Normally, polls this far out are not particularly helpful. But this is not a normal cycle. Both Clinton and Trump are very well known. Both have high negatives, so the winner is going to be the one disliked less than the other.
Also, Trump has made much of polling. From the day he announced his candidacy, he led pretty much every national Republican primary poll. I believe Nate Silver stated Trump led 94% of national primary polls. Yet, Silver and many other pundits discounted the polls and believed Trump would eventually fade. But obviously he did not fade.
Now the situation is reversed. 90% plus of the polls show Clinton beating Trump. Many polls show her lead in high single digits or better. The recent CNN/ORC poll showed Clinton up by 13. That is likely an outlier at this point. As is the Rassmussen poll showing Trump with a two point lead. Both of those polls were conducted before Trump wrapped up the nomination.
It will be interesting to see how Trump reacts if the polls show him trailing substantially over the next month or so. Will he seek to dominate news cycles by saying more and more outrageous things?
The most recent poll I could find was from Georgia, not national:
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/0...lary-clinton-in-a-statistical-tie-in-georgia/
Trump leads by less than a point in that poll. Obviously, he is going to lose the election badly if he only wins Georgia by a point.
Also, Trump has made much of polling. From the day he announced his candidacy, he led pretty much every national Republican primary poll. I believe Nate Silver stated Trump led 94% of national primary polls. Yet, Silver and many other pundits discounted the polls and believed Trump would eventually fade. But obviously he did not fade.
Now the situation is reversed. 90% plus of the polls show Clinton beating Trump. Many polls show her lead in high single digits or better. The recent CNN/ORC poll showed Clinton up by 13. That is likely an outlier at this point. As is the Rassmussen poll showing Trump with a two point lead. Both of those polls were conducted before Trump wrapped up the nomination.
It will be interesting to see how Trump reacts if the polls show him trailing substantially over the next month or so. Will he seek to dominate news cycles by saying more and more outrageous things?
The most recent poll I could find was from Georgia, not national:
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/0...lary-clinton-in-a-statistical-tie-in-georgia/
Trump leads by less than a point in that poll. Obviously, he is going to lose the election badly if he only wins Georgia by a point.
