Seth Fowler graduated from Texas in 1998. Since 2004, he has been helping home buyers and sellers in the DFW Metroplex. Whether new construction, existing homes, investment property, or land, he is your Real Estate Sherpa - guiding you through the process, making it an enjoyable experience. Based in Tarrant County, however, he will help connect you with a quality Realtor anywhere in Texas, the United States, or in the world. When looking to purchase or sell real estate in this new market, call Seth at 817.980.6636.
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Tonight, 12-1, sixth-ranked Texas takes on 12-1 Kansas State in UT's second conference matchup of the year and their first at the Moody Center. Texas won its conference opener on the road against Oklahoma on Saturday, 70-69, in one of its closest games of the year. Kansas State is another talented team with only one loss on the season, that being to Butler on the road in late November.
The Longhorns have owned this series as of late, winning five of the last six and six of the last eight. The Longhorns are also 20-6 in conference hope openers since joining the Big 12. These trends don't mean anything in the face of this game, however.
Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson leads the way in scoring for the Wildcats, his first season back after collapsing on court versus Florida State in 2020. He has a remarkable journey of fortitude, but Johnson isn't just a nice story – he's an absolute baller who can score at will, shooting over 50% for the season and 42.5% from three en route to averaging 17.7 points per. Not only this, but KSU boasts a second prolific scorer in Markquis Nowell, who is putting up 14.4 points per himself. NaeQuan Tomlin is also scoring 11.6 per contest.
Here is Kansas State's starting lineup.
After losing star guard Nijel Pack to Miami in the offseason, it was up to Nowell to fill his shoes, which he has done admirably. He's second in the nation in assists per game with a blistering 8.5, and boasts incredible court vision with the ability to find guys on drive-and-kick sets. He's a true floor general who can both find the open man as well as score it himself. He is one of the best guards Texas will see this year, a legitimate dual threat on the offensive end, and a guy who has had double-digit assists in three of his last five games.
Despite how much I've talked about their offense so far, Kansas State is, in general, more of a defensive-minded team. The culture has changed under the lead of new head coach Jerome Tang, who was an assistant and associate head coach at Baylor for nearly 20 years before taking his first D1 head coaching gig. As a team, they give up just 62 points per game, ranking them 42nd in the nation in that category. So basically, they're a classic Big 12 team that grinds you out and contests shots with ferocity.
The Wildcats are ranked 60th in the nation in steals at 8.3 per game, and highly ranked in opponents' turnovers at 17.2. Despite the fact they're not ranked, Kansas State will be a really tough matchup for Texas, who will have to bring their A-game to pull this out. The Big 12 is a murderer's row of talented squads, and KSU is no exception to the rule.
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What to watch for.
Turnover margin.
As I referenced earlier in this column, Kansas State is an elite team in turnovers forced, with 8.3 of those being live-ball turnovers that can get them easy run-outs in transition. Texas has done a really good job taking care of the ball so far this year, throwing it away less than 12 times per game while forcing 17.8 themselves. This game is going to come down to who can take better care of the ball, because so many of the stats are close between the two teams. Putting pressure on Markquis Nowell and not allowing him to dominate in the passing game will be key, but also, Texas cannot get sloppy in transition. Their increased pace versus last season cannot cause them to play recklessly on the offensive end.
Assisted scoring.
Both Texas and Kansas State average a high number of assisted baskets per game. The Wildcats average 18.5 assists, good for ninth in the country, and Texas isn't far behind them at 18.3, good for 11th. The primary driver of offense for KSU is obviously Marqkuis Nowell and his absurdly high number of assists per game, while Texas has several players who contribute to distribution, including Marcus Carr (4.1), Timmy Allen (4.2), Tyrese Hunter (3.1), and SirJabari Rice (2.6). Having a front-court player like Timmy Allen who can initiate offense from his spot is so important if the guards struggle to get something going. It allows for backdoor cuts by guys like Dillon Mitchell, Dylan Disu, and Christian Bishop. The fact Allen is a threat at the elbow because of his elite mid-range game makes it that much more difficult to play defense when he's on the floor, especially if he's in a rhythm and hitting shots consistently.
Rebounding discrepancy.
Neither team is particularly elite on the glass: Texas ranks 87th in the nation at 37.8 total rebounds per game, and Kansas State ranks 191st with 35.5. For Texas, this can be partially blamed on size issues, as they lack a big seven-footer in the middle to get automatic boards after misses. Timmy Allen and Dillon Mitchell are the best rebounders on the team, averaging 6.1 and five, respectively. Cunningham, Disu, and Mitchell all average over three as well. It's really cleaning the glass by committee as opposed to one dominant, heliocentric force. For Kansas State, Keyontae Johnson, NaeQuan Tomlin, and David N'Guessan lead the way, all averaging over five per game, while Johnson averages a shade under seven per. Tomlin and N'Guessan are both over 6'9, but Johnson is relentless on the boards, leading the team in this category at just 6'5. Second-chance points are going to be at a premium in this defensive game; don't be surprised if the team that wins the rebounding margin takes home the victory.
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Overall Thoughts
On paper, this is a pretty even matchup between two teams with just a single loss each on the season. Forget that there is no number next to Kansas State's name: they are a legitimate team with a lot of talent in the starting five. The difference I believe will be the second unit versus Texas' second unit. The Longhorns have one of the deepest benches in the country; not many teams have Arterio Morris, SirJabari Rice, Christian Bishop, and Brock Cunningham coming off the pine. These are guys that could start at many Power-6 programs, and they come in as subs, without a complaint, to compete hard for their school. A deep roster means so much in March and April, and getting these guys accustomed to difficult competition game in and game out will prepare them for the NCAA Tournament better than any other league could.
Prediction:
• Kansas State +8.5
I think this is a pretty even matchup that will be close at the end, which is not so much an indictment on Texas as it is praise for Kansas State. Predicted to finish at the bottom of the conference, they boast one of the best records in the Big 12. They're scrappy and tough and won't be put away easily. I think Texas wins, but not by nine points.
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Tonight, 12-1, sixth-ranked Texas takes on 12-1 Kansas State in UT's second conference matchup of the year and their first at the Moody Center. Texas won its conference opener on the road against Oklahoma on Saturday, 70-69, in one of its closest games of the year. Kansas State is another talented team with only one loss on the season, that being to Butler on the road in late November.
The Longhorns have owned this series as of late, winning five of the last six and six of the last eight. The Longhorns are also 20-6 in conference hope openers since joining the Big 12. These trends don't mean anything in the face of this game, however.
Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson leads the way in scoring for the Wildcats, his first season back after collapsing on court versus Florida State in 2020. He has a remarkable journey of fortitude, but Johnson isn't just a nice story – he's an absolute baller who can score at will, shooting over 50% for the season and 42.5% from three en route to averaging 17.7 points per. Not only this, but KSU boasts a second prolific scorer in Markquis Nowell, who is putting up 14.4 points per himself. NaeQuan Tomlin is also scoring 11.6 per contest.
Here is Kansas State's starting lineup.
After losing star guard Nijel Pack to Miami in the offseason, it was up to Nowell to fill his shoes, which he has done admirably. He's second in the nation in assists per game with a blistering 8.5, and boasts incredible court vision with the ability to find guys on drive-and-kick sets. He's a true floor general who can both find the open man as well as score it himself. He is one of the best guards Texas will see this year, a legitimate dual threat on the offensive end, and a guy who has had double-digit assists in three of his last five games.
Despite how much I've talked about their offense so far, Kansas State is, in general, more of a defensive-minded team. The culture has changed under the lead of new head coach Jerome Tang, who was an assistant and associate head coach at Baylor for nearly 20 years before taking his first D1 head coaching gig. As a team, they give up just 62 points per game, ranking them 42nd in the nation in that category. So basically, they're a classic Big 12 team that grinds you out and contests shots with ferocity.
The Wildcats are ranked 60th in the nation in steals at 8.3 per game, and highly ranked in opponents' turnovers at 17.2. Despite the fact they're not ranked, Kansas State will be a really tough matchup for Texas, who will have to bring their A-game to pull this out. The Big 12 is a murderer's row of talented squads, and KSU is no exception to the rule.
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What to watch for.
Turnover margin.
As I referenced earlier in this column, Kansas State is an elite team in turnovers forced, with 8.3 of those being live-ball turnovers that can get them easy run-outs in transition. Texas has done a really good job taking care of the ball so far this year, throwing it away less than 12 times per game while forcing 17.8 themselves. This game is going to come down to who can take better care of the ball, because so many of the stats are close between the two teams. Putting pressure on Markquis Nowell and not allowing him to dominate in the passing game will be key, but also, Texas cannot get sloppy in transition. Their increased pace versus last season cannot cause them to play recklessly on the offensive end.
Assisted scoring.
Both Texas and Kansas State average a high number of assisted baskets per game. The Wildcats average 18.5 assists, good for ninth in the country, and Texas isn't far behind them at 18.3, good for 11th. The primary driver of offense for KSU is obviously Marqkuis Nowell and his absurdly high number of assists per game, while Texas has several players who contribute to distribution, including Marcus Carr (4.1), Timmy Allen (4.2), Tyrese Hunter (3.1), and SirJabari Rice (2.6). Having a front-court player like Timmy Allen who can initiate offense from his spot is so important if the guards struggle to get something going. It allows for backdoor cuts by guys like Dillon Mitchell, Dylan Disu, and Christian Bishop. The fact Allen is a threat at the elbow because of his elite mid-range game makes it that much more difficult to play defense when he's on the floor, especially if he's in a rhythm and hitting shots consistently.
Rebounding discrepancy.
Neither team is particularly elite on the glass: Texas ranks 87th in the nation at 37.8 total rebounds per game, and Kansas State ranks 191st with 35.5. For Texas, this can be partially blamed on size issues, as they lack a big seven-footer in the middle to get automatic boards after misses. Timmy Allen and Dillon Mitchell are the best rebounders on the team, averaging 6.1 and five, respectively. Cunningham, Disu, and Mitchell all average over three as well. It's really cleaning the glass by committee as opposed to one dominant, heliocentric force. For Kansas State, Keyontae Johnson, NaeQuan Tomlin, and David N'Guessan lead the way, all averaging over five per game, while Johnson averages a shade under seven per. Tomlin and N'Guessan are both over 6'9, but Johnson is relentless on the boards, leading the team in this category at just 6'5. Second-chance points are going to be at a premium in this defensive game; don't be surprised if the team that wins the rebounding margin takes home the victory.
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Overall Thoughts
On paper, this is a pretty even matchup between two teams with just a single loss each on the season. Forget that there is no number next to Kansas State's name: they are a legitimate team with a lot of talent in the starting five. The difference I believe will be the second unit versus Texas' second unit. The Longhorns have one of the deepest benches in the country; not many teams have Arterio Morris, SirJabari Rice, Christian Bishop, and Brock Cunningham coming off the pine. These are guys that could start at many Power-6 programs, and they come in as subs, without a complaint, to compete hard for their school. A deep roster means so much in March and April, and getting these guys accustomed to difficult competition game in and game out will prepare them for the NCAA Tournament better than any other league could.
Prediction:
• Kansas State +8.5
I think this is a pretty even matchup that will be close at the end, which is not so much an indictment on Texas as it is praise for Kansas State. Predicted to finish at the bottom of the conference, they boast one of the best records in the Big 12. They're scrappy and tough and won't be put away easily. I think Texas wins, but not by nine points.
