The 2022 Texas Longhorns will play for a Big 12 Championship in 2022 if the following six things happen ...
a. The quarterback play has to rank in the top 3-4 teams in the conference.
I'm sure there will be others that object to this opinion, but I don't think either of the two players competing for the starting quarterback job is ready to lead Texas to a 9-3 or better record. The good news is that both players, especially Quinn Ewers, have time to take steps before it really matters. The bad news is that neither player is as close to the level of play that Casey Thompson reached at his healthy zenith in 2021. Ultimately, so much about this team's record in 2022 is going to come down to how ready Ewers can be in his first season of play. To my naked eyes, he still looks like a guy that is going to have a lot of mistakes in his play against good teams. One of his trademarks in the spring was making "wow" plays of multiple varieties. At some point this season, the game needs to slow down for him, so that the turnovers can slow down.
b. Two freshmen offensive linemen have to play at freshman all-America levels.
Junior Angilau is a solid football player at left guard and that's about all we really can say about the quality of the returning Texas offensive linemen at this stage of the off-season. Jake Majors is expected to start at center, but his 75.31 average grade in @Alex Dunlap's Deep Dig grades means that he performed at an adequate level, about on the level of Taylor Doyle's sophomore season. The other returning players along the offensive line that played more than 108 snaps last season (Christian Jones and Andrej Karic) didn't quite meet adequate levels. Other than the emergence of Hayden Conner, this is an offensive line that was incredibly short on depth in the spring and didn't see many individuals take big leaps forward. This means that multiple true freshmen from the nation's best offensive line class are going to need to come in and play at levels similar to what Connor Williams showed as a true freshman. In the last seven seasons, only Williams has played as a true freshman in this program and performed at a level that made him arguably the best player on the offensive line, which is what this team dearly needs. If that doesn't happen, it's hard to see where the quality of this offensive line, combined with the inexperience at quarterback, will give this offense a chance to perform at a level needed.
c. Find a pass rush.
Ochaun Mathis is likely on the way, which will help, but this is still a defense that seems to lack sure-fire pressure options. If the former TCU defender can turn into a double-digit sack weapon, that would go a long way to helping solve some of this crisis, but it's not a sure thing after he failed to get anywhere near that number in 2021. Ovie Oghoufo has to be better. Same for DeMarvion Overshown. Same for all of the interior players. The Big 12 champion Baylor Bears had 44 sacks last season, while the Longhorns had 22. I'll set the bar at 33 for this defense. That won't make it anywhere near elite at rushing the passer, but it's a respectable enough level of production that the defense will give its secondary a fighting chance in coverage.
d. Find some playmakers on defense.
Overshown and Oghoufo are the top two returning sack men with two each. Luke Brockermeyer is the returning interception leader with two and if we're talking about players projected to start, D'Shawn Jamison is the leading returner with one. No player on the roster that returns forced more than a single fumble. Alfred Collins leads all returning players in quarterback hits with four. None of this is good enough at a program like Texas. It has to change or nothing else I've written about so far in this column is going to matter at all.
e. Be in the top half of Big 12 in the kicking games on special teams.
Did you know that the Longhorns ranked in the top half of the conference in kickoffs, field goals and punting in 2021? Heck, the Longhorns were in the top three in field goals (86.7%) and net punting (43.6). Come hell or high water, a team that lost almost every 50-50 game it played last season can't take a serious step back in any of those areas of special teams this season or it makes improving the record in 50-50 games even more difficult. That puts a lot of pressure on redshirt freshman Isaac Pearson and redshirt freshman Bert Auburn, both of whom are about as inexperienced as it gets.
f. Coach better.
I'm not going to get super into specifics, but the thought going into last season was that the Longhorns would improve over the course of the season and peak at the end of the year, thus making it a team that no other team in the Big 12 would want to play. Instead, the opposite occurred. We've talked about it before, but there's a lot of room for improvement with the coaches and it's going to be needed if Sarkisian's team is going to better the best regular-season record (8-4) Sarkisian has recorded in his seven seasons as a head coach.
If the Longhorns can do all of this, they’ll have the firepower in the skill positions to put the Big 12 on serious notice.
No. 2 - Spring Football Winners ...
After 15 practices, the Texas football team will go back into the lab for the next three-plus months before coming back together in August for the final preparations going into the 2022 season.
As I've constantly said throughout the spring, it's important to remember that we're not even 50-percent deep into the overall number of practices that the Texas coaches will have with this team before the start of the first game.
That being said, let's look at the biggest positives and the players that probably helped themselves the most in the last month.
1. Health
One of the things that threatens to hold this team back in 2022 is a lack of depth in key areas, but nothing that really happened in the last month should threaten to set this team back at all when the fall rolls around. There were no torn ACLs. Or pectorals. Or hamstrings. Not a single projected starter was mangled. Other than the high ankle sprain suffered by Andrej Karic, it was about as clean of a last five weeks from a health standpoint as you could ask as a head football coach. This is no small thing.
2. Quinn Ewers
The traditional line with a battle between a freshman and older player is that if the two are even, then the freshman "is leaving"' (the other in the dust). Well, the quarterback position feels pretty even going into the summer and that feels like a rather ominous detail heading into the rest of the off-season. As long as he keeps taking steps forward in his progression, he's likely to get the call when it's go-time.
3. Isaiah Neyor
During the middle of the Longhorn Network coverage, Steve Sarkisian mentioned that he wanted to give both quarterbacks a chance to achieve some success inside of the set-up of the scrimmage. On a night when Xavier Worthy was on a pitch count, I thought it was telling that Neyor was designed to be a bit of a go-to-guy for both quarterbacks with the starting line-up. Flashing the explosiveness on several occasions that explains his numbers for Wyoming, he brings a game-changing set of skills that is simply a notch above Marcus Washington, who has battled his rear end off to make the battle for a starting spot opposite Worthy a real battle. However, a healthy Neyor makes the offense more dangerous, so as long as he's healthy, it's hard to see him outside of the primary group of receivers that play the most.
4. Ja'Tavion Sanders
I'll admit to being a little worried about Sanders after such a modest freshman campaign because patience is often available in such short amounts in this age of the Portal, but Sanders emerged from the spring as the "no-doubt-about-it" starter at the tight end position, with all due respect to Gunnar Helm, who is a very talented young tight end in his own right. I'm going to be really surprised if Sanders doesn't emerge as a go-to-guy in the red zone this year.
5. Hayden Conner
A case can be made that no player in the program helped himself as much this spring than Conner, who came into the spring as a player many suspected might be on the verge of being passed by when the incoming freshmen class arrives, yet walks away from April as possibly the best offensive lineman currently on campus. When Karic suffered the ankle injury, it was Conner who moved to left tackle ... and you know what ... he more than held his own at the most difficult position to handle on the entire line. I'm not sure if he's the best lineman in the program or if he'll be the best in September, but it's pretty impossible at this point to project a "best five" where he's not included.
6. Ovie Oghoufo
He's not the flashiest talent on the defense. I'm not really sure where his best position is. But, the consensus coming out of the spring is that he's improved since 2021 and he's grown into a consensus top-five player on the defense.
7. Jaylan Ford
The junior from Frisco had a very solid camp and was a very big winner when UCLA transfer Caleb Johnson chose Miami over the Longhorns. He's going to need to survive the coaches continuing to look for linebacker help in the Portal, but he's currently the definite No. 1 inside linebacker next to DeMarvion Overshown coming out of camp.
8. Ryan Watts
It's kind of amazing that Watts wasn't even in the program five months ago and yet coming out of the spring game, his position in the starting line-up is a certainty. Hell, he was in the starting line-up on the first day of practice. The power of the portal when used properly is a program-lifter.
9. Anthony Cook
Consider it no small thing that his move from nickel to safety has helped improve a position that desperately needed a boost after last season's subpar play. Nine months ago, there were many who scoffed when Jordan Whittington mentioned Cook as the player that was catching his eye early in August of 2021. Now he's probably the most important player in the Texas secondary.
10. Issac Pearson
None of us can probably project where the redshirt freshman Aussie punter will finish among Big 12 punters this season, but it seems clear that he's going to be the guy that replaces Cameron Dicker in one of the two jobs that Dicker vacated when he decided to enter the NFL Draft. Consistency remains an area of concern, but the job feels won. I'm not sure I quite feel the same about the place-kicking job.
No. 3 - Spring Football Non-Winners ...
I take no joy in writing the section that discusses a few players on the roster that didn't quite grab Bevo by the horns, but all of these players/situations deserve mentioning.
1. Hudson Card
He's the more consistent of the two Texas quarterbacks and he's turning the ball over less than Quinn Ewers, but he's not pushing the ball down the field as much as Ewers and he hasn't used his advantages in such a way that he leaves the spring with a true lead over Ewers. It's also fair to wonder about whether he's truly taking the step forward that Sarkisian is looking for from him when it comes to performing calmly in the face of pressure.
2. Every receiver in the program this spring not named Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, Isaiah Neyor and Marcus Washington.
Sarkisian is not a coach that rotates his receivers by the half-dozen like Tom Herman did based on his rotation patterns in year one. The top four receivers are the top four receivers, and Sarkisian didn't use a valuable scholarship on Agiye Hall in the Portal this month just to sit him on the bench. Add in the arrival of Brenen Thompson this summer and it's hard to see a pathway for much playing time for any of the receivers on the roster in 2022, despite the fact that a few players have displayed flashes.
3. Jahleel Billingsly
It's not that Billingsly did anything wrong this season, but he came to Austin for more playing time and there are two players in Sanders and Helm who are currently ahead of him on the depth chart at tight end. On top of that, he's probably now second in the pecking order of former Alabama players that the coaches will want to get involved in the passing game. He has a lot of work to do in the next few months to improve his positioning.
4. Andrej Karic
The move of Christian Jones to right tackle opened the door for Karic to put a real marker down at left tackle before the arrival of Kelvin Banks and D.J. Campbell this summer. The ankle sprain he suffered at the midway point in camp meant that he never really had a chance to put a flag up at the position. There will be a lot of pressure on Karic when the team hits the field in August because there will be an inch to put one of the freshmen in that spot and he didn't do enough in the spring to lessen that urge.
5. Junior Angilau
I'm not sure that the senior starter has done anything wrong, but the emergence of Hayden Conner and true freshman Cole Hutson, along with the arrival of Campbell and a few other interior linemen, has me thinking that Angilau better step up his game or Kyle Flood might find himself tinkering with the line-up to get his best five players on the field. If everyone is healthy, Conner might be the first guard on the depth chart. If Campbell comes in and establishes himself early, what does that mean for Angilau?
6. Young players competing for time against Ochaun Mathis
I'm tempted to list Barryn Sorrell as a winner in section two of this column because he was running first-team at the Jack position during the spring game and is starting to physically look like a player ready to take a step forward. However, given the need for playmakers on defense, I'm starting to wonder more if Mathis might play more Jack than Buck when/if he arrives in an effort to get him on the field at the same time as Oghoufo. Taking Oghoufo off the field to get Mathis on absolutely represents an upgrade at the position, but it feels a little less like a huge upgrade as it did five weeks ago. The emergence of Justice Finkley at Edge in the final two weeks of camp also has strengthened up the Buck position depth and it's hard not to notice that Sorrell, David Abiara and Jordan Thomas combined for seven tackles and one tackle for loss last season (all by Sorrell). The problem with playing Mathis at Jack is that it doesn't put the pass rusher on the team in the best position to rush the passer. It would potentially make Oghoufo the most important player personnel decision going into the season on either side of the ball because the coaches cannot afford to play him extensively at Buck, only to see him not emerge as a plus-level pass rusher, while also limiting Mathis' impact.
7. Linebacker depth
Texas has been looking for a player that can step in at the middle linebacker position, but it also simply needs more depth at the position. Period. Demarvion Overshown is a plus-player at weakside linebacker, but his production levels (5.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and zero forced fumbles) need to improve this season. We can argue all day about the level on a 1-10 scale to rank Ford, but the reality is that there's nothing behind either of them right now that we could confidently call a starting-level player. This really is a position that needs an injection from the Portal, if at all possible. Otherwise, there's going to be a lot of pressure on true freshmen Derrick Brown and Travell Johnson to come in and make an immediate impact.
No. 4 - Let's talk about the two commitments from the weekend ...
On Ryan Niblett: According to the stats listed on his own Hudl page, Niblett caught only nine passes and recorded nine carries during his junior season. However, he averaged nearly 27 yards per rush and more than 32 yards per reception. So, what should tell you? Niblett isn't close to scratching the surface as a player, but when he flashes, he really freaking flashes. Speaking of flashes, Niblett posted an area-best 10.47 in the 100 meters a few days ago, while also winning his area championship in the 200 meters (21.79) and long jump (22'8), while anchoring the 4X100 relay champions (40.85). Basically, he's a slightly lesser version of Marquise Goodwin at the same stage of his development, which tells you we're not talking about a prospect in the top .01% of high school prospects in the country in terms of speed and explosiveness, but he's probably in the top .05%. This is a kid that might just have the profile of a five-star prospect by the time he's done with his senior year at Aldine Ike. There's some serious Devin Duvernay-profile in this kid.
Tre Wisner: I'm really looking forward to seeing Wisner on the field at DeSoto this season because he's so much better than the competition at Waco Connally that it's kind of hard to get a sense for just how good he is. He seems fast, but how fast? He's incredibly versatile and a player that has a skill set that could potentially thrive at the next level, but he's closer to a national 250 player than a national top 100 player for me at this point in the evaluation process. He's at the top of my list for players I'm curious to see in the 2022 season.
No. 5 - Break out the brooms ...
Thank you, Baylor. The Texas Longhorns baseball team needed a little bit of a slump-buster and you proved to be the perfect target.
Three games, three wins. A combined 46-9 scoreline. No less than 13 runs scored in any game. 14 homers.
Geez, it was as if Baylor wanted to help jump-start things for the Longhorns. It's too soon to go too crazy over a single weekend of baseball, but a three-game sweep was exactly what this team needed if it wanted to shoot itself into the conference title discussion. Yet, those three wins suddenly have the Longhorns only one game back in the loss department in the league standings.
Just keep taking care of business.
Also, let's give a shot out to the big fella, Ivan Melendez. The Orangebloods athlete hit four homers this weekend and is up to 21 on the season. He's only seven behind Kyle Russell's single-season record of 28. His .908 slugging percentage will break Tom Hamilton's record of .878 if it holds. Who is Hamilton? The Longhorns Hall of Honor inductee set a record back in 1949 and has watched no one break it in the last 73 years.
There's no way of knowing how his season is going to finish, but he's become must-see-TV in one of the greatest seasons any Texas hitter has ever enjoyed.
No. 6 - The Hit Queen ...
It was a hard-luck weekend for the Texas softball team, as the Longhorns lost a pair of one-run games against the top-10 Cowboys in Stillwater, including a nine-inning affair in game one of the series.
Still, Janae Jefferson set a record this weekend in the Big 12 that might never be broken. Only two players in the history of the Big 12 had surpassed 300 hits before the pride of Aldine Nimitz High did it this season, the first to cross the mark in the Big 12 since 2011.
Sitting at 333 with six games to go in the regular season, the Big Tournament and any NCAA Tournament games, Jefferson could push her total into the 350-range when it's all said and done.
This future Longhorns Hall of Honor inductee might not be on the level of a Cat Osterman, but there's never been a better hitter in the program.
Congrats, Janae.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I hate the idea of the entire season potentially coming down to whether a couple of freshmen linemen pull off the statistically difficult thing to do, which is to have multiple rookies emerge as leaders along the offensive line from the jump. Yes, I know Texas A&M was able to get that kind of help in year one from a couple of true freshmen, but it's not the easiest thing for me to simply bank on. Western Kentucky offensive tackle Mason Brooks, who transferred to Ole Miss, is the player that made the most sense when you consider he's a native of Cedar Park, was an all-conference player at tackle and brings a lot of size (6-6, 320+ pounds) to the table. At the very least, he takes some of the pressure away from the kids.
(Buy) Sure.
(Buy) I'm not sure of anything with Cook when it comes to announcement date because he's been all over the map at times, but sure, I could see it.
(Sell) His biggest problem is talent. He lacks pass rushers, depth/numbers at linebacker and playmakers at all three levels. What's the best scheme for that?
(Buy) He'll be the defensive coordinator by mid-season if there's no improvement.
(Sell) He's probably still away from carving out a consistent niche, but he's a player that has a future. He might need to be just a little more patient.
(Sell) Unless there are injuries, that feels a little high.
(Buy) I'm not sure why it would.
(Sell) If Mathis was that good, he'd be heading off to the NFL right now.
(Sell) It was equally evident of what we all know.
(Buy) The offensive skill guys love Sark.
(Sell) That feels like a player too much in my mind.
(Sell) I'm still comfortable with his Rivals250 status as a prospect.
(Sell) Someone else will be starting at left tackle, which could lead to some reshuffling of the entire line.
(Buy) Usually, four or five players earn all-conference honors of some degree, so I'll put Ewers in that company, even if it's not a sure thing.
(Buy) Simply put. Texas needs...
(Sell) The team went 5-7 last year and he's never won more than 8 games in his career in the regular season as a head coach. He's an elite level recruiter, but I'm not confident about anything yet.
(Buy) Absolutely. There's a linebacker out there somewhere with his name on it.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... 75,000+ Oklahoma fans paid $15 a head to watch the Oklahoma spring game. Transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel seems to have created some excitement among fans, but he went 19 of 28 for 250 yards, one touchdown and an interception. That's a 147.50 game rating for a guy that has lived in the 150s his entire career. Honestly, the quarterback situations at Texas and Oklahoma couldn't be any more different coming into the season.
... Bring on the NFL Draft. I'm almost ready.
... I'm completely okay as a Cowboys fan if Texas A&M OL Kenyon Green is the pick at No. 24. It makes a ton of sense.
... I looked at a seven round mock draft on NFL.com this weekend and it had Josh Thompson going to the Chiefs at No. 141 and no other Longhorns being drafted. Meanwhile, another 7-round mock from the weekend had Cameron Dicker going to the Cow]boys in round five and no one else in burnt orange. Yet another has Dicker with the last pick of the draft,
... Our boy Kevin Durant has had a bad week. Considering he'll be 34 next season, it feels like the decision to go to the Nets and hitch his wagons to Kyrie Irving will prove to be a big mistake.
... Ben Simmons is worthless.
... Joel Embiid playing the rest of the post-season with torn ligaments in his right thumb basically dooms the Sixers post-season upside, assuming James Harden's declining skills hadn't already done so. The Sixers are going to extend Harden and the contract is going to doom the franchise. Crap.
... At least I'll always have this...
... I miss a young Chase Utley playing for the Phillies.
... Miguel Cabrera in his prime is probably the greatest pure hitter I've ever seen in person. Let me tell you ... watching batting practice from the Green Monster at Fenway when he's batting is basically you putting your own life at risk. Yes, he hit a kid and EMS had to get involved that day.
... Enjoy the Championship, Everton. It'll be perfect for you.
... Austin FC is having a hell of a start to year No. 2, as it currently sits second in the Western Conference through eight games and has the best goal differential in all of MLS. Color me surprised.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Bon Jovi songs ...
With Bon Jovi opening the Moody Center this weekend, it seemed like a perfect time to break out my Top 10 songs from the band.
Full transparency - my pants split in half when I saw the band almost a decade ago at the Erwin Center. I don't know what that means, but it happened.
10. It's My Life
9. Never Say Goodbye
8. Living in Sin
7. Blaze of Glory
6. I'll Be There For You
5. Runaway
4. Bad Medicine
3. You Give Love A Bad Name
2. Livin ' On a Prayer
1. Wanted Dead or Alive
No. 10 - And Finally....
I suppose there's a number of ways to look at following numbers.
One one hand, more than 81-percent of those polled believe that Texas will win at least 8 games this season..
On the other hand, more than 55-percent of those polled believe it's 8-4 at best.
On yet another hand, roughly the same number of people that believe this team is going to go at least 10-2 also believe that this team will be 7-5 or worse.
Perhaps the sweep spot is right in the middle at 8.5. It feels like a proper over/under for this team in April. Personally, I'd take the under... for now.
