Two special elections in Florida tomorrow. Both very red districts, well over R+20.
In both, early voting and polls show much tighter races than the district rating would suggest.
Do I think the Dems win either? No. I’m doubtful either will even be very close.
But what happens if they are? Right now, Trump absolutely OWNS the GOP. Everything he wants, he gets. But when you have an essentially lame duck president pissing off voters, eventually the other GOP pols will have to pay attention.
The number to me is 10. Anything over a 10 point margin for the R candidates and it’s nothing burger. But if the races are tight, look for a little pushback from Pubs in tighter districts.
In both, early voting and polls show much tighter races than the district rating would suggest.
Do I think the Dems win either? No. I’m doubtful either will even be very close.
But what happens if they are? Right now, Trump absolutely OWNS the GOP. Everything he wants, he gets. But when you have an essentially lame duck president pissing off voters, eventually the other GOP pols will have to pay attention.
The number to me is 10. Anything over a 10 point margin for the R candidates and it’s nothing burger. But if the races are tight, look for a little pushback from Pubs in tighter districts.
