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Weekly Housing & Real Estate Market Thread - Those Lying Numbers, Texas Housing Trends for October, Is Now a Good Time to Rent In Austin?

mortgagehorn

Your Favorite Loan Officer
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Jan 5, 2004
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Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.

The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.

Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.

As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".


Our Current Rates -


30 Year Conventional - Upper-Mid 6's
15 Year Conventional - High 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's


The Government Lies But This is Ridiculous -

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” — has been attributed to Mark Twain, who himself attributed it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, who might never have said it in the first place. Regardless of the origin of the phrase, it is one that I hold near and dear.

Yes the government lies, but when they lie about the job statistics it effects mortgage rates - why? Because the Fed has two mandates - maximum employment and price stability. They then use the tools at their disposal like increasing or decreasing short-term rates based on the employment and inflation numbers.

Thus, it's a big problem and makes it really difficult for the Fed to do its job properly. I'm not going to get into the politics of why the Bureau of Labor Statistics lied about how many jobs were being created - just know this deceit helped push mortgage rates higher than they should be if the data provided to the Fed was accurate.

As you can see from the highlighted parts below it wasn't just a tiny or small error, the jobs numbers have been overstated by twice as much as the actual/real numbers.


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Why would you hamstring your own Fed? Many decisions not only from the Fed, but private businesses make major decisions on hiring/layoffs/wage increases/budgets from the BLS numbers. Whoever thought this idea of falsifying numbers to this magnitude should be fired.

Texas Housing Stats for October -

In October 2024, home prices in Texas were up 1.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $345,500. On average, the number of homes sold was up 9.5% year over year and there were 26,258 homes sold in October this year, up 24,010 homes sold in October last year. The median days on the market was 56 days, up 11 year over year.

Top 10 Metros in Texas with the Fastest Growing Sales Price

  1. Sienna, TX 33.1%
  2. Texarkana, TX 32.0%
  3. Sienna Plantation, TX 30.5%
  4. Northlake, TX 27.7%
  5. Edinburg, TX 17.3%
  6. Granbury, TX 15.0%
  7. Colleyville, TX 14.6%
  8. Sugar Land, TX1 3.7%
  9. Fate, TX1 3.2%
  10. Azle, TX 12.7%
In October 2024, there were 154,215 homes for sale in Texas, up 16.2% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 36,186 and up 6.8% year over year. The average months of supply is 4 months, up 0 year over year.

Top 10 Most Competitive Cities in Texas

  1. The Woodlands, TX
  2. Pearland, TX
  3. Haltom City, TX
  4. Grapevine, TX
  5. Lewisville, TX
  6. Euless, TX
  7. Bedford, TX
  8. Carrollton, TX
  9. Mission Bend, TX
  10. Watauga, TX
In October 2024, 11.8% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 2.8 points year over year. There were only 34.0% of homes that had price drops, up from 33.0% of homes in October last year. There was a 97.1% sale-to-list price, down 0.16 points year over year.

Odd & Ends -

May be a Good Time to Rent in Austin -


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Townhomes Increasing in Popularity



Housing Overall is Currently Lackluster at Best



Always happy to answer questions in ITT or send me a DM.

Beat the Hell Out of KY!

Hook 'Em!
MH
 
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