View from the Cheap Seats-Preseason
Get your Kool Aid Ready
Get your Kool Aid Ready
From the time of the Spring Game to the return of real football during Zero Week, football fans and the Cheap Seats are finally released from our own personal Hades that is the dreaded OFF SEASON. Our journey through the desert is now complete for another year with the joy of the greatest sport in the land now at our doorstep. To steal a popular line with a twist (get your popcorn ready), there has not been a more anticipated season for fans of the Burnt Orange since 2009. Time to chug some Kool-Aid my Burnt Orange friends and demented fans as expectations are sky high and for good reason. It has been 14 years since TEXAS fans entered a year realistically thinking TEXAS has a chance to win it all. Couple this with the excitement of moving to the SEC. Let’s be candid, the SEC has been the most obvious fit geographically for TEXAS and it offers a passion for football, top to bottom, unmatched across the nation. This Longhorn team stacked with talent and led onto the field by a Heisman Trophy favorite with a defense which has gotten better each year (more on that to come). The future’s so bright. . ..we gotta wear shades.
Oh wait, it gets even better. This is Year 1 of the new 12-team College Football Playoff system. A bit of a convoluted process and in the “everybody gets a trophy” category, the Top Group of 5 conference champ gets a bid. More of that story, DO NOT be the 12th seed because if you are number 12 in the final CFB poll, you may well be playing in the Cheez-It Pumpernickel Bowl as a Group of 5 team takes your spot. (we joke, the Cheez-It bowl is a New Year’s Day played on New Year’s Eve this year game, a nice consolation prize for those who miss the anointed 12). Take last year’s final CFB Playoff rankings for example. Our friends the Dirt Burglars finished ranked #12. They would be bumped from the playoffs in favor of 13-0 Liberty because Liberty was the highest-ranked Group of 5 champions. Could not have happened to a better bunch.
The 4 Conference champions get a bye in round 1. The twist for Teams seeded 5-8, they get to host a home playoff game which is pretty cool. The downside those teams would need to win 4 post-season games to win it all. What was it Armadillo Slim said, as long as I have a chip and a chair. Or was that the other Slim who said that? Would be pretty cool to see another home date at DKR. OTOH, a trip to the Big House and blustery winter conditions might be a bit daunting for some. Still will be interesting. In the past 1 loss wasn’t the end of a playoff bid but 2 losses certainly were. Depending on how the losses fall, you could have 3 losses but win the conference and your seat is assured with a bye. Fun times ahead.
Let’s focus on our Horns. Through his 1st two seasons, the questions surrounding Coach Sarkisian were numerous. Opening with a 5-7 record in Year 1 was a head-scratcher for many. We saw improvement in Year 2 and by the end of Year 3, Sark had the Horns rolling as they DESTROYED Texas Tech before dismantling Oklahoma State to win the “bookend” Conference Title on our way out the door. Why bookend? In 1996 we faced Nebraska in the inaugural Big XII title match and won that as well.
With the humbling of Okie Lite in the Conference Title Game, TEXAS was invited to their first 4-team playoff game. TEXAS started their playoff game with UDub slow with 2 key fumbles in the 1st half but finished VERY STRONG, literally throwing into the end zone to win that game as time expired. They faced an excellent team in Washington, a team too many fans both overlooked and underrated. This was made worse by NFL 1st round QB Michael Penix going off on his career day. Sometimes you have to tip your hat to the other guy. ZERO apologies for that performance by our Horns.
Now is the time to say WE’RE BACK.
Offensively the Horns return a Heiman front runner (in the Top 3) at quarterback, an offensive line competing for the Joe Moore Award (best OL in football). Sadly we have lost our Top 5 pass catchers to the NFL as well as RB1 from last year. All is not lost though, the talent at WR in Austin thanks to some amazing transfers is off the hook with potential. As Dandy Don once said, potential means you ain’t done it yet. How fast do they get on the same page with Quinn? The Spring
Game seems to indicate they will do that quickly. Also, we now go 6 deep at WR and even Sark admits he will have a much deeper rotation this year, great news. In the past, Sark has been reluctant to rotate much beyond starters at WR. It is hard to imagine but the WRs have a chance to be a better group top to bottom than last year.
QB room
Good news, One can argue that TEXAS enjoys the best QB room in the nation. Bad news, you can only play 1 QB at a time and you don’t want to rotate them. Quinn Ewers is looking to build on an excellent year. Behind him is a player of QB royalty, young Arch Manning who has looked great in limited action and seems poised to take the reigns in 2025. We think we see a bit of a break from tradition and that Sark will work to get Arch into blow out games earlier than normal. The wild card here is Quinn has not played a full season dating back to early in high school. We hope Quinn starts 16 to 17 games (depending on whether TEXAS gets the bye in the playoffs) but the great news for the Horns, our backup will be ready.
NEXT:
Unlike the QB room, this is the word we shall use to describe the running back room which lost Johnathan Brooks to the NFL and lost RB1 CJ Baxter for the season with injury. Jaden Blue, you are up. Many think Jaden was at worst RB1b. While CJ was the “big back” of the two with Blue as the speed back, at 6 foot and 200, Blue is no smurf. Still, our RB1 is inexperienced with only 65 carries. Behind him is Tre Wisner, another talented and inexperienced back with only 12 carries. Additionally talented freshman Christian Clark is also out for the season leaving fellow talented freshman Jerrick Gibson to be counted on more than expected. The best news here, RB is the easiest position to transition from one level to the next.
Sark’s teams here have recorded right at or just over 35 points per game. While there is lots of inexperience at the skill spots, we’d like to see Sark go from the #15 to #24 range in scoring into GD land. From 1998 to 2009, GDs offenses finished in the Top 10 every year save one where we were #13. 2010 was a disaster and an outlier. The fun part of this, TEXAS/Sark has room to be even better.
Let us spend a minute on Sark’s coaching. We alluded above to his stubborn unwillingness to use more of his WRs in the past, keeping his rotation primarily to his Top 3 or 4. Sark has already stated he plans to use his Top 6 which we think will pay big dividends. One of the problems of recruiting such great talent, only one football to share. Bad news, TEXAS has never had a Biletnikoff winner (best WR) and with a 6 deep rotation, doubtful any one WR has a chance. Good problem to have.
Even at 5-7, there was not the outcry for Sark’s head like there was early in both Mensa and CFS’ time on the 40. In no small part this is because of who Sark is as a person and how he relates to his players. For a look at this, check out ESPN’s SEC Network’s feature on him. You can see how he connects to his players. There is an authenticity to his approach. One quote of his in the ESPN feature was during a team meeting, he talked about the “pain of discipline vs the pain of disappointment”. Like Mack Brown before him, he is not just developing football players but men. He is an outstanding recruiter and perhaps more importantly, he has done an excellent job of developing a staff that is top-notch. We think the key to this has been the hiring of Coach Kyle Flood who has recruited the best and deepest offensive line at TEXAS since DKR.
2024 presents Sark with a head coaching challenge he has not faced, being one of the leaders of the pack with National not just conference implications. Expectations are sky high and anything less than a playoff appearance and at least 1 round of advancement will candidly be a disappointment. Some have TEXAS winning the SEC in year 1 and we are Top 10 in all polls, Top 5 in most. Every week TEXAS will be the #1 or #2 “circled” game on every opponent's schedule. While this isn’t new, the quality of the opposition certainly will be. Our biggest concern is the 2nd half “let downs” we have seen in the past Last year Sark/TEXAS allowed a couple of mutts to hang round, specifically Houston and TCU. Still, it was clear Sark has grown as a Head Coach year after year.
On the other side of the ball,
Pete Kwiatkowski (Coach K from now on) arrived from UDub as a big question mark. One of the comments that stuck with us was his former players saying it took 3 years to fully learn his schemes. We consider 2 stats that matter most, scoring offense and scoring defense. While Sark has been very consistent on the offensive side, the defensive numbers present a very different picture. Coach K’s D has gone from being ranked #99 in the nation in Year 1 (NOT very good) to a respectable #27 then finished #15 last year. Things are coming together on the D side of the ball.
If we were to rank position groups on the team, our DBs might finish at or near the bottom. This is not for a lack of talent but they have been lit up at times. Now the fastest way to make DBs look better is pass rush and this is where we think our 2024 defensive line will make their biggest impact, much better pass rush.
Our run D likely takes a step back as we lost 2 stars in the middle. Ant Hill appears to be a star on the rise and will man the middle of the D. Byrron Sorrell made the pre-season “All Freak” team, those athletes with abilities that are off the charts. Coach K’s charges will not backslide too far this year.
Special teams are a bit of a mixed bag. Burt Auburn is outstanding as the kicker but our punter is a complete unknown at this point.
Offensive Player of the Year
Quinn Ewers who will make a run at the Heisman this year. Biggest question mark? Can he play in all games? Otherwise, we think he has a big year.
Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the year
Trey Moore, transfer from UTSA. We think he has the biggest/most obvious impact on the team. We have not had a player so disruptive since Joseph Ossai left for the show. We suspect one of 3 transfer WRs will finish 2nd in impact.
Unheralded Coach of the Year
Torre Becton does not get mentioned enough for his role in player development. Not only does Sark recruit extremely talented players, his staff does a great job of developing said players. At least part of the credit needs to go to the Strength & Conditioning coach who is having a strong impact on the team.
Stats that Matter
- TEXAS finished 2023 with a Defensive Red Zone TD rate of just 38%, this is championship-level play
- TEXAS only scored Red Zone TDs at a 50% rate, when you get in the red zone, you need to put the ball in the endzone. 2009 for comparison, was a 70% rate
- #70 in 3rd down conversion rate in the nation. Got to sustain more drives
- #33 in 4th down conversion rate at over 60%. Much better
Where does Sark rate in terms of Head Coaches at TEXAS?
#1 is easy, nobody is close to DKR
#2 Mack Brown
Then a wide gulf to #3. The battle for 3rd place is not so clear today. Front runners are Dana X Bible and Fred Akers along with Sark. He’ll need a National Title to have a debate for the #2 spot but we are looking forward to that as we think he is on his way. Have to add, Bible coached football, baseball AND basketball at TEXAS.
Dana X Bible
- 10 Seasons
- 3 Conference titles
- 2-1 in Cotton Bowls
- 5 AP ranked seasons
- Coached Basketball and Baseball at Texas too
- 10 Seasons
- 2 Conference Titles
- Played for 1 National Title and was blown out
- Played in Cotton Bowl which could have been a National title (with Miami’s upset) but poor offense and a fumble killed TEXAS
- 5 AP ranked seasons, 3 Top 5
- 1-2 in Cotton Bowls, 2-7 over all bowl record
Today Sark is at best #5 but I can see him at #3 within 2 seasons. Win a National title, he might be making an argument for #2. I’ve got X at #3 today based on 1 extra conference title and a better bowl record. Freddy kinda sucked in bowl games but he’s a razor-close nod over Sark. . . .today.
Sark’s Coaching Tree
Jeff Choate’s Nevada team was a 27-point underdog and gave SMU everything they wanted in Reno with help from Savion Red. We wish Coach Choate well.
Personal note
We were pleased to have received a note this weekend. One of our more popular readers got a clean bill of health with his cancer fight. Have we mentioned “F Cancer” recently? This was great news to a very passionate Horn. Looking forward to more grilling stories and some fresh caught Halibut fish and chips.
Cheap Seats Pre-Season Prediction
10-2 regular season. Loss to the Dawgs and 1 other stumble along the way but NOT in our last regular season game. SEC title game appearance vs Georgia. Win and a 1st round bye. Though would not be sad to see a Mizzu or Ole Miss face the Dawgs so TEXAS gets a December home game in round 1 of the playoffs.
Watch list players:
- Outland Trophy(best lineman)-Kelvin Banks OT
- Remmington Award (best Center)-Jake Majors
- Davey O’Brian (Best QB) Quinn Ewers
- Butkus Award (Best LB) Ant Hill
- Doak Walker Award (best RB) CJ Baxter (out for the season) and Jaden Blue
2023 recap (lots of Craig Way’s call of the game mixed in)
Last edited:
