The Longhorns (28-2, 14-1) need this win over the Gators (14-15, 5-10) to lock up at least a share of the SEC regular season championship. This will also be the final regular season home game for Shay Holle and Taylor Jones, possibly Rori Harmon and/or Aaliyah Moore. All 4 seniors will be honored after the game but Rori and A-Mo have medical redshirt years they could use and return next season. Both have stated they haven't made their decisions yet.
Shay Holle - The 2nd best prospect (#97 overall) in Karen Aston's least regarded recruiting class, Shay stuck with her commitment through the coaching change and will leave the program with the most games played (162 and counting) and with the most wins of any player (126 and counting). She played sparingly her 1st season in Austin, getting into 23 games and averaging just 7.5 minutes. In the next 2 years, she was an important bench player and made 14 starts both years to close out the season after injuries to other guards. Between this season and last, she has 56 starts in 68 games, averaging 7.3 points and 2.6 rebounds. While her stats may not be eye-popping, her impact on the floor has been significant. She was a member of the 2024 Big12 All Defensive Team and an All-Big12 Honorable Mention. Off the court, she graduated from the McCombs School of Business in 3 years (multiple Academic All-Big12 First Teams). Shay's had several big moments in her tenure at Texas but her most significant may have been in the Longhorns' last game. WIth Texas' offensive struggles against Mississippi State in a game with regular season title implications, Shay scored all 16 of her points in the 2nd half, making 4/6 of her 3-pt attempts, to carry the Longhorns across the finish line for the win.
Taylor Jones - The #43 player in the class of 2019, the Forney (TX) native chose Oregon State to begin her college playing career. She got off to a fast start: PAC12 All-Freshman Team, PAC12 All-Defensive, All-Pac-12 Honorable Mention in her first season; All-Pac12 and PAC12 All-Defensive Honorable mention her sophomore year. Taylor's 3rd season was a disappointment as she suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery just 9 games into the schedule. She then entered the portal and despite her father being an aggy alum, returned to her home state to play for the Longhorns. Still recovering from injury, she appeared in 27 games (4 starts) and averaged 19.9 minutes while scoring 9.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in her 1st season (2022-2023) in Austin. She was never fully healthy in her 2nd season but still started 27 of 33 games (12.3 ppg, 6.3 rebounds) but worked her butt off and came into this season feeling better than she had since her freshman season in Corvallis. A valid argument could be made that she has been the rock for the Longhorns this season , scoring 10+ points in every SEC game when she's played 20+ minutes and recorded 7 double-doubles, none bigger than her 21 and 14 performance against Tennessee last month.
Because I'm hoping Rori and A-Mo return, I'm going to hold off.
On to the game. The Gators have 4 players averaging 10+ points per game:
Warren is the only Gator hitting better than 31.5% of her 3's (52/133, 39.1%) though McGill (41/130, 31.5%) and reserve G Kenza Salques (35/113, 31.0%) will shoot from distance as well.
Florida relies on its starters for 75% of its scoring and 65% of its rebounding. For comparison, Texas gets 60% of their points and 59% of their boards from the starting 5. The Gators average 17.2 turnovers per game (-2.1 differential) and ball security has gotten worse in their last 5 games (19.2, -3). In 4 of those 5 games (excluding the drubbing they took from SC), they've been pretty consistent offensively averaging 34.5 points in each half but seem to wear down defensively: -2.3 scoring in the 1st half, -11 in the 2nd.
Longhorns should wear down the Gators both mentally and physically in the 1st half and will hopefully be able to manage their starters' minutes. The Gators like to play an aggressive style and pace but don't be surprised to see them come out in a zone defense against a Texas team that has struggled significantly against it the past 2 games.
If Texas beats Florida and South Carolina avoids the upset at home against #15 Kentucky, it'll be an actual coin toss by SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey to determine which team gets seeded #1 in the conference tournament. According to the SEC, the coin flip will be televised live from the SEC office at halftime of the Ole Miss vs. LSU game, which will be broadcast on SEC Network. Tipoff for that game is 4 p.m. ET.
SEC WBB Tiebreakers:
@mln59 @thar0902 @icdb17 @wb3032 @BrownHorn
Shay Holle - The 2nd best prospect (#97 overall) in Karen Aston's least regarded recruiting class, Shay stuck with her commitment through the coaching change and will leave the program with the most games played (162 and counting) and with the most wins of any player (126 and counting). She played sparingly her 1st season in Austin, getting into 23 games and averaging just 7.5 minutes. In the next 2 years, she was an important bench player and made 14 starts both years to close out the season after injuries to other guards. Between this season and last, she has 56 starts in 68 games, averaging 7.3 points and 2.6 rebounds. While her stats may not be eye-popping, her impact on the floor has been significant. She was a member of the 2024 Big12 All Defensive Team and an All-Big12 Honorable Mention. Off the court, she graduated from the McCombs School of Business in 3 years (multiple Academic All-Big12 First Teams). Shay's had several big moments in her tenure at Texas but her most significant may have been in the Longhorns' last game. WIth Texas' offensive struggles against Mississippi State in a game with regular season title implications, Shay scored all 16 of her points in the 2nd half, making 4/6 of her 3-pt attempts, to carry the Longhorns across the finish line for the win.
Taylor Jones - The #43 player in the class of 2019, the Forney (TX) native chose Oregon State to begin her college playing career. She got off to a fast start: PAC12 All-Freshman Team, PAC12 All-Defensive, All-Pac-12 Honorable Mention in her first season; All-Pac12 and PAC12 All-Defensive Honorable mention her sophomore year. Taylor's 3rd season was a disappointment as she suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery just 9 games into the schedule. She then entered the portal and despite her father being an aggy alum, returned to her home state to play for the Longhorns. Still recovering from injury, she appeared in 27 games (4 starts) and averaged 19.9 minutes while scoring 9.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in her 1st season (2022-2023) in Austin. She was never fully healthy in her 2nd season but still started 27 of 33 games (12.3 ppg, 6.3 rebounds) but worked her butt off and came into this season feeling better than she had since her freshman season in Corvallis. A valid argument could be made that she has been the rock for the Longhorns this season , scoring 10+ points in every SEC game when she's played 20+ minutes and recorded 7 double-doubles, none bigger than her 21 and 14 performance against Tennessee last month.
Because I'm hoping Rori and A-Mo return, I'm going to hold off.
On to the game. The Gators have 4 players averaging 10+ points per game:
- 5' 9" G Liv McGill - 16.4 ppg
- 6' 6" C Ra Shaya Kyle - 14.8 ppg, 9.0 rpg
- 6' G Jeriah Warren - 12.0 ppg
- 6' 1" G Laila Reynolds - 10.7 ppg
Warren is the only Gator hitting better than 31.5% of her 3's (52/133, 39.1%) though McGill (41/130, 31.5%) and reserve G Kenza Salques (35/113, 31.0%) will shoot from distance as well.
Florida relies on its starters for 75% of its scoring and 65% of its rebounding. For comparison, Texas gets 60% of their points and 59% of their boards from the starting 5. The Gators average 17.2 turnovers per game (-2.1 differential) and ball security has gotten worse in their last 5 games (19.2, -3). In 4 of those 5 games (excluding the drubbing they took from SC), they've been pretty consistent offensively averaging 34.5 points in each half but seem to wear down defensively: -2.3 scoring in the 1st half, -11 in the 2nd.
Longhorns should wear down the Gators both mentally and physically in the 1st half and will hopefully be able to manage their starters' minutes. The Gators like to play an aggressive style and pace but don't be surprised to see them come out in a zone defense against a Texas team that has struggled significantly against it the past 2 games.
If Texas beats Florida and South Carolina avoids the upset at home against #15 Kentucky, it'll be an actual coin toss by SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey to determine which team gets seeded #1 in the conference tournament. According to the SEC, the coin flip will be televised live from the SEC office at halftime of the Ole Miss vs. LSU game, which will be broadcast on SEC Network. Tipoff for that game is 4 p.m. ET.
SEC WBB Tiebreakers:
- Won-lost results of head-to-head competition between the teams.
- South Carolina and Texas went 1-1 this season
- Won-lost results of the two teams versus the highest seed (and proceeding through the lowest seed, if necessary).
- Both teams are the highest seed and currently undefeated against the rest of the conference
- Coin flip by the commissioner.
@mln59 @thar0902 @icdb17 @wb3032 @BrownHorn
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