Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Mid 6's
15 Year Conventional - High 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
Texas Real Estate Statistics for December 2024 -
Prices up slightly with more homes on the market - is it time to panic or are we returning to a more "Pre-Covid" real estate market? It's too early to say for sure - time will tell.
In January 2025, home prices in Texas were up 1.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $335,600. On average, the number of homes sold was down 1.2% year over year and there were 18,710 homes sold in January this year, down 19,024 homes sold in January last year. The median days on the market was 72 days, up 11 year over year.
In January 2025, 10.6% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 1.4 points year over year. There were only 30.4% of homes that had price drops, up from 26.0% of homes in January last year. There was a 96.9% sale-to-list price, down 0.0024 points year over year.
One surprising stat was to see Texas not in the Top 4 of states people are moving to as seen here - Nationwide, 27% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between Nov '24 - Jan '25. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
Buying vs Renting -
In close to 60% of the 341 county-level markets with enough data to analyze, owning is the more affordable choice, at least for those who can manage a 20% down payment. Significant differences in the affordability of owning versus renting exist among various regions of the country, with buying a residence most favorable in the Midwest and South, followed by the Northeast.
Though remember real estate is local and you should do your research to make the best financial decision for you. With real estate returning to historical norms of price appreciation - keep in mind that a rule of thumb is that it will take you about 3+ years to breakeven when you sell your home.
That's because you typically need about 3+ years of appreciation to recoup the costs to sell the home. I just had a conversation with one of our board veterans - he was looking to move in 1-3 years. When we broke down the numbers along with that he has a great rental rate it made more sense to rent based on the current numbers and their situation.
My point is that even if the numbers show it is less expensive to own versus rent, each person needs to look at their own situation including: how long they will be in their current city, how much they are paying for rent, does their employer cover relocation costs of selling your current home, appreciation rate of homes in your market.
Market Warning Signs -
As we mentioned above right now things are not in a panic mode, and it may be just a return to normal real estate markets without wild appreciation numbers from pandemic buying. But there are some "warning signs" that the housing market may be in a downturn. Here are a few items even in Texas that caught my eye.
Listings Are Soaring Even in Historically Buffered Areas -
With many government agencies seeing major cuts and reductions in force there has been a recent listing boom in Washington DC. This area has been buffered for years from real estate downturns that have effected other parts of the country because the government being it's largest employer. It is the second most expensive place to live behind Hawaii and the home prices have been high for a long time.
It is a pretty big shock for this area and has had a flood of posts across the internet. It's not there yet, but had we had the internet in the 80's I can only imagine this was the kind of images you would have seen in the Houston market when oil tanked from $42 BBL to $7 BBL.
New Listings Over $1,000,000 in DC
Coming Soon is the New "Buzz Word" in DC
Evidence is showing that the amount of listings indicate it should be a buyer's market, but for now interest rates are keeping many buyers out of the market. How long until home prices have significant drops?
Build to Rent -
Build to rent or where developers build entire rental communities continues to grow. As of 2023, build-to-rent properties made up an estimated 7.9% of single-family properties, but they’re currently on the rise. According to recent data, over 75,000 single-family built-for-rent properties began construction in 2023, which is about a 9% increase from 2022 and an all-time high.
Now when you see financing from major Wall Street Banks it may be a trend and segment that is here to stay. In my opinion it does provide a good alternative compared to apartments for families whose wager-earners may be transient in nature. On the other hand, they will require a strong management company to make sure they don't turn into a community of disrepair from lack of maintenance & upkeep.
Odds and Ends -
Austin looks to regulate the STR (Short Term Rental) market.
Interesting watch.
At least we are living longer!
Always here to answer question ITT or send me a DM.
Also if there are any topics you would like addressed in an upcoming "Weekly Housing & Real Estate Market Thread" let me know.
Stay warm this week and "Let's Go Texas Baseball" - love this time of year!
Hook 'Em!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Mid 6's
15 Year Conventional - High 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
Texas Real Estate Statistics for December 2024 -
Prices up slightly with more homes on the market - is it time to panic or are we returning to a more "Pre-Covid" real estate market? It's too early to say for sure - time will tell.
In January 2025, home prices in Texas were up 1.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $335,600. On average, the number of homes sold was down 1.2% year over year and there were 18,710 homes sold in January this year, down 19,024 homes sold in January last year. The median days on the market was 72 days, up 11 year over year.
Top 10 Metros in Texas with the Fastest Growing Sales Price
- Granbury, TX 46.2%
- Magnolia, TX 33.4%
- Baytown, TX 32.0%
- Edinburg, TX 27.8%
- Cedar Park, TX 25.6%
- Pasadena, TX 19.7%
- Irving, TX 15.8%
- The Woodlands, TX 15.4%
- Sugar Land, TX 14.0%
- Mission, TX 13.0%
Top 10 Most Competitive Cities in Texas
- Euless, TX
- Willis, TX
- Greatwood, TX
- Haltom City, TX
- Dayton, TX
- Pearland, TX
- Lancaster, TX
- Richardson, TX
- Hurst, TX
- Lewisville, TX
In January 2025, 10.6% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 1.4 points year over year. There were only 30.4% of homes that had price drops, up from 26.0% of homes in January last year. There was a 96.9% sale-to-list price, down 0.0024 points year over year.
One surprising stat was to see Texas not in the Top 4 of states people are moving to as seen here - Nationwide, 27% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between Nov '24 - Jan '25. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
Buying vs Renting -
In close to 60% of the 341 county-level markets with enough data to analyze, owning is the more affordable choice, at least for those who can manage a 20% down payment. Significant differences in the affordability of owning versus renting exist among various regions of the country, with buying a residence most favorable in the Midwest and South, followed by the Northeast.
Though remember real estate is local and you should do your research to make the best financial decision for you. With real estate returning to historical norms of price appreciation - keep in mind that a rule of thumb is that it will take you about 3+ years to breakeven when you sell your home.
That's because you typically need about 3+ years of appreciation to recoup the costs to sell the home. I just had a conversation with one of our board veterans - he was looking to move in 1-3 years. When we broke down the numbers along with that he has a great rental rate it made more sense to rent based on the current numbers and their situation.
My point is that even if the numbers show it is less expensive to own versus rent, each person needs to look at their own situation including: how long they will be in their current city, how much they are paying for rent, does their employer cover relocation costs of selling your current home, appreciation rate of homes in your market.
Market Warning Signs -
As we mentioned above right now things are not in a panic mode, and it may be just a return to normal real estate markets without wild appreciation numbers from pandemic buying. But there are some "warning signs" that the housing market may be in a downturn. Here are a few items even in Texas that caught my eye.
Listings Are Soaring Even in Historically Buffered Areas -
With many government agencies seeing major cuts and reductions in force there has been a recent listing boom in Washington DC. This area has been buffered for years from real estate downturns that have effected other parts of the country because the government being it's largest employer. It is the second most expensive place to live behind Hawaii and the home prices have been high for a long time.
It is a pretty big shock for this area and has had a flood of posts across the internet. It's not there yet, but had we had the internet in the 80's I can only imagine this was the kind of images you would have seen in the Houston market when oil tanked from $42 BBL to $7 BBL.
New Listings Over $1,000,000 in DC
Coming Soon is the New "Buzz Word" in DC
Evidence is showing that the amount of listings indicate it should be a buyer's market, but for now interest rates are keeping many buyers out of the market. How long until home prices have significant drops?
Build to Rent -
Build to rent or where developers build entire rental communities continues to grow. As of 2023, build-to-rent properties made up an estimated 7.9% of single-family properties, but they’re currently on the rise. According to recent data, over 75,000 single-family built-for-rent properties began construction in 2023, which is about a 9% increase from 2022 and an all-time high.
Now when you see financing from major Wall Street Banks it may be a trend and segment that is here to stay. In my opinion it does provide a good alternative compared to apartments for families whose wager-earners may be transient in nature. On the other hand, they will require a strong management company to make sure they don't turn into a community of disrepair from lack of maintenance & upkeep.
Odds and Ends -
Austin looks to regulate the STR (Short Term Rental) market.
Interesting watch.
At least we are living longer!
Always here to answer question ITT or send me a DM.
Also if there are any topics you would like addressed in an upcoming "Weekly Housing & Real Estate Market Thread" let me know.
Stay warm this week and "Let's Go Texas Baseball" - love this time of year!
Hook 'Em!
MH
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