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A&M takes a tumble in November.. + Teams to Watch

It's a Bye Week, there is no Texas Longhorns game to prepare for or Players to Watch, next Wednesday we will chat about the Florida Gators and Freshman Quarterback D.J. Lagway out of Willis, TX. Until then, let's talk about the home stretch of the SEC, otherwise known as #OurConference.

Below I have my Pre-Season Predicted Order of Finish Ballot from SEC Media Days, as well as updated Week 10-14 Week-by-Week Game Predicted Results and Conference-by-Conference Predicted Finishes.

My Pre-Season Top 10 Teams in the SEC Ballot (Predicted Order of Finish) - (7/20/24)
  1. Ole Miss (11-1, Loss at LSU)
  2. Texas (11-1, Loss A&M)
  3. Alabama (10-2, Loss at Tennessee, Loss at Oklahoma)
  4. Georgia (9-3, Loss at Alabama, at Texas and at Ole Miss)
  5. Missouri (9-3, Loss at Alabama, Oklahoma, at South Carolina)
  6. Tennessee (9-3, Loss at NC State, Florida, at Georgia)
  7. Oklahoma (9-3, Loss Texas, at Ole Miss, at LSU)
  8. LSU (9-3, Loss at USC, Alabama, at Florida)
  9. South Carolina (8-4, Loss LSU, at Alabama, Ole Miss, at Oklahoma)
  10. Kentucky (7-5, Loss at Texas, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Georgia, South Carolina)
THOUGHTS: Boy did I mess up on Oklahoma and A&M, A&M I didn't have in my Top 10 entering the season, I didn't believe in Weigman, nor did I believe this defense was going to be nearly as dominant as they are. Apologies to all for projecting an A&M loss this summer, lol.


Projected Week-by-Week Southeastern Conference Results

Week 10 SEC Predicted Results | Week 11 SEC Predicted Results | Week 12 SEC Predicted Results

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Week 13 SEC Predicted Results | Week 14 SEC Predicted Results

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Projected Conference Final Standings

Southeastern


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BIG TEN

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ACC

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BIG 12

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MWC

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Projected Conference Championship Game Results
SEC: Texas (12-1) over Georgia (11-2)
Big Ten: Ohio State (12-1) over Oregon (12-1)
ACC: Clemson (12-1) over Miami (12-1)
Big 12: Iowa State (13-0) over BYU (11-2)
G5: Boise State (12-1) over Colorado State (9-4)

Projected Final CFP Playoff Seedings

1. Ohio State (12-1) - won big ten
2. Texas (12-1) - won sec
3. Iowa State (13-0) - won big 12
4. Clemson (12-1) - won acc

5. Oregon (12-1) - lost big ten
6. Georgia (11-2) - lost sec
7. Boise State (12-1) - won mwc
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. Tennessee (10-2) - proj. loss @ Georgia by 1-10
10. Penn State (11-1) - proj. loss vs. Ohio State by 1-7
11. Miami (12-1) - lost acc
12. Indiana (11-1) - proj. loss @ Ohio State by 1-7

First Team OUT: Alabama (10-2)

NOTE: I understand the likelihood of this being 100% correct and also understand the unlikelihood that so many teams finish with 1 loss, however I projected each and every game in each conference using playoff predictor.com, so there is no fugazi happening here, friends! Enjoy

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Top Games of the Week in College Football

Tier 1

- 3. Penn State vs. 4. Ohio State on Saturday at Noon pm ET (FOX)
- 10. Texas A&M @ South Carolina on Saturday at 7:30 pm ET (ABC)

Tier 2
- 18. Pittsburgh @ 20. SMU on Saturday at 8:00 pm ET (ACC)
- Louisville @ 11. Clemson on Saturday at 7:30 pm ET (ESPN)

Tier 3
- Minnesota @ 24. Illinois on Saturday at Noon ET (FS1)
- Kentucky @ 7. Tennessee on Saturday at 7:45 pm ET (SECN)
- San Diego State @ 15. Boise State on Friday at 8:00 pm ET (FOX)

Tier 4
- 1. Oregon @ Michigan on Saturday at 3:30 pm ET (CBS)
- 2. Georgia vs. Florida on Saturday at 3:30 pm ET (ABC)

Top 10 Losses Week over Week

- Week 1: 10. Florida State (L at Georgia Tech)
- Week 2: 10. Michigan (L vs. 3. Texas)
- Week 2: 5. Notre Dame (L vs. Northern Illinois)
- Week 3: N/A
- Week 4: N/A
- Week 5: 2. Georgia (L at 4. Alabama)
- Week 5: 6. Ole Miss (L vs Kentucky)
- Week 5: 10. Utah (L vs. Arizona)
- Week 6: 1. Alabama (L at Vandy)
- Week 6: 4. Tennessee (L at Arkansas)
- Week 6: 9. Missouri (L at 25. Texas A&M)
- Week 6: 10 Michigan (L at Washington)
- Week 7: 2. Ohio State (L vs. 3. Oregon)
- Week 7: 9. Ole Miss (L vs. 13. LSU)
- Week 8: 1. Texas (L vs. 5. Georgia)
- Week 8: 7. Alabama (L at 11. Tennessee)
- Week 9: 8. LSU (L at 14. Texas A&M)
- Week 10: TBD



Checking in on the Consensus NFL Mock Draft Database Big Board/Mock Draft ADP for BOTH Texas and It's Final Four Opponents

1st Round
  • 6th - Kelvin Banks, OT - Texas
  • 17th - Nic Scourton, EDGE - Texas A&M
  • 18th - Quinn Ewers, QB - Texas (-6)
  • 21st - Deone Walker, DT - Kentucky
  • 22nd - Isaiah Bond, WR - Texas (+2)
  • 30th - Cam Williams, OT - Texas (+9)
2nd Round
  • 47th - Landon Jackson, DL - Arkansas
  • 58th - Shemar Stewart, DL - Texas A&M
  • 59th - Jahdae Barron, DB - Texas
3rd Round
  • 69th - Maxwell Hairston, CB - Kentucky
4th Round
  • 116th - Jason Marshall Jr., CB - Florida
  • 121st - Moose Muhammad III, WR - Texas A&M
  • 125th - Gunnar Helm, TE - Texas (+8)
5th Round
  • 134th - Andrew Mukuba, S - Texas (+5)
  • 135th - Jamon Dumas-Johnson, LB - Kentucky
  • 144th - Conner Weigman, QB - Texas A&M
  • 149th - Fernando Carmona - OT - Arkansas
  • 166th - Shemar Turner, DL - Texas A&M
6th Round
  • 184th - Ethan Burke, EDGE - Texas
  • 196th - Matthew Golden, WR - Texas (-46)
  • 198th - D.J. Campbell, OG - Texas (-28)
  • 201st - Ar'Maj Reed-Adams, OL - Texas A&M
  • 208th - Cyrus Allen, WR - Texas A&M
7th Round
  • 220th - Will Lee III, CB - Texas A&M
  • 236th - Jake Slaughter, OL - Florida
  • 251st - Cashius Howell, EDGE - Texas A&M

Have a great week(end) 🤘

Coach Choice gonna earn his paycheck

I have a feeling the next four games will reveal a step up in RB play.

Having Baxter this year would’ve been great, however it’s given the opportunity to a guy like Wisner that has risen to the challenge. Blue is the complimentary back that’s a change of pace and can catch passes out in space making guys miss kinda guy.

What remains to be seen is if Gibson can be given more work. He’s second on the team in YPC and second in Rushing TD on the year.

Texas will go 4-0 the rest of the season IF they maximize the potential of the RB room.

Why Do We Think QB's Always Play Well Throughout the Entire Season?

Not only did last year's two championship game QB's have their struggles last year, but they came late in the year.

In his last 9 games last year, Michael Penix had a passer rating below 142 in 6 of them with 5 of those coming in the last 6 games.
And 4 of those were below 121.
He had a 109.8 against 3-9 Arizona State with 0 TD passes and 2 Int's.
He had a 93.8 against Michigan with 1 TD pass and 2 Int's.
In 6 of his last 10 games, he completed less than 60% of his passes.

In his last 7 games, JJ McCarthy had a passer rating below 141 in 4 of them.
In his last 5 games, he had a passer rating below 121 in 3 of them.
He had a passer rating of 95.0 against 8-5 Maryland with 0 TD passes and 1 Int.
He had a passer rating of 120.9 against Washington with 0 TD passes and 0 Int.

So how does this compare to Quinn Ewers?
I'm glad you asked and will show you in the next post.

Today’s Gift (11-3)

“Being polite and grateful will make people more inclined to help you. And if people are willing to help you, you may accidentally get something you want.” —Jason Sudeikis

Have you ever been frustrated with a business or other entity that treated you unfairly? I’ve had some really bad customer service at times and I’m not afraid to let that business know how I feel. At times, I would get pretty heated on my end of the phone when talking to someone about my issue usually due to an attitude by the rep I’m talking to; most of those times did not end well for me.

The times when I restrained my anger and was polite, I received a good outcome. It’s easy to let your emotions at the moment get the best of you, but if you take a moment to chill/calm down, you may find you will get the result you want.

Be careful out there!

Matthew 7:12

TSK

Aggys pounded by Gamey Cocks--

It was bound to happen,we all knew it would happen. It was just a matter of time. One week after playing an inspired second half at their black panty night,it was time for reality to rear its ugly head.

The aggy defense looked like it was in a greased pig contest. They tried their best to grab and hold a Cock but they were too big and slippery.

The SC running backs and QB got outside their containment at will,and they threw the ball well enough that they couldn't stack the box.

They have a QB situation there now,Weidmans teammates have given up on him due to him putting his partying ahead of the team,but is Reed really an answer,he might be if you were running the triple option offense but he isn't a passing threat that keeps anyone awake at night.

And they lost their best player to injury unfortunately, Moss was a stud,hope he isn't seriously injured but it sounds like a season ending type of injury.

It was an expected late season type of aggy meltdown,I have been seeing it for sixty years. They are who they are which is a dangerous team capable of beating or losing too anyone on any given night.

You can bet your last dollar they will give UT their best shot when we play but they were unable to go on the road and grasp and contain a gamey Cock team when it was all there for them to take,you could say they choked on a Cock (team).--utx

The Home Stretch

Currently there are five teams essentially tied for first place in the SEC with one loss.
  • Two are 5-1 (Georgia and a&m)
  • One Is 4-1 (Tennessee)
  • Two are 3-1 (Texas and LSU)
Assuming that both participants in the SEC championship will have one conference loss, that effectively eliminates all of the two-loss teams (Vandy, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri).

There are two “elimination” games amongst the leaders (Georgia/Tennessee in two weeks and Texas/a&m on T+2). Loser of those two games are out in all likelihood.

Here are the paths to 7-1 for the five remaining teams

Georgia – their two remaining games are tough ones. It starts next week @ Ole Miss followed by Tennessee at home. They will be done with the SEC in two weeks. If the Dawgs prevail in both, I can’t see them being eliminated in a tiebreaker.

a&m – aggies have a bye followed by a patsy in New Mexico State. They finish with a probable win at Auburn on 11/23 setting up a possible play-in game in College Station on 11/30.

Tennessee – a home game vs. Mississippi State next week is a tune up for a showdown on 11/16 at Georgia. If they beat Georgia, they would have to beat Vandy in Nashville on 11/30 to stay in contention for a berth in the SEC championship.

Texas – everyone knows what they must do. Win all four and they are most likely in since their tiebreakers are good for everyone except Georgia.

LSU – I don’t think LSU will run the table. They play Alabama next week at home. Roadie to Gainesville on 11/16, followed by Vandy in Baton Rouge and finishing off ou’s season on 11/30.

There are only two possible three way ties at 7-1 as the loser of the Georgia/Tennessee game becomes a two-loss team and are eliminated along with a&m.

Georgia, Texas and LSU tied

Georgia is first qualifier by virtue of beating Texas head-to-head (1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) since LSU played neither. What I don’t know is if this tiebreaker settles the tie for second-qualifier since LSU would be 0-0 and Texas would be 0-1. Texas wins the second tiebreaker (2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams) with a 5-0 record for Texas vs 4-1 for LSU.

Tennessee, Texas and LSU tied

No head-to-head. So it goes to the record vs. common opponents. Tennessee is eliminated by virtue of it’s loss to Arkansas. Texas is the home team vs. LSU from the second tiebreaker (see above).

Summary

If Texas wins out they are in versus the Tennessee/Georgia winner if LSU loses at least once. If there’s a three-way tie, Texas could be in jeopardy if Georgia and LSU are tied with them depending on how they interpret the rules. Two-loss teams could most definitely end up in the mix but I’m not going to get into those permutations. Texas needs to take care of business the next four games and they are probably in.

Bottom line. Win out and root for an LSU loss (just in case or just for fun).

The Rules
  1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
  3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
  4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
  5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
  6. Random draw of the tied teams
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