I’m looking for some hot takes on this fine Monday afternoon. Drop your hot takes below (sports related or not)
My current hottest take is that analytics nerds have been given too much power in the sport of football, and potentially other sports as well. We hear all about the odds in certain situations. They have theories for why it’s smart to go for two if you score a TD in the 4th after being down by 14 points, but too often they don’t take momentum and human elements into play. Even worse, a lot of times you’ll see these analytics nerds argue that momentum does not even exist in football or sports in general. It’s as if they think the game is played by robots.
I understand the odds are high that I might get a first down on 4th and 3 on my opponents 20 yard line if I’m up by 8 points, but I also know that a FG could be the difference between being up by one score or two. I also understand the “odds” say that I’ll get a 2 point conversion 50% of the time, so I should “technically” go for two if I’m down by 14 in the 4th and score a TD, because theoretically if I don’t get it the first time I’m almost guaranteed to get it the next time… But that’s not how football and momentum works! If I don’t get the two point conversion I’m now down by 8 points, and my guys know that not only do they need to score again, they need to score AND get a two point conversion in order to send it to OT. I’d rather go for two on the 2nd potential TD so that we all know what’s at stake, or we can kick the extra point to go to OT.
TL;DR Football is not played in a vacuum. I believe analytics has a place in the sport, but has become too heavily weighted when making decisions that have human elements effecting them.
Let’s see your hot takes!!
My current hottest take is that analytics nerds have been given too much power in the sport of football, and potentially other sports as well. We hear all about the odds in certain situations. They have theories for why it’s smart to go for two if you score a TD in the 4th after being down by 14 points, but too often they don’t take momentum and human elements into play. Even worse, a lot of times you’ll see these analytics nerds argue that momentum does not even exist in football or sports in general. It’s as if they think the game is played by robots.
I understand the odds are high that I might get a first down on 4th and 3 on my opponents 20 yard line if I’m up by 8 points, but I also know that a FG could be the difference between being up by one score or two. I also understand the “odds” say that I’ll get a 2 point conversion 50% of the time, so I should “technically” go for two if I’m down by 14 in the 4th and score a TD, because theoretically if I don’t get it the first time I’m almost guaranteed to get it the next time… But that’s not how football and momentum works! If I don’t get the two point conversion I’m now down by 8 points, and my guys know that not only do they need to score again, they need to score AND get a two point conversion in order to send it to OT. I’d rather go for two on the 2nd potential TD so that we all know what’s at stake, or we can kick the extra point to go to OT.
TL;DR Football is not played in a vacuum. I believe analytics has a place in the sport, but has become too heavily weighted when making decisions that have human elements effecting them.
Let’s see your hot takes!!
