I keep seeing posts with varying themes, such as “Herman finished with two blowout wins”, “how can you fire a guy who finishes strong”, “Herman is 4-0 in bowls”, yadda yadda. To all of these posters, I would like to comment. To those of you who are as confused as I am with these posts, move along, no reason to read further.
Texas does well against single-dimensional teams with barely average to mediocre QB play, enabling the D to focus on shutting down the running game. This is no surprise. The games are easier to control. Defensive lapses are not as painful. For example, Colorado was no match for Texas' team speed. The turnovers and the focus on stopping the run enabled the defense to control the game and get off the field. Eventually, our offense wore out their defense. Whether it’s a close game or a blowout ultimately depends on our offensive production. And Casey let loose in the 2nd half. Likewise, Kansas State was neutered when it lost its starting QB. So Texas dominated them. These are the two games Herman closed out 2020 with. Looks great on the scoreboard and on paper, but we need to look elsewhere under the covers.
1-3 against Patterson. 1-4 against OU. Last two games against Iowa State = losses. Many close wins in what we’ve come to describe on OB as “coin-flip games,” meaning they could have gone either way and Texas is simply not leveraging whatever talent advantage it has or should have. Now why is that? In the Big 12, it's about scheming, coaching, in-game decisions, match-ups, getting receivers open, accurate downfield passing and avoiding tells because most QBs in the conference are competent and able to put up serious numbers and – most importantly – drive for a score when they need to. Against good QBs, Texas struggles to gain separation, hence, the so-called coin flip games. Herman consistently fails to maximize his talent, leaves points on the field, makes strange in-game decisions (including ridiculous 4th down gambles), has his QB (Sam) throw low-percentage passes to receivers who don’t get separated, and runs his offense through spells in which it appears to be predictable or features play calling that is almost certain to result in a 3 and out. Combine that with defensive lapses and you’ve got a sustainable one-score game.
As for TCU, Patterson is simply a better coach than Herman and when Tom’s usual in-game mismanagement occurs, Gary finds a way to win. Yes, Keaontay fumbled but my point is that the game should have never come down to that one play. But Herman Ball ensures that it does. As long as Herman coaches the way he does, Patterson will have an “I’ll beat you with mine or we’ll trade squads and I’ll still beat you with yours” relationship with him. As for Reilly, Lincoln Is on a different level than Tom and Tom will never close the gap. No need to elaborate on that, other than to say that 1-4 equates to 2-10, meaning, yeah, we’ll beat two times out of every 10 games we play them. And I don't see that changing. Regarding Iowa State, the problem once again is Herman Ball. Close games + a QB who can get a score when he needs to = flip a coin.
Finally there is recruiting. If you’ve kept up on OB, you’ll see that this is the crux of the problem with Herman. It is taking a dive. Tom may be on the cusp of cashing in with HIS recruits but next year will we see more points left on the field? Bijan sitting out the second quarter? Play calling that abandons what’s working for a strange mixture of plays that leaves heads shaking? Poor clock management? Reckless gambles? These and other components of Herman Ball keep games close in the Big-12 when opposing QBs can score at will. One important feature of Herman Ball is that the play calling and clock mis-management often results in a tired defense on the field at the end of the game with the expectation of making the game-winning stop. That formula doesn’t work in the Big-12. In summary, Herman Ball leads to two or three losses a year in games Texas should win.
So when you start talking about Herman coming back, ask yourself a question: Are you expecting a different result?
Here is my take: Even if Casey ends up being an upgrade at QB (and the 2nd half against Colorado indicates that is possible), Herman Ball sets a ceiling on what’s possible. As it does, recruiting will continue to spiral down.
If Herman stays, I will just say that Urban Meyer made three statements that Tom should study incessantly during the off-season and, if necessary, give Urban a call to ask for an explanation:
Texas does well against single-dimensional teams with barely average to mediocre QB play, enabling the D to focus on shutting down the running game. This is no surprise. The games are easier to control. Defensive lapses are not as painful. For example, Colorado was no match for Texas' team speed. The turnovers and the focus on stopping the run enabled the defense to control the game and get off the field. Eventually, our offense wore out their defense. Whether it’s a close game or a blowout ultimately depends on our offensive production. And Casey let loose in the 2nd half. Likewise, Kansas State was neutered when it lost its starting QB. So Texas dominated them. These are the two games Herman closed out 2020 with. Looks great on the scoreboard and on paper, but we need to look elsewhere under the covers.
1-3 against Patterson. 1-4 against OU. Last two games against Iowa State = losses. Many close wins in what we’ve come to describe on OB as “coin-flip games,” meaning they could have gone either way and Texas is simply not leveraging whatever talent advantage it has or should have. Now why is that? In the Big 12, it's about scheming, coaching, in-game decisions, match-ups, getting receivers open, accurate downfield passing and avoiding tells because most QBs in the conference are competent and able to put up serious numbers and – most importantly – drive for a score when they need to. Against good QBs, Texas struggles to gain separation, hence, the so-called coin flip games. Herman consistently fails to maximize his talent, leaves points on the field, makes strange in-game decisions (including ridiculous 4th down gambles), has his QB (Sam) throw low-percentage passes to receivers who don’t get separated, and runs his offense through spells in which it appears to be predictable or features play calling that is almost certain to result in a 3 and out. Combine that with defensive lapses and you’ve got a sustainable one-score game.
As for TCU, Patterson is simply a better coach than Herman and when Tom’s usual in-game mismanagement occurs, Gary finds a way to win. Yes, Keaontay fumbled but my point is that the game should have never come down to that one play. But Herman Ball ensures that it does. As long as Herman coaches the way he does, Patterson will have an “I’ll beat you with mine or we’ll trade squads and I’ll still beat you with yours” relationship with him. As for Reilly, Lincoln Is on a different level than Tom and Tom will never close the gap. No need to elaborate on that, other than to say that 1-4 equates to 2-10, meaning, yeah, we’ll beat two times out of every 10 games we play them. And I don't see that changing. Regarding Iowa State, the problem once again is Herman Ball. Close games + a QB who can get a score when he needs to = flip a coin.
Finally there is recruiting. If you’ve kept up on OB, you’ll see that this is the crux of the problem with Herman. It is taking a dive. Tom may be on the cusp of cashing in with HIS recruits but next year will we see more points left on the field? Bijan sitting out the second quarter? Play calling that abandons what’s working for a strange mixture of plays that leaves heads shaking? Poor clock management? Reckless gambles? These and other components of Herman Ball keep games close in the Big-12 when opposing QBs can score at will. One important feature of Herman Ball is that the play calling and clock mis-management often results in a tired defense on the field at the end of the game with the expectation of making the game-winning stop. That formula doesn’t work in the Big-12. In summary, Herman Ball leads to two or three losses a year in games Texas should win.
So when you start talking about Herman coming back, ask yourself a question: Are you expecting a different result?
Here is my take: Even if Casey ends up being an upgrade at QB (and the 2nd half against Colorado indicates that is possible), Herman Ball sets a ceiling on what’s possible. As it does, recruiting will continue to spiral down.
If Herman stays, I will just say that Urban Meyer made three statements that Tom should study incessantly during the off-season and, if necessary, give Urban a call to ask for an explanation:
- “Play your best players all the time, every time when the game is on the line.”
- "Your offense must protect your defense."
- “You can’t be average and make the CFP.”
