Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - High 6's
15 Year Conventional - High 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
Texas Home Prices -
In November 2024, home prices in Texas were up 2.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $344,000. On average, the number of homes sold was up 6.0% year over year and there were 23,573 homes sold in November this year, up 22,234 homes sold in November last year. The median days on the market was 58 days, up 11 year over year.
In November 2024, there were 148,036 homes for sale in Texas, up 11.7% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 28,057 and down 10.9% year over year. The average months of supply is 5 months, up 0 year over year.
Texas Housing Demand -
In November 2024, 11.3% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 2.1 points year over year. There were only 28.3% of homes that had price drops, up from 27.0% of homes in November last year. There was a 97.0% sale-to-list price, down 0.11 points year over year.
Fed Action Turns Hawkish & Rates for The New Year -
As widely anticipated, the FOMC delivered a hawkish 25bps rate cut today and revised its forecast to just two 25bps cuts in 2025. During Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, he highlighted the recent uptick in inflation. He stated, “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” While the Fed's latest forecast indicates a total of 50bps in rate cuts, markets are pricing in even less.
With the theme of “lower-but-slower” now reinforced by the Fed’s latest projections, interest rates found little resistance in moving higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury settled near recent highs at 4.50%. Mortgages followed suit, with current coupon MBS giving back 19/32nds in price by the end of the day. It was a tough day not just for rates and bonds, but also for the stock market, which lost some of its recent bullish momentum due to the prospect of persistent borrowing costs.
Disappointing news, but not unexpected – we still see interest rates contained within recent ranges, with mortgage rates in the 6s throughout most of the upcoming year.
Economic growth should remain robust, inflation sticky, and some on the desk are increasingly concerned about job growth – not necessarily from tariffs and deportation, but from the surge in AI, a theme to watch closely in the new year.
New Demographic That Drove Up Housing Prices May Start Driving Them Down -
The "Boomer Generation" is the wealthiest generation ever known. Senior "Home Equity" or the equity held by homeowners 62+ is over $13 Trillion. I've known from my Reverse Mortgage classes that over 10,000 people for the next 15 years will turn 62 making them eligible for social security and a reverse mortgage.
This generation as the video below points out is only 21% of the population but accounts for 38% of the homes owned in addition to being the wealthiest generation in the country.
While I refer reverse mortgages to my counterpart that specializes in them. On the one hand, I knew the sheer numbers of people turning 62 with all of the home-equity and rising cost of retirement would cause this specialized product to grow. I also knew their vast wealth and owing over 1/3rd the homes helped drive home prices upward over the last few decades.
On the other hand, I had not considered what would happen to the supply of homes entering the market as this generation moved into assisted living or passed away. The short video below is worth the watch.
Basically Freddie-Mac the second largest purchaser of mortgages research shows with all of these people going to assisted living and passing away there will be 9.2 million "Boomer" homes sold between now and 2035.
So the generation that drove prices higher may very well cause them to fall lower. I guess the old adage of "what goes up must come down" may apply to the housing influence of the "Boomer Generation".
Lots of other factors can happen between now and 2035, but nonetheless it's something of which to be aware.
Houston Commercial Building Auction Update -
Some of those from a thread on a commercial property wanted to know the final price of the auction @srl @Fuddy
Here was the result:
It May Get Worse
Dallas Suburbs -
Some including @TexMexman wanted additional information on Dallas suburbs - here is something I found in addition to the statewide data posted above:
Interesting chart as rising inventories can lead to lower prices with more supply on the market. Though as reflected for now homes are selling for slightly more this year over last. That's for statewide - remember that real estate is local. Also different price ranges can have different demand levels.
And There is This - Tacos Sell Homes in Dallas Burbs!
Dallas CBD Isn't Helping
@TexMexman I believe you and @Tampa 2 wanted some stats on Plano in particular...
What is the housing market like in Plano today?
In November 2024, Plano home prices were up 9.5% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $536K. On average, homes in Plano sell after 38 days on the market compared to 29 days last year. There were 187 homes sold in November this year, up from 145 last year.
Final Thoughts -
Christmas is a time for giving and for me it is also like every day a time for gratitude and thankfulness.
When it comes to this thread...
I hope that I am "giving" my fellow Orangebloods good information that may help them in their real estate endeavors.
I'm thankful for those that I've been honored to help on this site with their mortgages and the friendships we have developed.
Finally, I'm grateful for my employer Guaranteed Rate that provides me more products, the best app & platform along with some of the most competitive rates in the industry to serve my clients while allowing me to earn a decent living.
In addition, grateful to now over two decades on this one of a kind site - not only do we get the best Longhorn coverage - it's one of the few sites that if you only had one site to visit you'd be up to date on about everything from "how to eat chili" to "where to eat the best of anything anywhere in the world" and beyond including politics/movies/scrip clubs/world & national events - what can't you find on OB?
Shout out to the OB crew of @Ketchum @Suchomel @Anwar Richardson @ZachattheDisch @CodyCarpentier @Alex Dunlap and apologies to anyone at OB Staff that I missed. These guys seem to work 365 days a year to keep us up to date on all things that are Longhorn Sports and Recruiting.
May you and all of "OB Nation" have a Very Merry Christmas with your stockings stuffed with "Playoff Hardware" and "New Year's Championships"!
Beat Clemson!!!!!
Merry Christmas!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - High 6's
15 Year Conventional - High 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
Texas Home Prices -
In November 2024, home prices in Texas were up 2.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $344,000. On average, the number of homes sold was up 6.0% year over year and there were 23,573 homes sold in November this year, up 22,234 homes sold in November last year. The median days on the market was 58 days, up 11 year over year.
Top 10 Metros in Texas with the Fastest Growing Sales Price
- The Woodlands, TX 27.7%
- Cedar Hill, TX 23.6%
- Mission, TX 20.9%
- Northlake, TX 19.4%
- Fate, TX 18.9%
- Dickinson, TX 16.2%
- Southlake, TX 16.2%
- Canyon Lake, TX 16.1%
- Cleburne, TX 16.1%
- Frisco, TX 15.4%
In November 2024, there were 148,036 homes for sale in Texas, up 11.7% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 28,057 and down 10.9% year over year. The average months of supply is 5 months, up 0 year over year.
Texas Housing Demand -
In November 2024, 11.3% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 2.1 points year over year. There were only 28.3% of homes that had price drops, up from 27.0% of homes in November last year. There was a 97.0% sale-to-list price, down 0.11 points year over year.
Top 10 Most Competitive Cities in Texas
- Marble Falls, TX
- Horizon City, TX
- Pearland, TX
- The Woodlands, TX
- Haltom City, TX
- Lewisville, TX
- Bryan, TX
- Watauga, TX
- Carrollton, TX
- Euless, TX
Fed Action Turns Hawkish & Rates for The New Year -
As widely anticipated, the FOMC delivered a hawkish 25bps rate cut today and revised its forecast to just two 25bps cuts in 2025. During Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, he highlighted the recent uptick in inflation. He stated, “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” While the Fed's latest forecast indicates a total of 50bps in rate cuts, markets are pricing in even less.
With the theme of “lower-but-slower” now reinforced by the Fed’s latest projections, interest rates found little resistance in moving higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury settled near recent highs at 4.50%. Mortgages followed suit, with current coupon MBS giving back 19/32nds in price by the end of the day. It was a tough day not just for rates and bonds, but also for the stock market, which lost some of its recent bullish momentum due to the prospect of persistent borrowing costs.
Disappointing news, but not unexpected – we still see interest rates contained within recent ranges, with mortgage rates in the 6s throughout most of the upcoming year.
Economic growth should remain robust, inflation sticky, and some on the desk are increasingly concerned about job growth – not necessarily from tariffs and deportation, but from the surge in AI, a theme to watch closely in the new year.
New Demographic That Drove Up Housing Prices May Start Driving Them Down -
The "Boomer Generation" is the wealthiest generation ever known. Senior "Home Equity" or the equity held by homeowners 62+ is over $13 Trillion. I've known from my Reverse Mortgage classes that over 10,000 people for the next 15 years will turn 62 making them eligible for social security and a reverse mortgage.
This generation as the video below points out is only 21% of the population but accounts for 38% of the homes owned in addition to being the wealthiest generation in the country.
While I refer reverse mortgages to my counterpart that specializes in them. On the one hand, I knew the sheer numbers of people turning 62 with all of the home-equity and rising cost of retirement would cause this specialized product to grow. I also knew their vast wealth and owing over 1/3rd the homes helped drive home prices upward over the last few decades.
On the other hand, I had not considered what would happen to the supply of homes entering the market as this generation moved into assisted living or passed away. The short video below is worth the watch.
Basically Freddie-Mac the second largest purchaser of mortgages research shows with all of these people going to assisted living and passing away there will be 9.2 million "Boomer" homes sold between now and 2035.
So the generation that drove prices higher may very well cause them to fall lower. I guess the old adage of "what goes up must come down" may apply to the housing influence of the "Boomer Generation".
Lots of other factors can happen between now and 2035, but nonetheless it's something of which to be aware.
Houston Commercial Building Auction Update -
Some of those from a thread on a commercial property wanted to know the final price of the auction @srl @Fuddy
Here was the result:
It May Get Worse
Dallas Suburbs -
Some including @TexMexman wanted additional information on Dallas suburbs - here is something I found in addition to the statewide data posted above:
Interesting chart as rising inventories can lead to lower prices with more supply on the market. Though as reflected for now homes are selling for slightly more this year over last. That's for statewide - remember that real estate is local. Also different price ranges can have different demand levels.
And There is This - Tacos Sell Homes in Dallas Burbs!
Dallas CBD Isn't Helping
@TexMexman I believe you and @Tampa 2 wanted some stats on Plano in particular...
What is the housing market like in Plano today?
In November 2024, Plano home prices were up 9.5% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $536K. On average, homes in Plano sell after 38 days on the market compared to 29 days last year. There were 187 homes sold in November this year, up from 145 last year.
How hot is the Plano housing market?
Plano is somewhat competitive. Homes sell in 37 days.- Some homes get multiple offers.
- The average homes sell for about 2% below list price and go pending in around 37 days.
- Hot homes can sell for around list price and go pending in around 19 days.
Final Thoughts -
Christmas is a time for giving and for me it is also like every day a time for gratitude and thankfulness.
When it comes to this thread...
I hope that I am "giving" my fellow Orangebloods good information that may help them in their real estate endeavors.
I'm thankful for those that I've been honored to help on this site with their mortgages and the friendships we have developed.
Finally, I'm grateful for my employer Guaranteed Rate that provides me more products, the best app & platform along with some of the most competitive rates in the industry to serve my clients while allowing me to earn a decent living.
In addition, grateful to now over two decades on this one of a kind site - not only do we get the best Longhorn coverage - it's one of the few sites that if you only had one site to visit you'd be up to date on about everything from "how to eat chili" to "where to eat the best of anything anywhere in the world" and beyond including politics/movies/scrip clubs/world & national events - what can't you find on OB?
Shout out to the OB crew of @Ketchum @Suchomel @Anwar Richardson @ZachattheDisch @CodyCarpentier @Alex Dunlap and apologies to anyone at OB Staff that I missed. These guys seem to work 365 days a year to keep us up to date on all things that are Longhorn Sports and Recruiting.
May you and all of "OB Nation" have a Very Merry Christmas with your stockings stuffed with "Playoff Hardware" and "New Year's Championships"!
Beat Clemson!!!!!
Merry Christmas!
MH
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