guy to flip.
DEFENSIVE BACK
NEEDS – 3 OR 4
COMMITMENTS – 2
Caleb Chester – Texas commitment – He’s about as locked in as a commitment can be.
Jonah Williams – Texas commitment – A recent injury ended his senior season but he’ll head to Austin in January.
Flip candidates
Courtland Guillory – Oklahoma commitment – 35% - He did come in for the game against Georgia but he’s remained silent since that visit. His dad did tell OB they enjoyed the experience so we’ll see if this one progresses.
Dorian Brew – Oregon commitment – 40% - I don’t mind admitting this one’s a bit of a guess because Brew doesn’t really tell anybody anything.
Cobey Sellers – Texas A&M commitment – 25% - Texas stays in touch but he’s pretty happy with his decision.
