Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Quick Glance -
1. Today's Job Numbers Higher Than Expected
2. Treasury Yields Skyrocket
3. Mortgage Rates Say Good Bye To 30 Year In 5's and 15 Year in 4's
4. Fed Post Record Loss for 2023
5. Texas is VA Country
Today's Job Numbers -
The job numbers posted today were way above expectations. There was a hint of these numbers as Wednesday's ADP Report showed stronger than expected numbers. These numbers have already caused the 10 Year Treasury to rise significantly and mortgage rates to spike back up.
The issue is how much can we trust these numbers to hold as every jobs report for close to the last year has been revised downward two times. The headline numbers released today though are what drives the bond markets for both the 10 Year Treasury and Mortgages.
Treasury Yields Skyrocket -
Treasury yields went through the roof after the jobs report was released. They had already been ticking up yesterday as the 10 Year Yield broke through resistance at 3.80% and now has stomped across it's 50 Day Moving Average of 3.84%
What's causing the 10 Year to rise in addition to the jobs number? Well remember when the FED cut rates by .500% we alluded ITT that by cutting that much the fear in the markets was that it would spike inflation. Bond and mortgages are bonds, hate inflation becasue it erodes their value. That's why we told you that mortgage rates were likely to go UP not down when the FED cut that much - we were proven correct.
You can see the inflation here in this chart - the food index was up 3% alone in September - it also looks as though commodity prices are set to rise again.
Mortgage Rates Get Crushed by Jobs Report -
For about the last month and prior to the FED cutting their rate by half a point we were enjoying the lowest rates we have had in a year. The 30 Year Conventional was in the High 5's Jumbo was High 5's FHA was Mid 5's VA was low 5's and 15 Year was high 4's.
Well those rates are saying adios! ITT we told you counter to what most realtors were posting all over Facebook and the media was saying, that the FED cutting their short-term rate was going to cause mortgage rates to go UP and not down.
Perhaps the media and so many realtors should stay in their lane and leave mortgage advice up to, well leave it to mortgage experts that have decades of knowledge, follow in real-time the MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities Market), subscribe to the best interest-rate advisors like Barry Habib and actually listen to what we are telling you.
Today's rates have now shifted up with all of the above news - Conventional 30 Year Very Low 6's Jumbo Very Low 6's FHA Mid 5's VA Mid 5's and 15 Year Conventional Low to Mid 5's
The FED Posted a Record Loss in 2023 -
Yes believe it or not, the people with the money printer posted a record loss last year.
Texas is Not Only The GOAT - It Is the Market Leader for Our GOAT Warriors in VA Loans
We can never say thank you enough to our Veterans especially our OB Veterans. Love the fact that Texas is leading the nation in providing VA Loans to our veterans. It is the ONLY government entitlement that is actually earned - the least we can do to say thank you!!!
There were north of 5,000 VA purchase closings in 6 markets based on county from October of 2022 through June of 2024.
1. Bexar, TX = 11,405
2. Maricopa, AZ = 7,497
3. El Paso, CO = 7,135
4. Clark, NV = 6,102
5. San Diego, CA = 5,350
6. Bell, TX = 5,241
Conclusion -
Much like a "Bye-Week", don't get down with this news. Sit back, take a deep breath, and look at the big picture.
For Texas, we're at or near the top of the rankings, we've got two weeks to get everyone healthy including our QB, and can refocus on the meat of our schedule.
Likewise in the mortgage market. Yes we had a spike in rates though we are still 2 full points lower in interest-rate that where we were a year ago.
Always available ITT or DM to answer questions.
It's a Bye-Week and OU still sucks!
Have an amazing weekend!
Hook 'Em!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Quick Glance -
1. Today's Job Numbers Higher Than Expected
2. Treasury Yields Skyrocket
3. Mortgage Rates Say Good Bye To 30 Year In 5's and 15 Year in 4's
4. Fed Post Record Loss for 2023
5. Texas is VA Country
Today's Job Numbers -
The job numbers posted today were way above expectations. There was a hint of these numbers as Wednesday's ADP Report showed stronger than expected numbers. These numbers have already caused the 10 Year Treasury to rise significantly and mortgage rates to spike back up.
The issue is how much can we trust these numbers to hold as every jobs report for close to the last year has been revised downward two times. The headline numbers released today though are what drives the bond markets for both the 10 Year Treasury and Mortgages.
Treasury Yields Skyrocket -
Treasury yields went through the roof after the jobs report was released. They had already been ticking up yesterday as the 10 Year Yield broke through resistance at 3.80% and now has stomped across it's 50 Day Moving Average of 3.84%
What's causing the 10 Year to rise in addition to the jobs number? Well remember when the FED cut rates by .500% we alluded ITT that by cutting that much the fear in the markets was that it would spike inflation. Bond and mortgages are bonds, hate inflation becasue it erodes their value. That's why we told you that mortgage rates were likely to go UP not down when the FED cut that much - we were proven correct.
You can see the inflation here in this chart - the food index was up 3% alone in September - it also looks as though commodity prices are set to rise again.
Mortgage Rates Get Crushed by Jobs Report -
For about the last month and prior to the FED cutting their rate by half a point we were enjoying the lowest rates we have had in a year. The 30 Year Conventional was in the High 5's Jumbo was High 5's FHA was Mid 5's VA was low 5's and 15 Year was high 4's.
Well those rates are saying adios! ITT we told you counter to what most realtors were posting all over Facebook and the media was saying, that the FED cutting their short-term rate was going to cause mortgage rates to go UP and not down.
Perhaps the media and so many realtors should stay in their lane and leave mortgage advice up to, well leave it to mortgage experts that have decades of knowledge, follow in real-time the MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities Market), subscribe to the best interest-rate advisors like Barry Habib and actually listen to what we are telling you.
Today's rates have now shifted up with all of the above news - Conventional 30 Year Very Low 6's Jumbo Very Low 6's FHA Mid 5's VA Mid 5's and 15 Year Conventional Low to Mid 5's
The FED Posted a Record Loss in 2023 -
Yes believe it or not, the people with the money printer posted a record loss last year.
Texas is Not Only The GOAT - It Is the Market Leader for Our GOAT Warriors in VA Loans
We can never say thank you enough to our Veterans especially our OB Veterans. Love the fact that Texas is leading the nation in providing VA Loans to our veterans. It is the ONLY government entitlement that is actually earned - the least we can do to say thank you!!!
There were north of 5,000 VA purchase closings in 6 markets based on county from October of 2022 through June of 2024.
1. Bexar, TX = 11,405
2. Maricopa, AZ = 7,497
3. El Paso, CO = 7,135
4. Clark, NV = 6,102
5. San Diego, CA = 5,350
6. Bell, TX = 5,241
Conclusion -
Much like a "Bye-Week", don't get down with this news. Sit back, take a deep breath, and look at the big picture.
For Texas, we're at or near the top of the rankings, we've got two weeks to get everyone healthy including our QB, and can refocus on the meat of our schedule.
Likewise in the mortgage market. Yes we had a spike in rates though we are still 2 full points lower in interest-rate that where we were a year ago.
Always available ITT or DM to answer questions.
It's a Bye-Week and OU still sucks!
Have an amazing weekend!
Hook 'Em!
MH
Last edited:
