One of the board's future Hall of Fame members @El Mahico made a post on Friday with discussion that centered on the looming final results of the defensive class taken in Steve Sarkisian's first full recruiting cycle in 2022.
Texas took 15 defensive players in the Class of 2022, yet as we head into the fourth seasons for the players in that class, only two remain on campus - nickel corner Jaylon Guilbeau and edge Ethan Burke.
So, what happened? Poor evaluations? Poor development? Simple math?
The answer is probably a combination of all those things, while a loud bell also rings that signals the importance of securing super blue chips in every recruiting cycle.
What I would offer before we get deep into the weeds is that one of two things (or both!) must happen in order for programs to compete for championships.
a. A school signs so many elite prospects that the math works out for them through sheer volume. If you're signing 5 super blue chips per year and land 20 in a 4-year cycle, you're likely to land between 8-12 high level college players/high-level NFL prospects at all times in the program before you even get into the other 75-80% of the roster.
Ohio State didn't hit on all of its super blue chips, but the volume it signed allowed it to emerge with players like Jeremiah Smith, Jack Sawyer, Emeka Egbuka, Donovan Jackson, TreVeyon Henderson and JT Tuimoloau to spearhead a championship charge.
b. A school develops non-super blue chips at a success rate higher than national averages.
When Charlie Strong was having success at Louisville, it occurred because he was developing four-stars at the success rate of five-stars and three stars at the success rate of the highest non-super blue chip four stars. It's often a subtle thing, but when you're turning 1 out of 2 four stars into an NFL player instead of 1 out of 4 or 5, you can make a pretty bad ass team by the time you enter year four as a coach.
Take a look at Jim Harbaugh's success at Michigan before returning to the NFL and you'll find that Michigan tapped into a cheat code in terms of player development.
When you look at Texas' results from the 2022 class, you'll simply find that Texas mostly developed its players from the class at national norms, which isn't automatically terrible, but it's certainly not the kind of production that will lead you to competing for championships if you're not recruiting at an elite level, which we now that Texas has been doing on both sides of the ball in the last 4 recruiting cycles.
Let's break it all down....
The three-stars...
The math on this tier of player is that you're likely going to hit on anywhere between 1 out of 8 to 1 out of 12 of these on the average in terms of them developing them into NFL players.
Texas went 0 for 5. This isn't a statistical outlier. If the Longhorns had signed another 3-5 three-stars, they probably would have struck gold with one of them, but this is what it looks like in 2025 when you take three-stars at a program that is competing at an elite level. None of these guys have proven to be plus-players anywhere at this point and 4 of the 5 hit the portal before the end of year two in Austin. A couple of these guys (Johnson and Brown) were gone almost before they arrived.
Low 4-stars (5.8-rated)
The math says that you roughly hit on one out of 5 (20%) with this tier and guess what... Texas hit 1 out of 5.
The results are absolutely in line with the national averages. It will sound like a small thing, but consistently hitting 2 out of 5 in every class with this tier of prospects would be a pretty huge sign of championship development.
Mid 4-stars (5.9-rated)
The math says that you roughly hit one out of 4 (25%) with this tier and guess what... Texas hit 1 out of 4.
Everything that was said about the previous 5.8 tier is true with this one. You only need to consistently. hit 2 out of 4 to get the math really working in your favor, but it didn't happen in this class.
Finally, the super blue chip... High 4-star (6.0-rated)
The math says you'd probably hit 40% of the time with a super blue chip defensive back at the high 4 star level and Texas rolled snake-eyes, even if he did emerge as a starter before leaving via the Portal last spring.
Overall, the Longhorns only signed 3 combined super blue chips in the entire class based on the Rivals rankings and they hit big on one (Kelvin Banks), hit solidly on another (D.J. Campbell) and missed on the other (Brooks).
Again, these results basically fall in line with what the annual averages tell you to expect.
*****
Bottom line - none of this should surprise you if you've read my historical analysis work over the course of the las decade.
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