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*****
Believe it or not, fantasy football drafts are already taking place.
And you might ask why I'm writing about fantasy football in the middle of May here on Orangebloods, and it's a fair question. My answers to that would be, 1) we actually have a lot of fantasy football and NFL sickos on this board; and 2) your very own (and now, bittersweetly) Atlanta's own, Bijan Robinson is already being taken, on average, within the FIRST 7 PICKS of 12-team leagues for the 2023 season.
He's being taken as the second RB off the board in the entire NFL, and his closest competition at the all-important running back position as far as average draft position (ADP) isn't even close.
And I'm not talking about dynasty leagues where you draft players as rookies and get to keep them forever. Oh Lord no, he's the consensus, unanimous and unquestioned 1.01, first-overall pick in all but the most cockamamie .01% of rookie drafts. Even in dynasty leagues where you can start two quarterbacks each week, elevating signal-callers to godlike fantasy status, the masses still want Bijan the most. The fever has officially set in.
If you’re a Longhorns fan who watched Bijan Robinson's career at Texas and also observed him as a person, you likely feel a little bit like I do about seeing him move on to all of this early fanfare as an Atlanta Falcon. You're thrilled that he was a Top 10 pick in the NFL draft. You're thrilled that his dreams are coming true. You know, deep down, that it can't happen to a better PERSON. Not just the player, but the PERSON. But you're a little heartsick that he is now set to be a fixture in the Atlanta community instead of the Austin one.
Here's how the first round is going off in early 2023 leagues:
Justin Jefferson, WR Vikings
Ja'Marr Chase, WR Bengals
Christian McCaffrey, RB 49ers
Tyreek Hill, WR Dolphins
Cooper Kupp, WR Rams
Travis Kelce, TE Chiefs
Bijan Robinson, RB Falcons
Stefon Diggs, WR Bills
A.J. Brown, WR Eagles
Davante Adams, WR Raiders
Austin Ekeler, RB Chargers
Ceedee Lamb, WR Cowboys
Everyone loves drafting their favorite college players on their fantasy team, but something like this doesn't happen all too often, having to click the "draft" button on a rookie player in the first half of the first round of your fantasy draft before the guy has even taken an NFL snap. The opportunity in Atlanta from a volume standpoint is probably a good one for Bijan on the whole, but it's not exactly perfect.
On the PROS side of the ledger, you have the following:
- He was taken with the 8th pick overall in the actual NFL draft, and, even more to the point, at a position that NFL teams have devalued. If an NFL team takes a running back in the Top 10 picks of the NFL draft in the year 2023 (as their analytics department screams into their collective pillows and sobs) it means that the team 1) absolutely loves the player and 2) has plans for the player schematically beyond just running the ball between the tackles. Committing that kind of draft capital to a running back knowing what we know about the position and its replaceability in recent years, the plan is to use that player as a true offensive weapon. It just has to be.
- The Falcons run the dickens out of the football. Last year, they were second in the league in run/pass ratio behind only the Chicago Bears who basically ran a six-back offense with QB Justin Fields, a rushing phenom but a far-from-developed NFL passer. Falcons HC Arthur Smith was promoted to his current head coaching job in Atlanta by way of his offensive coordinator tenure with the Tennessee Titans, where establishing the run with King Derrick Henry was a clear and evident part of his success and play-calling DNA.
- It's been an undercover topic that only really gets talked about on places like the team website, but the biggest surprise in Atlanta last year was that the offensive line turned the corner to becoming not only good, but borderline elite. Run-blocking lanes will be open.
- Atlanta's run-heavy approach is unlikely to change. The Falcons did very little in free agency and the draft to account for the fact that their QB position is very much in flux after drafting Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder last year, and deciding to roll with him after putting up pretty mixed results as the Falcons' starter for the final four games of the 2022 regular season. They brought in career backup Taylor Heinecke, but that's it. The plan, for now, is to move forward with Ridder to get a true look at what they have in him. As a QB like Ridder is given an opportunity to win a long-term starting job in the NFL, we all know that the running game in general, and in specific, high-percentage targets underneath to pass-catching RBs can be a young quarterback's best friend.
- Oh, and it goes without saying that Bijan Robinson is just REALLY dang good at football.
- The Falcons offense, outside of two relatively underperforming first-round picks thus far (WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts) has some of the most miserable offensive skill talent in the league (outside of one guy who we'll talk about next). Outside of London, their next top two receivers are ... Mack Hollins who they, for some reason, went after in free agency (likely for his well-known ability as a run-blocker) and pipsqueak Scotty Miller, a former deep-bench backup with the Bucs. The Falcons need offensive firepower badly.
On the CONS side of the ledger, you have the following:
- Bijan doesn't step into his own backfield. If you don't follow the NFL much, say hello to last year's rookie RB pick for the Falcons, Tyler Allgeier:
Now, Allgeier is not Bijan Robinson, no doubt, but to say he was a slouch as a rookie would be disingenuous. The 5-11, 224-pound battering ram seemed to get faster and better through the season, and he ended it with over 1,000 rushing yards, the most of any rookie runner in Falcons team history. Say what you will about the talent of Allgeier versus the talent of Robinson, but that guy is not going to go completely away -- especially with a coach like Arthur Smith who's going to want to pound the ball relentlessly to take the air out of it in what should be a very downtrodden and rebuilding NFC South division.
- Maybe Allgeier doesn't need to be completely gone for Bijan to pay off his sky-high ADP in fantasy, but there are other touch-volume concerns: 1) Jack-of-all-trades Cordarrelle Patterson is still on the roster following his rather bizarre 2021 breakout and will still command at least some volume in the run game. 2) Desmond Ridder last season averaged four rushing attempts per game and that doesn't look to be something the Falcons are looking to change. So, while, yes, the Falcons did average a league-high-tying 33 rushing attempts per game last season ... if we project that same number into 2023 we have to divy up 4 or 5 to Ridder, then 4 or 5 to Patterson, and all of the sudden we're left with just over 20 rush attempts to split between Robinson and Allgeier. Even if Bijan mostly dominates that volume (a tall task as a rookie) we aren't really looking at a complete bellcow-type opportunity, at least right off the bat.
- What we said about QB Desmond Ridder before -- about him being unseasoned and that presumably leading the team to run more or lean on running backs in the pass game as extensions of the run -- also has a downside effect: if he's not very good, the team isn't going to be in scoring position as often as we like. And we all know TDs rule the roost at the RB position in fantasy.
So, as you envision your fantasy football draft among friends here in just a few months, drinking beers and eating wings or pizza -- smack-talking about what did or didn't happen last year with your squads -- remember: you have some homework to do before you're on the clock in that first round. More than just some homework, it might even be some soul-searching.
You have a big decision to make about Bijan Robinson.
